Could McCain's Pennsylvania gamble be paying off?
James Forsyth 12:52pm
Last night’s Barack Obama infomercial was a typically high-quality, well produced Obama product. There wasn’t much in it that was audacious but it sold the Obama message effectively and made him appear a safe choice. But this morning, spirits will have been raised in the McCain camp by a new poll which shows him within four points in Pennsylvania, a blue state that McCain now probably has to win to get to 270.
This is the first bit of good polling news the McCain campaign has had in a while. However, the other polling numbers out today are really grim for McCain—he is even trailing in North Carolina and another poll has him down by double-digits in the Keystone state. Obama remains the overwhelming favourite to be elected president on November 4th but there is a glimmer of hope for McCain today in this poll.
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David
October 30th, 2008 1:10pm Report this commentReaching, much?
Scott Redding
October 30th, 2008 2:31pm Report this commentIt's only a glimmer if McCain sweeps a number of other states. If anything, it suits the Obama campaign for McCain to be fixated on Pennsylvania ... they can then concentrate on Florida, Colorado, Missouri, NC and Virginia in the closing week.
CG
October 30th, 2008 2:36pm Report this commentOther polls in Penn show him way behind. Mason-dixon's weighting is generally favourable to Republican Party so is likely to show a closer race.
RMH
October 30th, 2008 2:45pm Report this commentSome detail on the polling compnay.
* Michigan - In their Sept. 18 - 23 poll, Mason-Dixon showed Michigan tied, even though polls released at the same time showed the race +5, +7, +7, +8, +10, and +13 in the state
* New Mexico - In their August 13 - 15 poll, they showed McCain up 4% when other polls at the time showed Obama up 4%, 6%, and 13%
* Virginia - In their Oct. 20 - 21 poll, they showed only a 2% Obama lead when other polls at the time showed Obama leads of 10%, 6%, 10%, 9%, 9%, and 8%
THEY ARE WAY OFF AND ARE A GOP POLLING FIRM
THX1138
October 30th, 2008 3:17pm Report this comment"Could McCain's Pennsylvania gamble be paying off?" No
Before you all get excited it's an outlier and it still gives Obama a +4 Lead in Pennsylvania and Mason Dixon has a Republican lean of at least 3% so it's really +7
From Republican leaning RCP the current PA polls are as follows:
NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama +4
Morning Call Obama +11
CNN/Time Obama +12
Rasmussen Obama +7
Marist Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition Obama +9
538.com non partisan model gives McCain a 2% chance of carrying Pennsylvania
Next.
Matthew Blott
October 30th, 2008 5:23pm Report this comment@THX1138
You made my point for me.
I remember the Daily Mail carrying a front page headline referencing some spurious poll on election day '97 suggesting there were loads of undecideds that could tip things the Tories way. You'll always get those that never know when the game is up.
Reg
October 30th, 2008 7:41pm Report this commentPolls shmolls
Joe P.
October 30th, 2008 8:14pm Report this commentLET'S assume that all the polls showing obama winning are correct. That there's going to be a landslide Dem victory. The natural question becomes:
WHY AREN'T THE POLLS SHOWING OBAMA LEADING BY MORE POINTS THAN 3 TO 9...??
And: WHEN IS OBAMA GOING TO PULL AWAY (IN THESE POLLS)?
Plus,IF MCCAIN IS A GONER, WHY HASN'T HE DIPPED MORE in points( LIKE, GO BENEATH 40)??
If this a landslide for obama, it's certainly a reluctant landslide.
RMH
October 31st, 2008 8:52am Report this commentJoe.P.
Landslides do not work very well in EV terms, as each should get 150 each to begin with anyway.
Add in teh fact that McCain will get another 40 or so from his better states, he will end up with 211 EVs.
The whole debate revolves around 10 states pretty much, and it is who wins those who dictates who wins the race.
derek
October 31st, 2008 5:40pm Report this commentJames - why is almost everything you write trying to wrench something positive about McRage or trying to wish him good polling numbers?
He is yesterday's man. Stop sounding like a Texan.
Reg
October 31st, 2008 6:31pm Report this commentDerek, only a malignant narcissist with the ability to disbelieve the evidence of his own senses could accuse James Forsyth of plugging McCain.
James has been obediently trotting in step with the MSM since this election began.
Why on earth have you decided that the Spectator is the place for you to disseminate your infantile distortions?
(Don't respond - I'm not interested).
derek
November 1st, 2008 2:36pm Report this commentReg - go into a dark room and lie down. Wake up on the 5th. To a bright new world. I will be waiting.
News Tip
November 2nd, 2008 4:31pm Report this commentStrange News Tip: Bob Barr Winning According to Official PA State Gov Site
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
Election results were last updated 11/2/2008 10:50 AM.
BARR, BOB (LIB)
144,930 50.3%
Runningmate: ROOT, WAYNE A.
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)
39,433 13.7%
Runningmate: BIDEN, JOE
MCCAIN, JOHN (REP)
68,984 23.9%
Runningmate: PALIN, SARAH
NADER, RALPH (IND)
35,003 12.1%
Runningmate: GONZALEZ, MATT
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
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