Encouraging signs for both Labour and the Tories
Peter Hoskin 10:05am
Today's ComRes poll for the Independent has the Tories on 39 percent (down 1 from the ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday a couple of weeks back); Labour on 31 percent (no change); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (no change). That means the Tory lead has been more than halved in the past two months, and that they're now in hung parliament territory - all encouraging enough for Labour.
But despite the "Brown bounces back" headline in the Indy, there's no need for the Tories to get disheartened just yet. This poll was conducted in the aftermath not only of the most positive coverage Brown's received since the early days of his premiership, but also of the Yachtgate scandal - perhaps indicating that George Osborne's "mistake" in Corfu hasn't cost the party too dear (although, on that front, we'll get a fuller picture as more polls are released). And then there are the blots on Brown's horizon, which threaten to spoil our PM's second honeymoon period.
As Tim Montgomerie argues over at ConservativeHome, the key for the Tories now is to develop a more coherent response to the economic downturn. If they can manage that, then there's every chance that Brown's upwards momentum will be arrested.
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Lord Elvis of Paisley
October 28th, 2008 12:45pm Report this commentI'm just stunned that 31% of the the people polled would still vote for that shower considering what they've done to this country's finances, and consequently their own personal wealth.
Travis Bickle
October 28th, 2008 2:33pm Report this commentLord Elvis
Most people haven't even started to feel the pain that Brown's recession has lined up for them, however since the BBC have only just fallen short of announcing that their man can walk on water and turn said water into wine at the same time then 31% shows just how much informed public opinion has turned against Brown.
Lord Elvis of Paisley
October 28th, 2008 3:09pm Report this commentYou talking to me?
J H Holloway
October 28th, 2008 3:58pm Report this commentIt's not in hung parliament territory, gents. Look at this
http://www.psr.keele.ac.uk/area/uk/ge05/maj.htm
The Tories were just 33 or so seats from a hung parliament (Howard's amazing achievement will seen, one day).
Add in boundary changes and the current lead in the polls...and I think the endless talk of hung parliaments is wrong.
The reason, to my way of thinking, is that voting swings are not always universal. In 1979 election swings to Mrs T were double digit in the south, low single digit in the North West and away from the Conservatives in Scotland.
Dave and Co will win, they just need a decent song sheet for the post-crunch period.
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