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Tuesday, 11th November 2008

Labour close the gap

Peter Hoskin 8:53am

Today's Populus poll in the Times - the first to be conducted in the aftermath of the interest rate cut and the Glenrothes byelection - has the Tories on 41 percent (down 4 since early October); Labour on 35 percent (up 5); and the Lib Dems on 16 percent (up 1).  That's Labour's highest level of support since March.

I doubt Team Cameron will be unduly worried by those headline numbers - after all, they are still 6 points ahead; solidly in the 40s; and all after several weeks of positive coverage for Brown.  But some of the below-headline findings will cause concern. For instance, 52 percent of respondents think that Brown is the "right leader to deal with Britain's economy in a recession", compared to 32 percent for Cameron.  Whilst Brown also edges out Cameron in the leader ratings - scoring 5.04 to the Tory leader's 4.94.

Throw in a couple of other findings (that 73 percent of respondents support increased public spending on construction projects, and 63 percent support tax cuts even if they boost government borrowing) and the implication is that the public are going along with Brown's narrative on the economy - for now, at least.  Even though support for borrowing declines once its long-term consequences are explained, those numbers suggest that Cameron will find it difficult to win out in the current tax cut war.  Especially as Brown's cuts will likely eclipse those just announced by the Tory leader.

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Forlornehope

November 11th, 2008 9:30am Report this comment

It is difficult to disagree with the "Labour response" that the Tory policy is "incoherent". Boris has just made a bonfire of half-baked unfunded spending plans in London. It is time Cameron and Osborne did the same, starting with ID cards and the NHS computer system. Even that would not constitute an adequate response but it might be a start.

chris

November 11th, 2008 9:49am Report this comment

I just don't get it. When/who will nail Brown to the wall over his mishandling of the economy? My take is that Brown's image was so bad that it took the economic level to descend to his depths that made him look like a human being. If the Tories can't pin the blame on NuLab and sweep the next election thay should give it away. Glad I've left the UK to be honest.

Donna

November 11th, 2008 10:20am Report this comment

I hate to say it, but I absolutely agree with Chris. This government's economic policies over the last ten years have been nothing but a complete shambles, with Brown in the driving seat. If Cameron can't take full advantage of those facts, is it time to find someone who can? The conservatives have done nothing at all in response to this crisis except for bumble along with Labour's best. Now is surely the time to state, loudly and clearly, where Labour have gone wrong and what they intend to do about it. Show the country some REAL leadership!

JONNY

November 11th, 2008 10:29am Report this comment

Steady on there Forlornhope!
We've only just had a poll giving the Tories a 13 point lead.
Why do we all rush to assume this new 6 point one is the right one that cancels out all the rest?
Let's relax. Have a sense of balance. Balance pessimism with restrained optimism.
Cameron will still win - if only narrowly.
(Though it would help if he replaced Osborne).

liz Brown

November 11th, 2008 11:39am Report this comment

I have difficulty with the intelligence of those polled by Populus - surely they must know that it is Gordo's mismanagement of the economy - easy credit, public borrowing and etcs that have contributed hugely to the problem. It does seem tho, that Cameron, Osborne et al will have to work very hard indeed to get this message across. that said, with Mandlebum and Campbell driving/dictating the news agenda that there are enormous difficulties in getting this message into the public domain. the meeja is complicit

Talia

November 11th, 2008 11:46am Report this comment

Hard not to have a low opinion of the electorate when they’ve voted this lot in three times already. And I am convinced that the major factor playing in Labour’s favour is the biased BBC and most other media coverage. It’s a massive uphill struggle to beat this. Not to mention the unfair constituency boundaries…

TGF UKIP

November 11th, 2008 12:38pm Report this comment

Tough luck, Pete, as a Speccie hack you have no alternative to putting the best gloss on a mere 6% lead against the worst government in living memory and on a 52 -32 lead for Gordon in the leadership stakes.

While this poll may well indeed be a blip, if more in similar vein follow in the next few weeks I suspect mine will be by no means the only voice pointing out that it's long past the time to dump Dave, rectify a grievous error and install DD.

Verity

November 11th, 2008 2:30pm Report this comment

"It does seem tho, that Cameron, Osborne et al will have to work very hard indeed to get this message across...".

Donna, Cameron and Osborne don't know what the message is. They are a pair of posturing inadequates.

TGF UKIP - Agree with every word of your post, and have, in fact, been posting similarly for around two years. Cameron is not a Tory and he is not leadership material. Would you follow David Cameron over a hill? I wouldn't get up off the couch to even take a look at the hill.

If they keep Cameron, the next election is lost. He's a self-righteous, condescending, self-regarding fool.

David Davis is a leader and he thinks right. He doesn't like the socialists. He's aware of the wreckage they have made of our formerly civilised country, and the wrecking ball they took to our ancient laws and our civil values.

David Cameron's a time waster and he will never be elected prime minister.

JONNY

November 11th, 2008 5:32pm Report this comment

Thanks very much Verity and wrong again.
As you were with McCain.

Huw Thornton

November 11th, 2008 5:41pm Report this comment

@ Peter Hoskin

"I doubt Team Cameron will be unduly worried by those headline numbers - after all, they are still 6 points ahead"

I know that Team Cameron do affect a languid and laidback attitude, but in the circumstances your comment seems almost defamatory, even for them.

Verity

November 11th, 2008 8:01pm Report this comment

Jonny - Incorrect. I never said McCain would win. I wrote things like "time will tell" or "We will see". I thought McCain was in with a chance, thanks to Sarah Palin, but I did not write that I thought he would win. You are wrong, as lefties always are. Wrong and spiteful and manipulative.

Cameron does not have the emotional or mental wherewithal to make the voters like him and trust him. I most assuredly would not vote for this individual. He has no detectable convictions.

JONNY

November 12th, 2008 12:32pm Report this comment

Godsake Verity come off it.
Trashing Cameron's achievement in detoxifiying the Tory Party is no mean achievement with dinosaurs like you fulminating away off-stage.
If you think backing Cameron makes me a 'leftie' all I can say is:
"poor old Verity."

Verity

November 12th, 2008 2:32pm Report this comment

Jonny - Cameron has not detoxified the Tory party (his pr-speak terminology). He has denuded it of any character, any conviction, any clarity of vision for the reestablishment of our civil society and our laws.

Cameron has spent three years (it may be two, but it feels like three) doing absolutely nothing but posing for photographs and trying to look as though he has a secret plan. Trust me. He doesn't.

He's not a Conservative. He's a metropolitan Champagne liberal. He's patronising. He doesn't know how to speak to people outside his own circle and comes across as condescending. ("Look at me. I'm addressing you as an equal!") I can't stand his wife, either. I think the spouses of prime ministers should not be employed nor own businesses.

David Cameron's problem is, he's a hot house flower and he doesn't know how to relate to 99.999999999999999% of the electorate, most of whom don't like being patronised.

He does OK, sometimes, at PMQs, and that's about the size of his contribution to British public life.

You would be wise to stop insulting me with personal remarks like "poor old Verity" or I will come back at you.

JONNY

November 12th, 2008 3:30pm Report this comment

'David Cameron's problem is, he's a hot house flower and he doesn't know how to relate to 99.999999999999999% of the electorate.
Very inter-er-est-ing Verity.
Is that why he has the highest ratings of any Tory Leader since 1992?????????????????

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