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Wednesday, 29th October 2008

Bluntness was the order of the day

Peter Hoskin 4:31pm

PMQs today must have been a political version of that optical illusion where one person sees a young woman and the other an old woman. Fraser saw a pretty unimpressive David Cameron, whereas I thought it one of his very best performances.  And, if CoffeeHousers will indulge me, here’s why...

My verdict sprang from what I saw as the main Tory goal today: to stop Brown's "Borrowing is good" narrative taking root in the public consciousness. This is beyond crucial. After all, if Brown can successfully make that case then he'll have largely won the economic argument for the next two years - during which borrowing will rise out of both necessity, during a recession, and our PM's wider addiction to debt.  I'd say, then, that Cameron did the right thing by mostly laying into the government's plan to make the fiscal rules more "flexible", to allow for more borrowing.  Some of his lines were bluntly effective (cf "The PM has been caught irreponsibly spinning about irresponsible spending") and - should they get airtime in the media - will undermine Brown's new defining irony: that prudence is somehow imprudent. 

Sure, this meant PMQs was especially adversarial and unnuanced today, and that the Tories didn't outline their alternative policy response to the downturn.  They will certainly have to - and sooner rather than later. Indeed, as I've written before, it's astonishing that they don't seem to have one already.  But today was different, for two reasons: 1) PMQs is theatre, and very rarely the venue for fleshing out policy visions, and 2) Allowing Brown's "responsible borrowing vs. irresponsible spending" narrative to take hold could seriously constrain Tory policy in advance, just as the "Labour investment vs Tory cuts" line constrained any proper debate about tax and spend.

The points Cameron made today are ones to which he will have to keep returning.  But, for the time being, he's struck a first blow.  The challenge now is to detail an alternative policy approach.  Hop to it, Mr Cameron.

P.S. We've put up footage of the party leader exchanges, so you can make your own mind up.  Watch it here.

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Mark

October 29th, 2008 5:34pm Report this comment

I agree with you, Peter.

And, apart from backbench morale, the main point of PMQ's is the bit that gets on telly (if any bit does).

That is why, for example, in his first few weeks as prime minister, Brown made a point of issuing some headline-grabbing announcement (e.g. no "super casino") each Wednesday.

Keith

October 29th, 2008 5:58pm Report this comment

At last, the signs of a Tory fightback!!

Pat

October 29th, 2008 6:23pm Report this comment

Well, we got the labour investment- and now we're getting the returns on that investment.

David

October 29th, 2008 6:25pm Report this comment

I agree, too. The media coverage afterwards has focused on exactly the issue I presume Cameron hoped it would; questioning whether borrowing is indeed good.

David Lindsay

October 29th, 2008 6:27pm Report this comment

"Oh, so if it was 10 years ago, then it doesn't count?", sneered Cameron at PMQs.

Well, George Osborne must certainly hope so...

Incidentally, how did Keynes pronounce his own surname? And if "Kaynes", then why is it Milton "Keenes"?

RODEST

October 29th, 2008 6:32pm Report this comment

Peter, I think the big problem that the opposition parties have with this government (who have been grossley inept for many years) is that each time they announce their policies Nulabour hijack them claiming they were their ideas.

The opposition are aware of this Nulabour strategy and they need to concentrate on highlighting the contradictions in Browns ever changing policies.

Brown seems to dismiss the fact that what he has already spent and what he will borrow in the future will have to be paid back by the ordinary taxpayer.

This is a point I think Cameron needs to focus on, particularly the hardship of people already deep in debt. The prospect of higher taxes for a very long period after this recession has past will make life unberable for millions of people.

R Mason

October 29th, 2008 7:13pm Report this comment

Brown has invested massively in creating a large constituency in the civil service, local authorites, Quangos, benefit claiments, immigrants, etc. that are dependent on high taxes, and there are quite a few around who have bought the 'disaster exported from the US' line. If he did what he should - cut spending and reduce taxes - he would have to reverse everything he believes in and has done for the last 11 years, ie, increase the size of the state at the expense of the private sector and risk losing his constituency. He also knows that borrowing as a strategy is unsustainable in the long term, ie, till 2010 so I expect that he intends to lie his way through the next few few months and call a GE before the sh!t hits the fan, leave everything to the Tories with a much smaller majority so they will struggle which he will say is their fault and then, if they fall, he will be back in!!

ChrisD

October 29th, 2008 7:15pm Report this comment

"My verdict sprang from what I saw as the main Tory goal today: to stop Brown's "Borrowing is good" narrative taking root in the public consciousness."

That is exactly why I agree with you on this point. I read Fraser's analysis of PMQ's today with growing disbelief. Didn't bother to post because I would have simple been lazy and lifted my point from the comments thread of his article on sloganeering.

Brown is going to fight for his political life on the mantra that responsible borrowing is good and irresponsible cuts are bad.
When I saw Clegg's question today, I saw him digging an even bigger hole for his party. You don't give Brown any ammunition to distract or back up his strategy in this way. Instead you oppose and undermine his argument over and over again until its firmly based in the electorates mind.

Brown is being dishonest, but then he got away with it for so long back in the old days when ever the Tories regularly walked into this gaping black hole of trap. Brown is banking on the Tories making that mistake again.

I don't want the media focussed on some alternative economic strategy from the Tories, I want them fully focussed on what this government is doing right now. If the Tories deliver a contrast being sought by some journalists, they take the heat and the attention away from the mistakes being made by the government.

It might give some on here the chance to shine as they show off their economic knowledge, buts its not good long term politics for an opposition party to be distracted enough to end up with a corner rather than a goal.

There is a lot of bad news still to come, and I expect the great illusionist Gordon Brown to start re announcing spending plans just like the old days.
I wonder if he has already started using this trick with the supposed announcement of £700 million pounds for military vehicles? Won't hold my breath to see if the media check this out properly though.

Henry Rogers

October 29th, 2008 7:37pm Report this comment

David Lindsay,
I've always heard economists say 'Kaynes'. He was their fellow tribesman after all!

Quite why a village in the general area of Bletchley was chosen to give its name to the new town/city is another story, but MK is always pronounced 'Keens'.

10 years is a great deal more recent than some of the events Mr Brown uses in his arguments. I thought the poor chap looked decidedly ground down today, the 'hyper' phase of a week or so back seems to have gone. You can see why parliamentary sessions get shorter and shorter.

On the whole I think Peter's analysis convinces me more than Nelson's does today. Perhaps a boring slugging match really was Cameron's best tactic, though I suppose all of us, regardless of party allegance, would much prefer brilliant debate with extemporary argument matched to extemporary argument and nothing recited from memory or a briefing folder.

Pete, Scotland

October 29th, 2008 8:01pm Report this comment

Depends on who the intended audience was.

He still talks like somebody in a debating society, scoring technical points.

Thatchers 'good household budget' stuff was much better and more effective.

Every household in the land could understand that.

You can agree or disagree with her politics but she got that message across nice and clear, and that made her a winner.

Nicholas

October 29th, 2008 8:15pm Report this comment

Yes, the £700m for new and improved military vehicles announced in response to a planted question. £700m that should have been spent on new and improved vehicles before soldiers were sent to die in crap ones by the same government that embroiled them in two wars.

Interesting piece of theatre. I hope it is put under the intense scrutiny it deserves.

Ken

October 29th, 2008 8:33pm Report this comment

In all honesty why would any sane opposition party want to win power just as atomic fallout hits with full force? Five more years of hard labour would properly punish and destroy McRuin's marxists forever.

Pete, Scotland

October 29th, 2008 9:00pm Report this comment

"This is beyond crucial."

What is beyond crucial is that New Labour (Brown) start getting some negative headlines.

Somebody has to step up to the mark on this.

Paul Lettan

October 29th, 2008 9:16pm Report this comment

I would propose caution here. The Conservatives should pay especial attention to what is happening in the United States. Obama has built up a formidable election operation based on a different discourse. It would be a mistake to underestimate the influence of Galbraith in the north American psyche. He is undergoing a revival in both Republican and Democrat circles. McCain's espousal of knee jerk neo-liberalism isn't exactly an unqualified success.

Chris

October 29th, 2008 9:46pm Report this comment

>Incidentally, how did Keynes pronounce his own surname? And if "Kaynes", then why is it Milton "Keenes"?

Milton Keynes isn't named after Keynes (or Milton.)

Pete, Scotland

October 29th, 2008 9:57pm Report this comment

Just read Osborne's letter in the Telegraph.

So many words with such little meaning.

How on earth do they expect anybody to vote for that lot of nonesense.

Do they think we are stupid?

Paul Lettan

October 29th, 2008 11:07pm Report this comment

Re: Keynes pronunciation

why not ask his son who works with the Charles Darwin Trust (named after his grandfather) in Highbury. You may find it rhymes with 'keens' not 'canes'!

Quadratus

October 29th, 2008 11:09pm Report this comment

Pete,Scotland 9.57p.m.

Yes,obviously.

Travis Bickle

October 30th, 2008 9:09am Report this comment

They know the electorate are stupid , which is why so many among us seem to think that the still clearly stark naked Emperor Brown has suddenly emerged in a new set of clothes.

Steve

October 30th, 2008 9:11am Report this comment

Pete, Scotland.

Got it in one. We live in a country that has freely voted in the party of economic illiteracy and historical failure. The winner of the next election must appeal to millions who cannot think beyond the next pint of lager.

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