Initial thoughts
Fraser Nelson 11:01am
Some early thoughts on the American election results:
1) What Bradley effect? Obama won white men 57-41– that’s five points higher than Bush managed in 04. So much for the idea that this election would expose America’s racist underbelly. I wonder if those who have been banging on about it for the last few weeks will now ask if Obama’s “improbable journey” would have been possible in any European democracy?
2) No conservative wipeout. McCain looks like ending up on 47% of the national vote – a huge figure, given this has perhaps been the Republicans’ worst year for a generation. So we have almost half of America voting conservative - yet there will be a Obama-Biden White House and a Reid-Pelosi Congress. Such an imbalance should create the conditions for a conservative fightback in the 2010 midterm elections.
3) McCain outpolls GOP. The McCain-Palin ticket looks like it significantly outperformed the Republican brand in general if you look at the House and Senate figures. Democrats are heading to win 25 seats in the House – so Pelosi will have the best majority for 75 years.
4) Hillary as official opposition? I still haven’t heard from her. Any money she’s now positioning herself as the main leftist opposition to Obama should he move too close to the centre.
5) Young voters. Amongst the under-30s, Obama had two thirds of the votes according to Frank Luntz. Also striking was how they followed the campaign. For the first time in the election, the internet surpassed television as a source of information.
6) Handover. Four years ago, Bush signed a law granting advanced security clearance to the key advisers of both campaigns. This means as of today, Obama’s team will be given classified briefings immediately. There is much to be said for the US system of waiting a few weeks before hitting government.
Previous
Fergus Pickering
November 5th, 2008 11:22am Report this commentLet's cut to the chase. I think if were an Amwerican I would have voted for Obama. I KNOW that if a black man or woman (or a muslim) stands in this country I would find myself disinclined to viote for any of them. Why? Because I believe that their first loyalty would be to their constituency, black or muslim, and I (white, non-muslim) would come a poor second. I cannot think of a black (or muslim) politician in this country of which this woyud not be true. Go on. Tell me one.
William
November 5th, 2008 12:03pm Report this commentHow did black voters vote, Fraser?
Or does that not count as a 'racist underbelly'?
William Norton
November 5th, 2008 12:04pm Report this comment"There is much to be said for the US system of waiting a few weeks before hitting government."
There's no reason why we couldn't have the same here. Instead of immediately resigning the defeated PM could wait until Parliament reconvenes, and formally lose a vote of confidence. The ex-PM might not like doing that, but if it became established as part of an official breathing space to get the new cabinet up to speed it would be no more humiliating than losing a general election - and if there was a hung parliament, the sitting PM might not want to resign immediately anyway. It would mean putting back the state opening of parliament a few days, but I doubt the Queen would object to that.
(I have a vague memory that Baldwin started the immediate resignation trend in the 1920s? It was Alec Douglas-Home who started the practice of authorising pre-election discussions between Whitehall and opposition parties. So we've got two precedents of 80 yrs and 44 yrs standing, which of course means under the British constitution that we can do whatever we like.)
Bocephus
November 5th, 2008 12:30pm Report this commentI don't think Point 1 is correct my understanding is that McCain won the majority of both white men and white women.
Ruairidh
November 5th, 2008 1:03pm Report this commentI agree with Fergus on the UK.
Obama campaigned as post-racial whereas Hillary was pro-women. As a white male I found Obama enganging and Hillary untrustworthy. Race, gender and religion politics in this country are still the self-centred politics of victimhood. If they want to take a lesson from Obama it is how to move beyond that. Having said that Obama won because of his race. He'd of never got out of the primary starting blocks if he'd been white. (Hillary would have won the democratic nomination and she'd have lost to McCain.) America was desperate to vote a black president and slay the culture war dragon. The first one to appear without a chip on his shoulder has walked it despite being an inexperienced socialist.
Alex R
November 5th, 2008 1:30pm Report this commentI.e. Obama's journey in Europe.
Germany - no
France - no
Italy - no
Spain - no
UK - maybe
Prosero
November 5th, 2008 1:30pm Report this commentFergus be right.
debbie veys
November 5th, 2008 1:46pm Report this commentNo, William Norton. That is a silly idea.
dennis
November 5th, 2008 3:36pm Report this commentFraser
Bocephus is right. It was McCain who won white males 57 to 41.
That said, 41 for Obama was good - Politico is saying no Democrat since Carter has got more than 38.
Your point about no Bradley effect/no racism holds up anyway.
Wily Trout
November 5th, 2008 3:52pm Report this commentEuropean democracy? Where?
Ganpat Ram
November 5th, 2008 5:41pm Report this comment"Thoughts", did you say, james?
A mite old-fashioned, aren't you?
Just emote, boy, emote.
Thinking is bad, beacuse it can raise doubts about Our Messiah.
Dave
November 5th, 2008 8:38pm Report this commentNobama didn't knock out my GOP, and McCain was a putz for kissing up to that empty suit. The Conservative backlash is beginning strong. UK, you are the only hope to respond to mobile Russian nuclear missiles on Europe's borders by Poland. America has castrated itself yesterday and has no ***** now.
Maurice Mcleod
November 6th, 2008 5:56pm Report this commentFraser,
Point 2 was caused by Point 1.
The polls predicted a larger gap than there actually was and the Conservative vote didn't completely collapse because loads of Yanks couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black person (even and articulate and talented one).
In Obama you got a perfect storm for the the first non-white President.
A talented candidate - Even his enemies agree he is talented.
Light Skinned - America aren't ready to vote for a dark skinned man yet.
A terrible Repulican administration - Meaning the Democratic candidate was a shoe in whoever it was.The comment that Hillary would have lost is, I think, wrong.
And Fergus, it's funny that only those in power have a problem with understanding you can be from a disenfranchised group but still be even handed.
Luckily it won't be up to you! Eventually people stop asking take what should have been theirs all along.
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