All hype?

After they managed to successfully keep the lid on things in Glenrothes, has the Labour expectations management operation sunk back into disrepair? Since the weekend, the figure most readily mooted for the tax cuts expected in the pre-Budget report has been a hefty £15 billion. Sure, that's been denied by the Treasury - but the number's stuck nonetheless. Yet according to Larry Elliot in today's Guardian: 

"To make a real difference, Alistair Darling would need to announce tax cuts of at least 1% of GDP in his pre-budget report this month. That would mean a tax-take reduction of £15bn - out of the question given the state of the public finances. The financial markets have been softened up for tax cuts, but they would be surprised and alarmed if the package was worth more than £3bn."

If that £3 billion figure's correct, then Brown may have two problems on his plate. The first, simply that the public may be underwhelmed by this much-hyped PBR. The second, that he may undermine his new argument for the efficacy of unfunded tax cuts, if the unfunded tax cuts he proposes add up to only 0.2 percent of GDP. Watch this space.