The question the Tories must answer
Peter Hoskin 3:19pm
Before George Osborne gave his speech at LSE today, I just coudn't get a handle on what his message would be. In his interview on the Today programme, he was making positive noises about reducing the tax burden. "The best way to help people is through targeted, funded tax-help ... certainly not increasing taxes like the government are planning to do," he told listeners. But the FT seemed to have a different take. Their preview of the Shadow Chancellor's speech began: "George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, will pave the way for tax rises under a Conservative government while warning against a 'tax con' short-term cut by Gordon Brown."
Thing is - as Fraser noted earlier - Osborne's speech didn't clear up the confusion. Sure, half of it was - like Cameron's PMQs performance - an effective and punchy attack on the government's borrowing plans. But the other half - the half about what the Tories would do instead - lurched awkwardly between promises to lower the burden on taxpayers; warnings to look out for any government effort to lower the burden on taxpayers; and assertions that lowering the burden on taxpayers will have to wait until the Never-Never-Land of the "medium term" . Just as the morning coverage suggested it would.
Now, you could argue that Osborne's unclear message needn't mean that his thinking's unclear too - maybe he's yet to hit on the right words to express himself. But it is rather symptomatic of the Cameroon's allergy to the phrase "tax cuts". Thing is, the longer that allergy continues, the more opportunity the Lib Dems get to do all the running on helping low-income earners. Iain Martin spells out the simple truth in an excellent post over at Three Line Whip:
If Osborne wants to clarify his position, then he might think about answering Iain's question."The Conservatives, surely, still believe that individuals are generally better at spending their money than the state, even in a downturn? Do they? And if they don't, voters might be tempted to ask what the point of the Tories is."
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David
October 31st, 2008 5:03pm Report this comment"The Conservatives, surely, still believe that individuals are generally better at spending their money than the state, even in a downturn? "
Thing is, that statement, even if correct, does nothing to address the issue of public spending. Government spends money for a variety of reasons, very often linked to the attempt to mitigate the circumstances where people simply aren't spending enough on a long term basis.
In other words, as a political maxim, it's far too simplistic. I wish the Telegraph would employ intelligent writers again.
Spin Bowler - In the Brown... Political Blog
October 31st, 2008 5:21pm Report this commentIt seemed perfectly clear to me. The best way to fight the recession was via monetary policy. A govt should do nothing to make it harder for MPC to cut interest rates. Fiscal policy should be about sound public finances. Osborne would do relatively small, sensible and targeted fiscal measures at helping individuals and companies in the short term. Significant tax cuts or increases in spending would be irresponsible because it would require more borrowing which would lead to higher taxes to be paid by future generations. He is also not going to cut public spending during a recession.
In short, strategy is one of a fiscal conservative - balance the budget over the economic cycle, small-ish fiscal measures to help now and cuts in interest rates to stimulate economy as Lord Lawson argued on Wednesday.
I don't get what is so confusing. Osborne's policy seems perfectly clear to me!
http://inthebrown.blogspot.com/2008/10/osbornes-plan-fiscal-responsibility.html
Fergus Pickering
October 31st, 2008 5:43pm Report this commentI think the reason the hacks aren' clearis that they want Osborne to do something big and bld, or at least to SAY something big and bold. Hacks are, after all, primarily sayers and not doers. What you ant, and maybe what I want too, is a Chancellor who doesn't do big, bold things at all, just nip and tuck and go with the flow, if you see what I mean. And that, surely, is the Conservative way.
Michael McGowan
October 31st, 2008 5:55pm Report this commentThe reason the Tories cannot attack Labour convincingly is that they are as committed as Labour to current levels of spending. That will be even truer as their poll lead shrinks and they have to contemplate coalition with the Lib Dems. They have no intention of reducing the overall burden of taxation, although they will protest otherwise. They are very likely to put income tax up. Two conclusions to draw: sell the pound and withdraw investment from the UK.
RobertD
October 31st, 2008 6:06pm Report this commentThe difficult question that Osborne does not spend enough time addressing is not the level of public spending but the things that it is being spent on.
Despite the confusion caused by Browns use of the term "invest" when he actually means pissing money away on current expenditure the man in the street is becoming increasingly aware that vast amounts of public expenditure are delivering no benefit to anyone beyond the political class, their cronies and hangers on.
The message has to be "these are the expenditure that we will cut in order that we can both spend on things that you will need in a recession (like unemployment benfits and retraining) and make some tax cuts that will get the economy out of recession (like reduced NI charges to promote employment and selective VAT cuts to support consumer expenditure).
People are not daft. They know that Gordon and Alistair are the only peole on the planet that believe in the magic pot.
Nicholas
October 31st, 2008 9:17pm Report this comment"That will be even truer as their poll lead shrinks and they have to contemplate coalition with the Lib Dems."
Hogwash.
RODEST
October 31st, 2008 10:46pm Report this commentOne or two pence cut in income tax is not gooing to help people on low income and those overstretched by debt. Ossborne needs to takle the overspending on wasteful projects and use that money to reduce stealth taxes and get rid of policies that target motorists etc. This would allow people a better choice of spending.
Osborne will be fully aware of the real deficit in the economy that the Tories will inherit if they win the next election. If that election is not before 2010 the deficit may be way beyond their estimations.
To get back to an economic level post 1997 it is likely to take twenty years. The recovery from the second world war took fifteen or more years and the same timespan after the 1979 election. The Heath governemnt inherited a broken economy which led to power cuts and the three day week. With these points in mind Osborne need to procede with caution.
The other obsticle Osborne has to face is Labour stealing his policies and claiming them as their own.
JimBob
November 1st, 2008 6:10pm Report this commentNow that Brown has committed himself to trying to spend the UK out of recession, the debate should be a walk inthe park for a real 'conservative' opposition.
Nice simple message-lower taxes and more money in your pocket vs. more wasteful spending like the last 11 years.
A prime example is ID cards, which are wildly unpopular with virtually everyone.
Osborne should be telling people that if they vote Tories that ID cards will get scrapped and theyd have about 300 pounds more in their pockets.
Focussing specific spending plans like this will kill off the cuts in investment argument-no one wants investment in ID cards.
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