America has done its bit, now it's Europe's turn
Daniel Korski 1:34pm
Barack Obama’s win yesterday signals, like nothing else could, that “America is back” – and back to deal with many of the world’s foreign policy challenges. After eight years of trying relations with the Bush administration, many European leaders have been looking forward to this day.
However, these expectations carry significant risks. Many – mostly, but not exclusively, in Europe – see the election of Senator Obama as an opportunity to get all the things that George Bush did not agree with back on the table. But the President Elect will not dissolve the laws of international relations or abandon US interests.
Take climate change. Mr. Obama has said they will endorse a "cap-and-trade" system in the US, which the Bush administration has resisted. Yet on the question that matters most to Europe – a global agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol – he may not depart from George Bush's position; that China and India must be part of any deal. Once put under the microscope, other issues show similar potential for transatlantic divergence.
Also standing in the way of a transatlantic love-in is a rise in American anti-Europeanism, which will likely outlive the current administration. Even though the US electorate may repudiate some of President Bush’ policies – only 39% of voters now deny the invasion of Iraq was a mistake – many have a decidedly negative view of Europe, originally formed in the “Freedom Fries” days of the Iraq War, but fostered by a perception that prominent European nations are refusing to bolster NATO’s Afghan mission.
And though Barack Obama will be the first post-Special Relationship president – more eager to have Britain play a role in making Europe work rather than build an exclusive bilateral bond – he too may quickly despair of Europe’s weakness. In this article, Mark Leonard and I argue that European leaders must step up if they are not to squander the opportunity afforded by the Illinois senator’s win.
If anti-Europeanism may be problem, its mirror image – anti-Americanism – still lurks beneath the surface. Europeans remain in two-minds about U.S. power. They want the US to exercise more power over, say, the genocide in Rwanda but are worried about U.S hyper-puissance. In 2007, only 36% of Europeans saw US leadership in the world as “desirable,” a figure virtually unchanged from 2004. When asked how they felt transatlantic relations will be affected by the US presidential election, almost half of Europeans felt that relations would stay the same.
For a new transatlantic deal to reflect Europe’s interests – but have enough traction in the US to stick – common policies are needed on: how to tackle NATO’s Afghan mission, political instability in Pakistan, growing authoritarianism in Russia, China's emergence, as well as how best way to deal with international terrorism.
Then Europe and the US need to find a new way of structuring the transatlantic relationship better. The once-in-blue-moon US-EU summits are not useful for policymaking, whilst the absence of a high-level US-EU ambassador, like the high-powered US Permanent Representative to NATO, signifies how (un)seriously Washington takes Europe.
Finally, whilst the US-European link will remain the world’s strongest and most important alliance, both sides will need to find ways to expand cooperation with other democracies and allies. The idea that President Obama may support a League of Democracies has set the cat among the European pigeons. But rather than worry about any depreciation of the transatlantic alliance, helping the US build links among the world's democracies will cement Europe’s place in the US foreign policy firmament. It will be important for the US and Europe to jointly lobby the emerging “lynchpin states” – countries in the Second World whose views will be increasingly important as power shifts from West to East.
Foreign policy professionals are now busy drawing up lists of what they want the US to do once Barack Obama is inaugurated. For the EU, the French government is leading a re-think of the EU’s relationship with the US, and the Czechs are preparing the next EU-US summit in June 2009. But European leaders would do well to work out what they want to do in the world, and what resources they are willing to commit, rather than just arrive at the Inaugural balls with a long wish-list. Britain, in turn, must consider what its role will be vis-à-vis the US – and Europe – once America’s first post-Special Relationship president takes over.
Previous
Frank P
November 5th, 2008 2:21pm Report this commentAmerica has done its bit ...?
What?! You mean America has just done its b""""""s! Just as we did when, as a nation, (not me guv) we fell for the Blair crap and are still paying for it.
Korski, you are a Kucumber of European dimensions. Any more of this garbage and I shall take to the streets myself with my zimmer frame.
Where do you find these wallies Andrew Neil? I assume you have a hand in the choice? If not then you'd better think about earning your money and get involved. Good job you've still got Paul Johnson and Charles Moore aboard to keep this ship sailing in the right direction and Melanie Phillips to make the blogs worthwhile. I despair.
Message to the 'moderator': if you censor this one as you have done with all the other comments I have made that have a dig at AN, you confirm my opinion that you are a pusillanimous pillock.
John K
November 5th, 2008 2:59pm Report this commentThe level of debate is sinking here. Not sure what your argument is, Frank P? The moderator was probably right to censure you before and wrong to let this contribution slip.
King Prawn
November 5th, 2008 3:48pm Report this commentIf you honestly expect France and the rest of Europe to honour their commitments in Afghanistan then you will have a long time to wait.
Karen
November 5th, 2008 4:00pm Report this commentThis was posted on one of the WashingtonPost.com's comment sections and has received numerous recommendations.
The World Is Watching
by, HC Blake
As the US celebrated into the early hours of the morning the victory of President elect Barack Obama, the world woke up breathing a deep sigh of relief. Change is in the air. And just about every world leader is enthusiastically lining up to do business with a new US President that represents a more considered Washington agenda. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated that he was very much looking forward to working closely with President Obama, and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France said that the Americans stayed true to their values, and have given Europe great hope by electing Barack Obama as President.
For the past eight years, America has been at odds with just about the entire international community. And though in many regards Americans at home have remained quite removed from outside criticism, Americans working abroad have had to take it on the chin. From Bush foreign policies, war in Iraq and near- worldwide financial collapse due to sub-prime mortgages in the US, the finger of blame has been pointed whole-heartedly at the US. I’m sure many Americans would agree that most of these accusations are quite true, but perhaps not agree with some of the more broad-brush stereotypes that followed.
However, yesterday we stamped out some of those stereotypes and showed the world, as Barack Obama said, ‘the genius of America’. Our ideals had not been lost in a history book and synergy still courses through the veins of the country. We do take the privileges of Democracy quite seriously – look at the record turnout at voting stations. We are aware of our tumultuous history but will fight for change in the essence the country was founded on - freedom. We demonstrated how far more aware we are of our international politics than given credit for – no more Bush style foreign policies. And we demonstrated that the American dream, an ideology exclusive to us alone, has not become complacent, but is more acutely practiced than ever before. We elected the first black President of the United States, in the most colour-blind way – by a landslide. We elected a man who rose from humble roots (like so many others) to achieve the ultimate of American dreams – the Presidency.
Barack Obama’s succession into the White House will be just as unique in terms of the unprecedented economic challenges he will inherit. We are trillions of dollars in debt with no savings. As one historian on the BBC said, Obama is going to open up the doors of an empty cupboard. Throughout his campaign, Obama has promised relief packages to the middle class who are losing their homes and paying too much in taxes, he’s promised a national health care plan and has demonstrated his capability of diplomacy and leadership on the world stage when campaigning abroad. How exactly this will all unfold, is yet to be seen come January 2009. But, what America has just done, something it does very well, is reinvent itself with a President Elect that very much represents the determination of a country so vast and diverse. Winter, 2009 will be Obama’s opportunity to reinvent the country again. After all, we’ve just proven it once already.
Not Even Likely
November 5th, 2008 4:43pm Report this commentThe rise of anti-European sentiment in the US is in part due to the belief that Europe will never contribute substantially to any NATO endeavor; this view is largely borne out in Afghanistan. Anti-European sentiment is also at least partially the result of people knowing, largely through the internet, how Europe feels about the US.
seasurfer1
November 5th, 2008 5:19pm Report this commentSome Nutter who was fearful of Bush and McCain will Test Obama seriously enough to cause a World War.
Frank P
November 5th, 2008 6:30pm Report this commentJohn K
The level of debate sank to it's nadir in Korski's post, I was merely attempting to inject some reality into it. Then along came your pompous comment followed by the pretentious Utopian bilge in the WaPo piece by HC Blake (almost barmy enough to have been written by William Blake in one of 'downers' but not nearly so entertaining) posted by Karen and apparently 'highly recommended'. If that what's it's like at the higher level of debate, I'm glad to be down here in the gutter. Partially explains why Uncle Sam went pandemically bonkers last night I suggest. Over there they are harbouring our refugee from our first Gramsci government who was stabbed in the back and discared by his co-conspirators and is now in one of America's Uni's where he is polluting the minds of the American innocents with his particular brand of cant. Now they have voted in their own Blair. Don't they ever learn?
"...Post-special-Relationship..." my aunt! You speak for yourself Daniel my brother; don't be dumping seven decades of mutual protection again Marxism, many other anti-Western isms and the current militant islamism in my name, buddy. And if that means I'm lowering the debate, John K, let's lower it a bit further. WTF do you think you are? Go practice auto-copulation if your pecker is big enough.
Moderator, I withdraw the 'pusillanimous' barb unreservedly. My apologies, I'm glad there is someone other than Melanie on the payroll who has cojones.
Henry Rogers
November 5th, 2008 6:41pm Report this commentFresh from being surprised by the sickening, but eminently forseeable, events in the Congo, Mr Korski has provided us with yet another fatuous post.
We will find out in due course whether Obama is a capable president or not. But it is worth remembering that his electorate chose him for their benefit, not that of people in Europe.
Let's be honest, many politicians in the EU are jealous of the USA and would like to set it up up as a rival superpower. Meanwhile you can't expect Americans to show much respect for national leaders and journalistic pundits who patronise them.
Tanuki
November 5th, 2008 7:40pm Report this commentAmerica has just elected a president whose worldview is intrinsically both protectionist and pacifist. He's going to have a spectacular and growing budget-deficit too, if he pushes through his public-sector-expansion policies.
He may get a six-month 'halo effect' breathing-space - but once reality hits he'll have spectacular problems.
Sure - 'Europe' can shake hands with the guy - but remember to wash your hands afterwards!
Oscar
November 5th, 2008 8:45pm Report this commentOdd all this condemnation of American foreign policy and the 'neo cons'. There's rarely a day goes by that I don't have a sense of enormous gratitude and relief that Saddam Hussein was overthrown and executed. Whatever problems we now face, they would have been immeasurably worse if Saddam Hussein was still in power. Bush and Blair (and McCain) took the right courageous steps to defeat a very dangerous, genocidal regime. They've been repaid with condemnation, derision and political annihilation. I recognise the momentousness and emotion of Obama's victory. But a large part of it was essentially the American people sueing for acceptance (as HC Blake sort of intimates). Ultimately an act of appeasement by many voters.
Fergus Pickering
November 6th, 2008 5:26am Report this commentCripes, that HC Blake thing reaches new levels of flatulence, doesn't it? Beware of a hack who thinks he/she is a 'serious' writer. An, when someone stats talking like that, you have to ask what does he WANT? And keep your hand on your wallet.
PD
November 12th, 2008 10:34pm Report this commentOh Fergus, you old bore! Is that the best you can muster? Say something constructive man!
Back to top