What are the odds?

Fraser Allonby

It is now abundantly clear that the 20 point Tory lead was solely down to disaffection with Brown rather than any compelling reasons to vote Tory. By not owning the political narrative the Tories have allowed Brown back into this. Will Osborne and Cameron now please start to say something meaningful? Pick Brown up on his deceits, own the debate on tax and spending cuts, get some positive ideas out about financial regulation, stimulus for growth and efficiently directing public spending. The Tories handling of the economic downturn has been abject; they can’t just rely on sitting on their hands and hoping Brown wins the election for them.

Austin Barry

The US gets the Messiah, we get Lazarus Brown and the Conservatives seem lumbered with Onan Cameron. Yeah, verily. we are doom-ed as Frankie Howerd used to say.

strapworld

In politics you cannot have friends only colleagues. Friendships can be disastrous to one or both parties and this is so obvious with Cameron and Osborne.

Cameron is supposed to be the leader of the Conservative Party. A leader has to make tough decisions and, sometimes, hurt people.

He has to hurt quite a few people, in my view, to stand any chance of regaining the initiative against Brown. He just cannot sit back and wait. People want action now, not next month!

P45's should be handed out quite liberally. Osborne, Spelman, Maude, all his eton buddies and the silver spoon brigade.

Get a fighting shadow cabinet around him, people who will get out there and hit hard. People the public will respond to!

If Cameron cannot see the writing on the wall he should be led to it! and if he does not accept it he should be offered the ceremonial sword or revolver!

JONNY

Yes Strapworld -ah yes...

Or as Enoch Powell apocryphally said to Rab Butler (give or take the odd word))
"Here my friend is the dagger. Now go and stick the bloody thing in."

Mark Demmen

Fraser Allonby and strapworld put it very well. I can only add that it's about time Cameron et al started doing what we pay them to do by opposing the Government - vigorously and unrelentingly.

That means coming off the fence on a whole range of issues, and putting forward alternative polices that appeal to the wider electorate, rather than desparately trying to stay within the 'progressive consensus'.

Ian C

"If you can keep your head when all about you...."

It has been a very difficult time for whoever was in opposition in the UK to get right.

The frighteners were put right up us all by the demise of Lehmans - and it plainly cost McCain any hope of being elected, not because he belonged to the 'encumbent' party on whose wathc it occurred as most comment says, but as a capitalist. (Wall Street always supports the Democrats far more than the GOP).

For Cameron he has had to play it very gingerly - and was let down badly by Osbourne's stupidity at a time when the story needed to stay on Brown. But it was also bad luck as no-one expected the return of Mandelson (something that will only be any good to Brown if he is to go for an early election). That epsiode should teach Cameron just how disciplined a winning team has to be to not leave the least expected open to any sort of chance.

So, I don't agree that the Tories lead has vaporised and that it was all hot air. Cameron has always had to pick his timing to release the full load of whatever he is planning. That is more frustrating for his natural supporters, who have to take alot on faith, than it is for encouraging for his opponents.

This is likely to be a 2 year recession at best and a 3+ year depression at worst. He has to keep his powder as dry as he can in order to avoid being plaguerised by Brown.

All need to stay cool. It was never going to be as easy as Brown was making it in 2007/08. The howls of anguish that will come next year will be excruciating.

Nick Kaplan

I’m begging to see what Peter Hitchens means when he speaks of the “useless Tories.” Is it not a mark of the most monumental political incompetence that someone as dead as Brown has been able to pull of this victory after a crisis that was partly his fault all because the opposition has been so ineffective in creating its own narrative?

My faith in Cameron and co declines with every passing day. After initially being sceptical about Cameron I came round to embrace his leadership of the party but I must admit that TGF UKIP has been right about Cameron since day 1. I should have listened but instead I was taken in by his early popularity which blinded me to his to his now obvious lack of substance. Perhaps you guys at the Spectator should also realise that Cameron is not as great as we thought. Whilst you have over the last couple of weeks been slightly critical I think you have down played just quite how massive Cameron’s (and Osbourne’s) failure has been.

My solution:

(1) Move Osbourne; his policy experience would suggest he could make a good party chairmen, which is fine since Spellman needs to go anyway. He is not suited to the role of shadow chancellor now that the economy has become the key political issue.
(2) Find a heavy hitter to take his place as shadow chancellor; Ken Clarke who has a great record himself would be a good call.
(3) Blame Brown for debt, interest rates that were too low and the complete failure of the regulatory system.
(4) Wake up and realise that the economy is now the biggest political issue. Saying that Labour spending plans will be matched may have been ok in good economic times but it just won’t do any more.
(5) Come up with some policies that can be presented as an alternative to Labour’s fiscal irresponsibility and say how the Tories will manage the economy differently.

John Page

Osborne gets on the radio and says ... nothing. He flannels. His showing has been abysmal.

Maybe this is because his PR leader is scared of taking any positions at all. Or maybe Osborne's just a political dilettante.

William Norton

Jonny - I thought Enoch said something like "I gave Butler a loaded revolver and he refused to use it on the grounds that it might make a noise"?

strapworld

As Maggie once said, Jonny, "The greatest politician not to lead the Tories- (give or take the odd word) Enoch Powell"

I would like to have heard what she said about Sailor Heath!

Maria

At last the fairydust surrounding the Cameron trio (Hague & Osborne) seems to be lifting. As much as the election in the U.S.A was a victory for Obama it was also a vote against the disasterous Bush years. So Brown`s upwardly creeping polls are a realisation that the Tories offer nothing more than vapid promises. If Cameron & Osborne are to survive they must think through their ideas and sound convinced by them instead of looking like sulky teenagers on PMQ`s when ever GB huffs and puffs about Tory policies.

Graham

The performance of the Conservatives in Opposition to such an abject Government is truly alarming.There is no hard-hitting gravitas...it's all lightweight 'heir to Blair' stuff.For a start, Osborne must go...and be replaced by Clarke.

David Priest

I agree with Strapworld.

It is simply not good enough for the Tories to assume its their turn to win the next election.

Yes, 'time for a change' is a really big obstacle for Labour to overcome and the odds are still that they will not win the next election.

Nevertheless, the Tories must grasp that they have to start making headway again soon.

Whatever their worth, the pubic school, Oxbridge types who are currently at the head of the party are not naturally viewed with enthusiasm by most of the electorate. In fact, it is an obstacle they have to overcome - a task made much more difficult by George Osborne's 'rabbit in the headlights' performance following Yachtgate.

Although I didn't think so at the time, it is clear that David Davis has been a big loss to the shadow cabinet and I believe Mr Cameron should seriously consider bringing him, and others of his type - if I may use that description - to the fore.

Tankus

@ Strapworld ........give that man a beer.!
"P45's should be handed out quite liberally. Osborne, Spelman, Maude, all his eton buddies and the silver spoon brigade."
Cameron needs a hard core bunch of hitters ..... Its not as if browns got all the G.O.A.T.S....
more like of all the "muppets", It shouldn't be hard to best them , but Cameron's spotty little herberts are struggling !
shed them now ...

JONNY

Fire the bullet in.
Stick the dagger in ... -
well I did say apocryphal, Willam Norton. Which may well mean I made it up.
But does it matter? Bullingdon bonds are thick and our Lad's not in the throat-cutting game.
So all our hopes are pie in the sky