A lack of clarity

TrevorsDen

I am at a loss to understand your headline or your conclusion. Osborne's comments seem totally apposite. Lower interest rates with excessive government spending constrained to prevent a run on the pound.

The 'campaigning' of Brown you refer to is a mixture of lies and irresponsible policies.

If telling the truth is not politically sexy then that is because the media -- ie YOU -- are not doing their job properly.

We can certainly expect the BBC to ignore the reality behind what Osborne is saying but for the responsible press to actually COMPLAIN? Really quite pathetic.

mart

I know it's semantics Fraser, but would you agree with me:

The phrase used above is "getting money into their pockets through the tax system".

I say: let's get the constitutional order of things right here. It's not getting money into people's pockets. It's taking less money from people.

This is fundamental. I am surprised and a bit dimayed that the Tories, supposedly the party of the right, are talking in terms of the state being the benefactor.

In light of the current shocks to the economy, the time is ripe to correct this misapprehension of the role of government.

I hope the Tories don't continue to talk in terms of what they can do to stimulate the economy. Because, they can only really achieve what's needed by not doing so much, and thereby lowering the tax burden.

I'll believe the suggestions of tax cuts when I hear what spending it is the government is going to cancel so it can balance the books.

M Dowding

How goes the pleasure of spending Murdoch's 30 pieces of silver, Fraser? I watched your repeat of this article on The Daily Politics/Government daily dose of propaganda programme. Double digit poll leads are out there at REAL elections. If you or anyone else believe the borrow to bribe policy will work, you are just pushing that awful man, Murdoch's line. I wonder what Brown and Co. have promised your erstwhile boss? My money is on an even greater influence over the BBC. As for you pundits, you just have no inkling of the suffering in the real world and no problem with accepting the money being dragged from tax payers just as long as Jack is fat, dumb and happy. A plague on all your houses. George Osborne is worth a thousand of your ilk. I doubt this will be published. Too off message?

Mark Demmen

'Responsibility' is a rather empty term, whose definition depend upon one's moral, political and economic framework. Hence both Osborne and Bown can use it and leave us none the wiser. The Tory leadership have got to tell the electorate what their framework is, in a clear, concise narrative, and put an end to their constant triangulation.

Hugh

Fraser,
I have jsut been reading Labour's attack dossier. They say that their single hospital rooms cost £ 211k each. Surely this is a real statistic proving profligacy. An ensuite room should not need more than 30 sq metres which at £ 120 psqm is roughly what it should cost. They admit to needing to double it for specialist equipment, though surely they could re-use what is already ther, but £ 7000 per square metre. Wow! Is this what they are going to waste everyone's money on in the JMK splurge, or does it show up clearly their loose connection to reality.

MB Reiser

Let's face it, Osborne is the Tory counterpart of Darling - another lightweight. We need front bench people who can make contributions that have some substance, rather than mere political rhetoric.
As long as Cameron selects his team based on personal friendship rather than ability, people will see the Tories as offering no real alternative.

Short the UK

If I was a Tory strategist here is my killer attack line:

The Fake Decade = debt in government and householdes. Property debt, personal debt.

As the economy collapses over the next six months the FAKE DECADE will stick to New Labour like tar.

Attack!!!

Ricardo

OK so let's get this straight:

(1) You can't have more spending, because it doesn't work;
(2) but you can't really have less spending because that would be dangerous in a recession (apart from some minor cuts on advertising and consultants, because nobody likes them and we don't care if they have a recession); and

(3) you can't have tax rises, because that would be damaging; but
(4) you can't have tax cuts, because that would be irresponsible - unless they're "fully funded" which means tax cuts which don't actually cut any tax, apart from some token victims noted in (2) above;

(5) you can't have more borrowing, because we can't afford it;
(6) but you won't be getting less borrowing, for the reasons noted above

so therefore:

(7) we'll just pass it all over to Mervyn to solve.

Thank you, LSE, for the tea.

Sean

Nelson,

I usually agree with you but this column is just odd. I disagree with your comments and having read the speech, I think Osborne has been clear.

Pete, Scotland

I think Osborne's Exocet went straight over the heads of most people.

Travis Bickle

Meanwhile Brown gives yet another speech boasting of low debt and promising to do "whatever it takes". Perhaps he just lip syncs it every time.

David

Fraser, you worry me sometimes. I'm not going to say this was the best economic speech of all time, but I think the alternative has been very well laid out. Honestly, you keep going on about this 'Brown plan' like it's the most detailed economic policy ever presented; the reality is that it's just 'spend like mad and hope for the best', wrapped up in complicated language.

Fraser Nelson

TrevorsDen, it is absolutely not the media's job to provide the Tories with a campaign message! A pithy message does not mean dumbing down. Who is going to read a 4,300-word speech?

Mart, yes I'd agree with you on language but I'm prepared to let it go. The phrase "sharing the proceeds of growth" also irks me, as it suggests the proceeds of people working harder are somehow the government's to share.

M Dowdling, that's the first time I've heard anyone describe BBC2's Daily Politics as government propaganda! As you can see, we at CoffeeHouse take a Radio Two approach to free speech.

Sean, I didn't mean Osborne's speech was incoherent. But what message does it send out? I think Ricardo puts it well.

In my view the strong message Osborne could have had - 'we will cut taxes and help those who need it most' - is eclipsed by a rather more vague message about "fiscal responsibility." While this phrase is totemic inside the Westminster village it tends not to mean much to those outside it as Pete, Scotland says.

MB Reiser, remember this time last year how Brown nicked all Obsorne's ideas and everyone hailed him as genius. Osborne is up to the job - he just needs to work harder at it.

James

I like Osborne - but he was terrible on the BBC Breakfast this morning. The interview was really soft - but when the inevitable petrol price escalator came up - Osborne was completely at sea and unable to articulate the policy.

Osborne, Cameron, Hague and all their economic advisers (and perhaps some more from outside this group) need to get into a room this weekend and thrash out some real economic policies and principles that will survive immediate changes in the financial landscape. That would be Saturday's work.

Sunday would involve building a strategy to articulate these policies and their reasonableness to the electorate and for re-butting Labour's lines of attack.

It's time for them to step-up to the plate - and step-up very quickly.

TrevorsDen

Labour may well be profligate spenders.
But lets get one thing straight - building costs even for a domestic house are a damn sight more than £120 per m2.

So Hugh's pontifications are rubbish. A heavily serviced hospital will cost many hundreds even into the thousands of pounds per m2. And then you add the cost of maintaining the building and engineering.

A house alone would cost say £700/m2. Perhaps Hugh is thinking in ft2

Typically the area per bed - spread over an entire hospital is between 25m2 and 35m2

Ricardo is right -- there is no way out of this. Only paliatives.

Short the UK

I thought Osborne was Okay in his speech. Save the pound was its main message. Most pundits don't get that the pound is about to sink: no more nice breaks in Tuscany.

He needed a soundbite to get ahead of the curve.

The Fake Decade is ahead of the curve and is very easy for the public to pick up on. It chimes - you can deconstruct those three words for hours. Just keep hammering the message. I am sure people will feel it has been fake but it has not yet been rationalised.

The Fake Decade raps New Labour totally in the story:

~Crashing housing market.
~Banks and Building Socities going bust because of UK bad loans - nothing to do with Subprime in the States.
~Shops closing down.
~Restaurants shutting up.
~Factories closing.
~The City going bust.
~Negative equity.
~Credit card debt.
~Bankrupticies rising.
~Pound collapsing.

All due to the FAKE DECADE built on debt. Living on credit. Not living within your means. Prudent>

FAKE DECADE

Hysteria

@ Mart - spot on mate - I think this should be a very strong line of attack.

PayDirt

Getting money is people’s pockets is also possible by offering very low, even zero%, interest loans. Who’s up for being burned one more time by Govt’s offering buy-now pay-later mindset? OK if inflation is to take off again, but pretty dire if deflation is next up. Is there a case for engineering a dose of inflation to get the economy moving again? Personally I’m scared that things like A&E depts in hospitals now crowded out with old folk on trolleys will soon be overflowing as more and more old-folks’ homes go bankrupt and shut up shop, etc etc.

Gordon Musgo

Brown plan? How about Micawber plan?

oldtimer

Just read the text of the speech. Seems clear enough to me. I agree with his analysis and the kind of measures outlined. I would not expect him to set out more detail than he has - that would just allow Brown and Darling to attack Osborne than have to defend themselves. They have much defending to do.

It was a speech at the LSE, not a 100 word editorial in the Sun. It repeats much of what he has said before, it includes some sound bite material. These are tedious but necessary ingredients of the political process. Was it William Hague who said you have to repeat things about 100 times before it gets into the public`s head? This means repetition - boring for the anoraks posting here who actually get around to reading this stuff - and yet more repetition.

If/when the Conservatives win the next election, the words used here could provide cover for either a bland set of fiscal measures or something quite radical. I favour the latter approach to provide the jolt and incentives that the economy needs. Meantime I am happy to read between the lines.

Hugh

TrevorsDen
Yes still thinking in sq ft, I dropped a decimal point for sqm, rather spoiling my point. But the enormous discrepancy is still worth querying

Ivy Eileen

Mart has a point - for years, Brown has trotted out his tax credit message. It is (as always with him) a con and a play on words (e.g. investment equals spend in the real world). With his tax credits, all he is doing is giving you back your own money whilst claiming the moral highground of beneficity.... whether you actually understand the necessary claim forms is an entirely different matter, of course.

There is, however, a different point to drill into Cameron etc. Whenever a Labour politician speaks, he/she sounds as if they are making an effort and believe with sincerity what they are saying. Whenever a Tory (Hague excepted) speaks, he/she sounds too laid back and it's as if they are answering an exam question at school or College. There's little passion and commitment. It's too academic.

christina speight

After being contemptuous of the Cameron-Osborne silence I am delighted at the sheer logic and detail of Osborne's argument today. He is right and right in it all and crystal clear . There was no truffle hunt - perfectly plain and clear and what is more NO hostages to fortune.

He nailed the architect of all all our woes fair and square and showed how he is yet again lying in what he proposes. And with a perfect sense of timing he said all this on the very day that Brown's first disaster surfaced again - Equitable.

While commenting - yesterday you mention 4 of the brightest weho advise Osborne. Excuse me, but who are these previously anonymous people -anything approaching a CV or are they more teenage incompetent scribblers ?

TGF UKIP

Do I sense, Fraser, that tonight the Boy George picture on your bedside table is going to be turned to the wall?

Having read the speech it seemed to me almost to be more like the speech of a vaguely right of centre academic rather than that of an OPPOSITION politician seizing the chance to clobber the government and mark his own territory. Ivy Eileen's comments are right, Labour comments always have an edge and are political and their whole being is directed to presentation and nullifying the Tories.

As regards it being a speech for the venue, the LSE, bollocks! This was a widely trailed, media alerted political speech and if Boy George can't even get his number one fan, Fraser Nelson, excited then he really should be in the trouble he's assuredly not going to be in.

Quite apart from all the obvious points about no mention of excessive and misdirected spending and savings to be made, the other important political point about this speech is its tardiness. Gordon & Co have been running with and repeating their borrowing and spending their way out of recession to be right, mantra for almost two weeks now. If the Tories felt so keenly and angrily that it was the course to perdition they should have been at Gordon's throat last week.

Gordon and Labour know the vital importance of the simple and, as Oldtimer says, theconstantly repeated message. The Tories, however, have no such mantras and give no indication that, even if they did, they would be able to co-ordinate their transmission.

I do note, however, Fraser that while you might have felt a little dischuffed with your boy you still felt the urge and need to protect him by not drawing Coffee Houser's attention to the juxtaposition of this politically inadequate speech and the YouGove poll for the Browngraph indicating that more voters would trust Labour to get Britain out of the financial crisis than the Tories. Amazing really, until you consider who the Tory leadership consists of.

The other even more interesting and relevant link that the ever protective Fraser fails to provide (but which Guido does) is to a new ComRes poll on tax and spending.

This is an absolutely fascinating poll and I would strongly urge all Coffee Housers to hasten over to Guido at order-order.com and link to, print off and peruse this poll.

It's not just the headline stuff - 67% saying Brown has spent too much and 59% saying tax cuts rather than extra spending are the answer - the really interesting bits are in the regional and socio economic details. For example, more respondents in the Soviet Republic were in favour of tax cuts than in the South East and Midlands, more C2s and DEs were of the view by a large margin that spending had been excessive than AB's and lots more riveting stuff.

At the end of it all, though, we're still left with the same question as last week, last month, last year - why oh why can't Her Majesty have an Opposition worthy of the title.

TGF UKIP

Fraser, I owe you at least half an apology. I hadn't read your response to one of my posts on Thursday night until just now - "Osborne has been a plonker and bears most of the responsibility for the lead shrunk to 5%. I'm just not writing him off." Your faith is touching, Fraser, given how much it has been stretched but even your support for Boy George must now be very near breaking point.

After you and The Speccie go, who has he got left? Finkelstein - ho, ho, ho!

Pete Hoskin

TGF UKIP: We covered that ComRes poll on Thursday, a day before Guido, by getting the TPA's Mark Wallace to write a post on it:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2561641/poll-suggests-the-public-are-against-browns-spending-splurge.thtml

TGF UKIP

Yes, Pete/Fraser and I'd read the Mark Wallace piece so for this aberration I'll just have to plead not so premature dementia.