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Wednesday, 22nd October 2008

There are still plenty of hurdles in Brown's way

Peter Hoskin 6:04pm

Recession.  Glenrothes.  Unimpressive poll gains.  Whilst Gordon Brown may be enjoying the recent, Mandelson-orchesrated hijinks, there are certainly plenty of potential blots on his horizon.  Martin Bright adds a relatively undernoticed - but oh-so-significant - one to the list, in his latest blog post:

"The polling remains dismal for Labour, though. The government’s electoral recovery is slipping despite admiration for Brown’s handling of the crisis within the Westminster village. The latest Guardian/ICM poll had the Conservatives on 42 per cent and Labour on 30 – a 12-point gap, which remains unchanged from the same poll a month ago.

As we move towards this winter’s pre-Budget report, the thoughts of Labour backbenchers will turn once more to the package the Chancellor has prepared to compensate their constituents for the abolition of the 10p tax rate and measures to protect people against the ravages of the credit crunch. As the rebel MP Frank Field has noted, there is plenty of scope for critics of the Prime Minister to regroup if the measures are not seen to be adequate."

To my mind, a second 10p tax rebellion - should it happen - could well be more damaging to the Government than the first.  Not only might it fuel the idea that the original compensation package was inadequate, but the claim that Brown & Darling aren't looking out for low-income earners becomes even more caustic as the economy nosedives.

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C Powell

October 22nd, 2008 6:45pm Report this comment

This is what I posted on an earlier thread. All the hoo-hah about this non-story ignores what really bothers voters and what so annoys them about the nasty little games Labour is playing.

But what bothers me more is that it is clear that Brown views the economic mess we're in as a wonderful opportunity for him to save his job - and stuff the voters - and that Mandy was brought back to save his skin - not to save the economy or help the voters. This is what the Tories should be saying at every possible opportunity. Labour are playing games for their own advantage with the very real fears which voters have about whether they'll have a job, whether their savings will be obliterated by inflation, how they're going to pay the bills, what future their children face, etc... We need David and others - I favour David Davis - to make these points and to make much much more of what the outgoing DPP said yesterday about Labour's assault on civil liberties, a far more important story than Osborne's holiday plans.

What's more this evening we've heard that courts will be forbidden from repossessing houses unless other alternatives have been explored, as if this was some wonderful new policy from Gordon for which we should all be grateful I suppose. What rubbish: that's the law and practice at the moment and, in any case, as Northern Rock shows, if banks are going to become healthy again they have to recover debts. Nothing can - ultimately - stop repossessions if people do not have an income or savings with which to pay the mortgage. A brutal fact but true and it is this Government which has made it harder for people now to keep the job they have, find a new one or have any worthwhile level of savings.

You all need to get out in the real world a bit more: the commentators as well as MPs.

Pete, Scotland

October 22nd, 2008 7:16pm Report this comment

I think this underestimates the sheer persuasive power on the media of Manselson & Campbell with Blair pulling strings in the background.

'THEY' will dictate the narrative and the media will report it verbatim, as they do!

Unless Cameron provides a STRONGER one.

Pete, Scotland

October 22nd, 2008 7:34pm Report this comment

Just thinking, Brown has 'resurrected' New Labours big guns to the front line in a desperate attempt to stay in power.

Cameron has to at least match that, out manoeuvre them or face defeat!

At the moment New Labour seem the sharper and more powerful of the two.

TrevorsDen

October 22nd, 2008 9:14pm Report this comment

Labour sharper? its all pretty shallow really (unless you are in the business of writing TV news headlines)

As the economy nosedived Browns ratings went with it.

As other economies nosedived Brown tries to turn round and say well its not my fault its some 'world' problem. He hopes this will help his ratings. Its an attempt to blur the disastrous decisions of the last 11 years.

That line can only go so far. The real economy will intrude.

1 - he never pointed to benign world circumstances when things were bad - and he never planned for when things would turn down.

2- Because we entered this recession with a rising deficit there is little scope for raising borrowing more without affecting Sterling. We have already seen that effect in the last two days.

3 - The more spending the less any interest rate cuts. Is yet another Labour govt going to end in a Sterling Crisis - this would be death for Brown.

But I agree with C.Powell - this is not about doing the right thing for Britain -- this is about preserving Brown.

4- For all the govts urgings - banks are bound to be more circumspect in their borrowing and will need a good rate of return to rebuild their balance sheets and pay back govt loans.

This seems to be what people are forgetting - Banks have receive huge amounts of money but at penal rates - this must be a drag on them.
The engine of recovery - loans, re-mortgaging, house buying, house refurbishment, buying - SPENDING - is going to be much lower than all the debt bubble which got us into this mess.

The recovery may not be as sweet as some are implying.
And of course all this wad of govt borrowing must be paid for --- how on earth can it be in time for the next twist of the cycle?

Alex R

October 22nd, 2008 9:21pm Report this comment

Remember: the compensation offered for the 10p tax change for only for a second year; it is not an on going change.

p.s. where is my t-shirt pete?

hadrian

October 22nd, 2008 10:35pm Report this comment

It is also devoutly to be hoped Labour get a drubbing in Glenrothes.However the media up here are thus far much more reticent about the constituency campaigning than they were in Glasgow East- one does wonder why! Let's hope bruiser Alex Salmond gets it across loud and clear to voters that Broon's UK is NOT the agency of Scottish salvation Broon's been trying so hard to peddle. Tory that I am, I find that message from Broon utter, insulting trash as he drags us ever more deeply into public debt..how long indeed before IMF are called in again?

John Moss

October 23rd, 2008 8:01am Report this comment

Brooks Newmark did a really good job of defining the true picture of national debt. £1.8 trillion!

Brown needs this pinning to his tail in every mention.

"Gordon Brown's £1.8 trillion debt mountain" sounds like a good soundbite to hit out with at every opportunity.

Sam Armstrong

October 31st, 2008 9:44am Report this comment

pete, scotland, i totally agree.

cameron's and the tories voices are drowned out by labour's spin.

when on earth are they going to take the gloves off and start the narrative of common sense?

if cameron began to understand what most decent people WANT, wasn't afraid to be more right wing, he would blaze ahead in the polls and provide a counter argument that was clear and powerful.

we are now at the point where labour can be finally demolished and exposed. i do wish the tories would grow some balls.

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