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Sunday, 2nd November 2008

What 9/11 effect?

James Forsyth 7:10pm

Four years ago, Bush v. Kerry was essentially a foreign policy choice. If you knew someone’s view on the war, you probably knew which way they were going to vote. The final days of the campaign were dominated by arguments about who could best keep America safe. But now foreign policy has largely been bumped from the closing conversation. Both McCain and Obama talk about it far less than they did during the primaries.

One of the many ironies in all this is that if the primary electorates had know how little role foreign policy would play in the general election, they probably wouldn’t have nominated McCain or Obama. Instead, we’d likely be watching the final days of a Clinton-Romney contest—and I suspect Hillary would be heading for a landslide (if you doubt me, just watch this clip of her talking about the financial crisis).

It is an interesting question as to whether 9/11 or the financial crisis will do more to realign US politics. Certainly, the days when people talked about how national security might turn New Jersey into a battleground state seem a long time ago now.

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TGF UKIP

November 2nd, 2008 11:10pm Report this comment

Watching your clip, James, I'm not sure who's got more brass neck Hillary or Gordon.

I think you underestimate, though, Romney's campaigning ability as evidenced in the Republican primary debates. Unfortunately for him he had just too much liberal Massachusets baggage for the party ever to accept him.

THX1138

November 2nd, 2008 11:33pm Report this comment

Before bed a puff on the polling bong.

Some favourite Republican polling myths put to bed

1. Kerry was winning late in the 2004 campaign, too - Kerry was losing by 1% with three days left, while Obama is winning by 6%

2. Kerry won early voters, too - Bush either narrowly won early voters in 2004, or it was a tie. Obama is winning early voters by 10%.

3. Republicans typically improve from final polls to final results - On average, Democrats improve from the final polls to the final result, not Republican.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9608

The man from audacity is going to do it.

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