Glenrothes: the aftermath

Hereford

Hopeful words Peter: With his virtual control of the BBC message, Brown is in a position where any opposition has to do two points worth of work (at least) to gain one points worth of ground.

Dave and George have no answer to his machine and fail time and time again to press home any credible attack on his lies and obfuscations.

Unless the Tories start to truly attack, I look forward (not with relish, but with horror) to another term of Labour government.

StephenDC

You simply can't spin this as a bad result for labour. It is an amazingly good result.

Their total vote and vote share are both UP on the general election.

Read it slowly. Their vote is up. Mainly because of defections from tory and lib dem - who both lost their deposits.

This will be a narrative changing election but in all the wrong ways. Osborne will be the casualty i think. He has failing to land a finger on Brown, and the far too simplistic analysis that people will turn away from brown as recession deepens is going to prove wrong unless the Tories change strategy right away.

At the moment, Brown is the 'feel your pain, take action' option for the majority of the public.

Many are still feeling the need for a change at the same time - so their loyalties are divided - but as the recession deepens, the sense of a need for a change will become LESS IMPORTANT and the crucial question of WHO FEELS MY PAIN AND HAS A STRATEGY TO HELP will become all the more critical

Osborne simply doesnt have a strategy to do the latter. He cant identify with people (if he ever could, his summer on a boat has ended that) and his whole strategy has been a Blairite, proceeds of growth, how to manage the good times approach.

He is not up to the task for redefining the entire British economy to meet this challenge and just watching Labour get on with the task will not cut it.

We can all keep saying "well the swing will come when the recession deepens" if we want, if it makes us feel better.

But it's the political equivalent of being a flat-earther.

We need a new strategy. Time for a change didnt win for obama in the end, what won for him was the overiding sense that he would make an immediate practical difference to the personal finances of the vast majority of americans - get out of the war, cut taxes, sort out the economy, protect jobs.

Labour have realised this. Our dynamic duo seem to be re-fighting the 97 election, long after everyone else has realised the last thing you would want now is Blair-lite.

luke

To some extent?

Just LOL

Samuel

Well at least the stuff about the Brown bounce not being real is now put well and truly to bed.

Terrible week for the Tories.

Mark

I don't think this result has much to do with the Tories. They were never in with a chance.

I suspect that Labour used the long campaign period to identify and get out its vote. And that confidence that this was happening allowed Brown to turn up himself.

Also the 10p tax fiasco has faded from public consciousness.

It is very hard for the Tories. Yesterday the newsreader on the 10 o'clock news on the BBC announced the interest rate cut with broad smile. Watching her, you wouldn't have thought that the reason for deep cut was that the British economy is in a particularly bad state.

James

This result is probably an irrelevance and shouldn't be dwelt on.

You have the spectacle of two unpopular governments scrapping it out. Unfortunately Tories and Lib Dems both got squeezed as they really weren't in a position to offer the protest vote.

On the News last night one Tory supporter admitted to voting Labour to protest against the SNP. The reduction in the Labour majority shows that some voters were voting SNP to protest against Labour.

In this sort of mess - no coherent message can be drawn. Labour will have their reckoning when they face an opposition that isn't in power.

Tories and Lib Dems should forget and move on and be thankful that Labour decided to hold this election when it would be buried by the US election.

Stephen DC - dream on. This recession is going to be long and hard. When it proves worse for Britain than other major countries Labour will be finished as an electoral force for a generation.

strapworld

I do agree with StephenDC and Hereford.

What I cannot understand is the inability of Cameron to lead.

He dropped Patrick Mercer like a hot brick after his alleged (and proved NOT) racist remarks about black people in the army.

Even though he was supported by many black people who had served with him, Cameron did not have the GUTS to re-appoint Mercer.

Look at how he keeps friends in positions even though they had let the party down big time! Osborne and Spelman.

How he can keep Osborne in position is astonishing. NOW when a poll of conservative supporters and activists have given Osborne a massive thumbs down he is still in position. Truly amazing.

I have said before and I repeat. The next election will be dirty. That suits Brown perfectly. It cannot suit Cameron he will always be playing catchee up. He needs Big Hitters alongside him and he must rid himself of his cosy Eton/Public school cabal.

Action this day or else we are doomed to another period of Broon.

Short the UK

I blame it all on Osborne and Cameron. They did not get ahead of the curve when Northern Rock went down. Since then they have been weak and confused. You reap what you sow. They let Brown run the narrative. They are timid and soft. You need to attack when your opponent is weakest - this they totally failed to do.

I have now written off the Tories.

I actually don't care who is in power now. The economic forces are so strong and bleak it doesn't matter who is in power.

The Tories don't deserve to be in power because they are flacid.

Pretty sad to see - this was the big test and they have flunked it.

Bottom line - they totally lack confidence.

At the end of the day Osborne was too busy caught up in the bubble of Location, Location, Location. Not enough Attack, Attack, Attack.

Chuck Unsworth

Was this a contest between Labour and the Conservatives, or Labour and the SNP?

Does Brown therefore intend to visit each Labour seat at risk in a General Election? Is he intending to deploy his unelected wife for a fortnight to each of them, too? Possibly so. I have noticed that the pair of them have been visiting local marginal seats recently.

So this is NuLab, 'elect me and you get my wife for free, too'.

luke

James,

Thinking the facts that support your belifes matter and ignoring the ones that don't is a dangerous course of action in life.

I wouldn't suggest anyone follows your advice to ignore the bad and focus purely on the good.

C Powell

The recession may well be worse here than in other countries but if Labour decide to go for an early election next year which is, after all, 4 years after the last one, and before the recession has really bitten, what then?

The Tories have been assuming that Labour will wait until 2010 when things have got better. I think now Labour are assuming that in 2010 things may be a lot worse hence the desirability of going earlier on the back of a lot of Labour activity (however pointless). This result increases the chances of that. The Tories simply have no narrative on the economy. They have no narrative on anything else: nothing on the bully boy/intrusive State - the other big question of the day. They've been far too complacent in believing that (a) Labour will implode; and (b) time for a change will get them in. Not enough. If Labour get in again, this country is finished.

James

Luke - Labour still trail Tories in the polls. Brown hasn't been tested in a constituency south of the border and the local issues in Glenrothes seemed to rival national issues at the poll (which is unusual).

This isn't a white-wash - the Tories have a lot to do and much to improve on. I also agree with C Powell that an early election may prove problematic.

However I am confident that many still share my dislike of Brown. His personal enjoyment of the current crisis is like an insolvency practitioner rubbing his hands with glee at the prospect of a recession - it is unseemly and disgusting (more so because he is partly to blame).

JONNY

You seem to have lost my message an hour or so ago, so let me pose the question again.

Has Cameron got the cojones to separate off his Bullingdon Twin clone and bring back The Bruiser?
I firmly believe the next Election hangs on it.

Andrew Forbes

There may have been a Scottish element to this; i.e. the financial crisis meaning Scottish independence is less viable. However, all this means is that Labour will win more seats in Scotland, so the Tories will have to do even better in England, than they thought they had to yesterday.

It cannot now be denied that despite everything, voters seem willing to give Gordon a go at sorting the mess out. So, Tory tactics must be to attack and demolish Gordon's economic reputation, which they foolishly allowed him to resurrect. Attack, attack, attack; take him to pieces.

EyeSee

Of course, this judgement suggests the voters are possessed of infinite wisdom. The Scottish naturally have become used recently to being treated to great amounts of largesse. They have a large number of services that are free, that are not free in England. They are not so stupid as to be unaware of the source of the finances and do not wish to push it too far. As calls become louder for independent Scotland to actually be independent, so the electorate there recoil in horror. The client state throws a lifeline to its benefactor. Lordy, you'll be saying next that Tony Blair won an election because people thought he had sound policies and was effective. Certainly an enemy of Britain would wish to Lord him and Brown carries on his own brand of anti British behaviour, established in his treasury days. Rotten boroughs? That Brown would aim so small (or use his own money!)

Kevyn Bodman

C Powell (at 11.24am) is absolutely right about the other main issue being the bully boy/intrusive state.
And other commenters who have expressed disappointment at Cameron's attack strategy and Osborne's effectiveness are right too.
So Cameron:
1) Get a heavyweight in as Shadow Chancellor. I don't like Kenneth Clarke because I think he has a manner and tone of voice that is both patronising and bullying but I seem to be in a minority on that one.
So maybe Kenneth Clarke.

2) Get a heavyweight in to attack the government on ID cards and the database state, both on grounds of principle and cost.
How many instances of documents, files,discs or sticks going missing have there been in the last few months?
Where are Jacqui Smith's fingerprints now?
Answer - anywhere NO2ID want to put them.
And how much is all this ID database nonsense going to cost?

Come on Cameron, grow a pair.
And while you're at it send someone out to smash Blears' idea of censoring political bloggers, even if you don't like it when they tell you to get on with providing some robust opposition.

Dave B

I just don't see how this is such a good story for Labour.

Labour hold one of their safest seats. Wow. Shocker.

Sky blue. Water wet.

In 2005 Labour had a 10,000 majority in this seat. The neighbouring seat is the Labour leader's.

Labour losing this seat would have been news. Labour not losing it? Meh.

Spin Bowler... In the Brown!

The fact that Labour retained the seat came as no surprise to me at all - though the scale of their victory did, I must admit. Had this by-election taken place a couple of months ago - or put it another way, had we not gone through the financial crisis - and Labour had still won I would have been just as surprised as the reporters and commentators of the BBC.

However, the financial crisis did intervene and helped improve the Prime Minister's standing and in doing so raised expectations - mine at any rate. Throw into the mix that Labour were defending a 10,644 majority in a traditional Labour seat which neighboured the Prime Minister's own constituency as well as the fact that Gordon 'McCavity' Brown campaigned twice in Glenrothes breaking convention that Prime Ministers do not campaign in by-elections, all pointed to a narrow Labour win to me, countering the normal trend that government's lose mid-term by-elections, particularly those run by Gordon Brown. The fact that McCavity showed his face in Glenrothes - not once, but twice - gave me confidence in a Labour victory. If Brown thought Labour were going to lose he would have been on the other side of the world!

http://inthebrown.blogspot.com/

C Powell

Kevyn: I agree. But we've all been saying this for weeks/months now on this blog (& elsewhere) and a fat lot of good it has done. I fear that the Tories simply don't have the appetite for power, don't feel really angry at how a once-great country has been trashed and lack sufficient steel and ruthlessness to put the boot in and do what's necessary. And even if they do get in, we'll just end up with a slightly cuddlier version of what we have now but no real improvement - just an authoritarian state with a nicer face and a rubbish economy run by amateurs with no real vision or sense of purpose.

Mac

As Stephen said earlier, it is naive to assume that as the recession bites electors will turn away from Brown. Ignore the bookmakers odds because, topsy-turvey or not, the reality is that Labour have successfully grabbed the strategic narrative and, for whatever reason, much of the MSM is not about to hold Brown accountable for his direct responsibility for the state we're in.

The 20-point lead is history. Therefore, the Tories have to present a vigorous and focused strategy with simple and repeated soundbites that resonate with BBC watchers, Sun readers and Mail readers alike. An Obama-like 'setting one's own pace' is no longer tenable.

Irrespective of its failure at Crewe and Nantwich, the Labour jibe of toffs leading the Tories is well-established nationally, aided by Osborne's crassness in Corfu.

I agree with others here that Cameron and Osborne aren't cutting it. Bring in Clarke (party chairman instead of the discredited and utterly silent Spelman) and Davis and Redwood too; sure, there'll be reruns of the Welsh anthem farce and Vulcan taunts, but if Labour can bring back the obnoxious Mandelson and continue to use Prescott and Blunkett, then why not Redwood? And let's hear more from Hague.

James

Dave B, it's a big deal because of the contexts, historical and immediate.

Against the historical context, this is the first by election since 1998 in which an encumbent party has increased the share of vote. That's already quite a big deal.

But then add in the immediate context. Economic meltdown, a coming recession and Brown nearly ousted by his own side.

If you are in the camp (i think it was a small one) of always thinking the Labour weakness was overblown that Labour still had a solid chance at the general election and Brown was not sunk, then I see why you would think this election doesnt mean much. It would confirm your long held view that Brown was on course for a tight but winnable election.

However, the vast majority of us did think Brown was sunk. Labour was doomed and a Tory lanslide was a real possibility. For us, this election is a sharp reality check. I still think we can hold this view, but at the minimum you now have to have an explanation for why we are getting this blip.

This result is simply not consistent with a trend of Labour being annihalated at the next election.

David Lindsay

Where now for Alex Salmond (and could the SNP possibly survive without him, as it will have to do eventually)?

Why is Jim Sillars suddenly all over the place?

What of David Cameron, who has presupposed large SNP gains, thus delivering a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, so that the cosy Holyrood deal can be done in reverse?

What of Tommy Sheridan, his very name on the ballot paper, and fully 97 votes (behind UKIP, the Senior Citizens' Unity Party, everyone) cast for the candidate thus designated, right there in the last constituency ever to return a Communist MP?

And what of the "viewers in Scotland", for whom Glenrothes this, Glenrothes that, Glenrothes the other, would have been the "except" if there had been the entirely separate Scottish news bulletins advocated by the SNP? "Barack Obama, except for viewers in Scotland."

But there is now no question whatever over one Leader.

Gordon Brown.

Athesius the Facilitator

I am going to a golf society dinner tonight and I think Peter Viggers is gonna' be there. I am intending to buttonhole the old bedblocker and tell him to inform Dave of all the things that get said on these blogs. Mind you I have been boring everyone to death for months blogging about exactly the same things. Such as attack attack attack etc. However it must be difficult when the BBC and Sky are so biased. I thought John Craig from sky was gonna stain his knicks when he realised Labour had won.

The Conservative party are going to have to "get a grip". Cameron needs to be told about it so Viggers better bring some cotton wool tonight or his lugs are in a lot of trouble.

Fergus Pickering

C. owell, what would professionals running the country be? Soldiers? Businessmen? Under a democratic system you vote for politician, who are amateurs, I would have thought, in that they are not the above, nor are they. economists or priests. Just people, don't you know.

Jack

Patrick Mercer had to be fired after he suggested that a lot of black soldiers were "idle and useless" and being called "nigger" and "black bastard" was simply just part of "the way it is in the army".

The image of a new, improved, liberal Conservative Party that David Cameron had been trying to project was shattered by the unacceptable rhetoric of Mercer. Alan Duncan told BBC One's Question Time that Mr Mercer "appeared to be indifferent to the fact that someone was taunted for being black." You cannot be indifferent to that said Mr Duncan, but it seemed to many that Mr Mercer was indeed indifferent.

There are some that just don’t get it and will never understand the righteous dismissal of Mr Mercer.

David Cameron was so right to fire him.

It’s intellect not guts that forbids any Mercer reinstatement and it would seem that many believe Mr Mercer is not to be trusted (Tory grassroots) also some are of the opinion the man is something of a loose cannon.

Mr Mercer seems happy and can now say what he thinks so all is well that ends well.