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Saturday, 15th November 2008

Tell the truth and Brown thinks it's hell

Fraser Nelson 5:26pm

Gordon Brown says he “regrets” George Osborne’s “partisan talk” warning that we may have a sterling crisis on our hands – his implication being that the Opposition should be supporting him, the Father of the Nation.  In fact, there has never been a greater need for full-blooded, disrespectful, combative, full-on scrutiny of what he says.
 
I suspect the main reason Brown “regrets” what Osborne said is because Osborne is right. I haveblogged before on what should be known as the 2008 devaluation of sterling.  It gives the lie to Brown’s theory that Britain has a strong economy well-placed to fend off this “contagion” from America. That the pound has fallen so far is an eloquent comment on the health of our economy, relative to others.

I am pleased that Osborne believes, as I have long argued, that Brown may well adopt a “scorched earth” policy and wreck the UK public finances to give the Tories a worse inheritance and perhaps minimise Labour’s defeat. Brown’s dogmatic refusing to cut wasteful spending has set us on course for an 8 percent deficit in the 2010/11 – likely to be the first year of Tory government. And any “fiscal stimulus” he’s talking about would be on top of that, taking us into 1970s bailout territory. An act of economic vandalism could be about to take place here, and the Tories are not just entitled but obliged to sound the warning. A plunging pound is the inevitable consequence of that – with all its repercussions for the cost of lending.

And since when was there a convention that Opposition leaders should not discuss the currency? Unlike the Bank of England or the Chancellor, they can’t “talk it up” as they are not privy to any special information. They are commentators, like the rest of us. If the Shadow Chancellor believes the Prime Minister is embarking on a destructive economic policy with repercussions for our currency and our country, he must speak out.

I see today as potentially an important turning point for Osborne. He’s been a woose for ages. He was warned about the bubbling banking crisis long before Northern Rock went under, but didn’t sound the alarm as he didn’t want to be seen as a Jeremiah. Just six months ago, he also didn’t want to talk about deep recession because he thought it may rebound and he’d look daft. His caution has cost him dear. So he is pre-emptively warning about the next part of this Nightmare from Downing St: sterling’s collapse. As Brown prepares for a Pre Budget Report, with all the harmful consequences that could entail, Osborne has at last decided to play hardball.

I won’t be so premature as to say that Osborne is back on form. This may be a one-off. But it’s good to see him doing what he used to do so brilliantly – get right under Gordon Brown’s skin.

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Augustus

November 15th, 2008 6:02pm Report this comment

Osborne is not 'talking down the Pound', he is talking up Brown's economic illiteracy. With the UK outlook of economic data remaining weak and little prospect of growth, the rationale for last week's record interest rate cut, may have been too late to offer much sentiment for the currency. As fears over the severity of a global recession continue to mount, it is the levels of investors' aversion to risk that will determine Sterling's performance, rather than party politics, in the greater scheme of things.

bernerlap

November 15th, 2008 6:05pm Report this comment

Totally agree. But I think you mean 'wuss'.
Maverecon in the FT yesterday and this comment http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/walayat/2008/1113.html makes exactly the same point as Osborne is making.

Pat

November 15th, 2008 6:07pm Report this comment

Not only has he rattled Gordon Brown but he has also annoyed Toenails Robinson and Mr Angie Hunter. Which was nice.

Short the UK

November 15th, 2008 6:13pm Report this comment

Fraser - let's get the anger and passion levels up. Economic Tories are itching for a fight with the King of Boom & Bust.

The wisest words I've read today:

'Depressions or recessions are caused by basic economic changes of supply or demand of credit. What leaders say about circumstances cannot in itslf help or hurt the situation, except perhaps for a few days.

Talk just doesn't matter. If an apple is rotten, the act of saying so will not make it ripe. If it's ripe and someone calls it rotten, it will not turn rotten on the spot just because of this characterization.'

Harry Schultz in the book Bear Market Investing Strategies.

------

I hope the FT comes on Osborne's side but they have been pretty poor on the Crunch. Come on Lionel!!!!

Peter Oborne's piece in the Mail today is required reading.

Athesius the Facilitator

November 15th, 2008 6:15pm Report this comment

Yes! What you say is spot on this time. But you need to have a word with Cameron and Osborne and get them to circle the wagons because the BBC and the Labour spin machine has been in action all afternoon basically branding Osborne a traitor. They need to call in some of the big guns like Fallon and Clarke to spike this attack otherwise the sword of truth spoken in Osborne's article today maybe the sword that fells him.

Drew

November 15th, 2008 6:17pm Report this comment

Devaluation is like a fine single malt - it's so terribly easy to have a little too much.

adrian drummond

November 15th, 2008 6:21pm Report this comment

I grew up in the dying days of the Old Establishment. Whatever their faults, they had - by and large - moral and ethical standards. This New Establishment has neither. They care for nothing but for themselves.

Nicholas

November 15th, 2008 6:23pm Report this comment

Go harder George. Get those gloves off and go bald-headed at the brooding, spiteful ogre occupying No.10.

Be as sarcastic and supercilious as you like. Scorn the fat-heads of the left with barbs of vitriol and venom. Mock their stupid vision of big state Britain with its finger wagging gauleiters. Laugh at their bungling incompetence and lurching, crude, dumbed-down propaganda. Snap fingers at their clumsy, ham fisted attempts to skew the political agenda to suit their own deviant purpose.

And for Haringey we want resignations Brown, where are the resignations?

Tiberius

November 15th, 2008 6:24pm Report this comment

I'm glad to see a well contructed piece from you on this, Fraser - it's been a long day and it was looking as if Brown might be getting away with it. I hope the Sundays are suitably worded.

With Brown's cynical and clinical cunning, the timing of attacks against him is very important. But the size of the fall in the exchange rate last week really gives Brown no grounds for complaint.

Sally Chatterjee

November 15th, 2008 6:46pm Report this comment

About time someone spoke up and pointed out Brown's madness.

Note for all his bluster on economics, how Brown can't debate the issue: he has to resort to put-downs and personal attacks on Osbourne. It's a classic sign of inner weakness and instability, a failure to grasp the matter so he and his entourage lash out at Osbourne.

Brown got economic policy wrong as Chancellor, he is repeating the mistakes as PM. Like Captain Ahab he seems hellbent on pursuing the wrong policies because he's deaf to both advice and criticism.

seb

November 15th, 2008 6:50pm Report this comment

Team Brown knows a thing or two. Labour has a stranglehold on much of the media and can count on pro-Winston propaganda whatever happens. On this is predicated Brown's tactic of lying at every turn and blaming someone else for everything and having this reported as fact. 'The American's started the credit crunch and Osborne devalued the pound and I had nothing whatsoever to do with either'. And as only Winston can arrange some highly ill-judged tax rebate to bribe the dim, his chances of a fourth term are not looking as bad as, logically, one ought to expect. Who knows if Winston will be celebrating a win in 2009 or 2010? Most betting is still on a Tory victory. Flash Gordon it might be who, against all odds, traipses back into Downing Street next year or in 2010. But it will soon be 'Mugabe' Brown who will be peering from behind the curtains at Number Ten for most of the time thereafter.

David Smith

November 15th, 2008 7:04pm Report this comment

Oh yes, we want sackings, not resignations!
http://www.facebook.com/groups.php?ref=sb#/group.php?gid=39856852002

And I'd like to see the ministers and the senior civil servants who played pass the parcel with the whistleblowers warning sacked as well.

Anthony a

November 15th, 2008 7:18pm Report this comment

Mr Osbourne should follow the LibDem trick of making contradictory announcements that cover all possible outcomes.

Then whatever actually happens he can find a quote to say he'd been saying this all along.

Francis Brooke

November 15th, 2008 7:40pm Report this comment

George Osborne is absolutely right to focus on the huge risks that the Government is taking - a 30% fall in sterling's value in a few months is the true global verdict on the Brown government and its economic strategy.

mitch

November 15th, 2008 8:00pm Report this comment

Wait till people start coming home from Spain complaining about how few euros they got compared to last year then they might understand gordons bust.

TGF UKIP

November 15th, 2008 8:10pm Report this comment

Lots of economically literate and objective comments but at the end of the day, it all depends on how the Tories respond to Brown's "patriotism" attack on which the BBC are going full blast.

If for once they really do come out all guns blazing along the lines of "last refuge of a scroundrel" they may at least neutralize Labour and possibly even score one in front of the electorate.

If they are as wimpishly limp as usual, then Gordon scores a double whammy. His patriotism jab sticks and works and, probably more importantly to Labour, by mounting such a full frontal attack on Boy George it makes it impossible for Dave to shift him before Gordon's planned GE in Spring next year.

So far as "Brown's dogmatic refusing to cut wasteful spending has set us on course for an 8% deficit in 2010/11" perhaps you could tell us, Fraser, if such "wasteful spending" has been condemned or supported by your Precious Pair over the past three years.

And, Fraser, while your efforts on behalf of your client Mr Osborne are truly valiant you really are beinning to out-Cleese Cleese.

BTW was it yourself, or another Speccie hack, who was telling the Coffee House a couple of weeks ago that "Downing Street are terrified of Osborne"?

Lola

November 15th, 2008 8:33pm Report this comment

Trouble Mr Nelson he still has to battle with the Fellow Travellers at the BBC.

If the Tories do get into power action 1 is a major reform of the Beeb methinks.

cheshire cat

November 15th, 2008 8:34pm Report this comment

The summit has closed for the day.

And despite Brown declaring he intended to get all the country's to follow his policy, the following statement has been issued to Reuters:

The countries "did not commit to coordination of interest rate cuts or of public spending to counter what could be deep world recession, saying any moves were up to each country, according to a text of their summit".

Seems like this self claimed 'economic saviour' was ignored by the world.

John Moss

November 15th, 2008 8:38pm Report this comment

Comments on Nick Robinson's Blog are almost entirely supportive of Osborne.

BBC have simply lapped up the Labour spin and didn't even mention Osborne's warning when running the story at lunchtime, just Brown's criticism.

Hopefully the blogs will make them see they're wrong.

Aless Bieri

November 15th, 2008 8:38pm Report this comment

Gordon uses this accusation whenever he dislikes what the opposition says. He used it when Cameron wanted to talk about Baby P, and he uses it whenever someone mentions the economy.

And there was me thinking that the role of the opposition is to challenge the government when they're screwing up

JIminy Widget

November 15th, 2008 8:46pm Report this comment

Flash Gordon- Crash Gordon 'nuff said !!

Ken

November 15th, 2008 8:47pm Report this comment

Resignations at Haringay AND a Conservative manifesto pledge to clean-up, slim-down and P45 the Lord Haws Haws of the BBC. What a shower and what a disservice to objectivity CFlint (PM) and the rest of the herd are.

japstick

November 15th, 2008 8:50pm Report this comment

At last, a bit of grit from Osbourne. The torys really need to let loose a sustained broadside on labours utter economic incompitence, disguised by BBC collusion.This isn't party political, the future of the UK depends on it.

Fearless Frank

November 15th, 2008 8:59pm Report this comment

Rather poor form of Mr Osborne to speak out - I think Mr Brown was relying on keeping schtum about the state of the pound so that no-one would notice

strapworld

November 15th, 2008 9:00pm Report this comment

Mr Nelson. Like your colleague you are wrong. How can Osborne 'take on Brown' he will have no chance within Parliament that job is for Cameron!

Now if you are saying Cameron has, not for the first time, shown that he has not the ability TO LEAD. I agree.

Cameron, as I said to Mr Forsyth, should have made this interview as it is Cameron who will be 'taking on Brown'

Does Cameron realise just how close he is to an election? Does he want to win?

claire

November 15th, 2008 10:30pm Report this comment

the more sky & bbc attack osborne , the more angry people are about brown's lies about the economy. the people i know are increasingly scared about the suicidal brown borrowing.out here in the real world , the westminster press machine are not doing brown any favours.

Carol-Ann

November 15th, 2008 10:51pm Report this comment

The problem is, Osborne has no credibility with the public. IF it were Ken Clarke making this statement people would sit up take notice and listen!

Austin Barry

November 15th, 2008 10:52pm Report this comment

Labour's diversionary tactics are amazing: the pound is tanking but the story is Osborne. Hats off to Mandy and Campbell who clearly know their Goebbles: “Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”

Fergus Pickering

November 15th, 2008 11:17pm Report this comment

What IS this stuff wuth being unable to spell Osborne's name. Japstick isn't the only one. For God's sdake get it right. OSBORNE. There - it's not so difficult.

Jon

November 16th, 2008 12:09am Report this comment

I see the The Times are still upping their attack on Osbourne in tomorrows Sunday Times (Isabel Oakeshott).

It's a shame that comments don't get published if The Times moderator doesn't agree with them

JohnAnt

November 16th, 2008 1:57am Report this comment

osborne and Cameron stupidly hobbled themselves with their undertaking of bipartisan support for the government. Freeing themselves from that is always going to be painful. If we didn't know Brown has no sense of humour, I'd say he was taking the p*** in his statement of 'regret'.

Diablo

November 16th, 2008 3:28am Report this comment

Was it my imagination that the audience of "Any Questions" in Scunthorpe (of all places) applauded louder for the nostrums prescribed by John Redwood, supporting the Osborne line on the disastrous weakening of the £ much louder than the weak responses from the Labour representative? The main Labour person (Rosie thing) was more interested in telling us how wonderful Labour's regional thingies would be in helping sandwich making companies identify new markets in North Lincolnshire - not exactly a bi-partisan approach. I regret that.

The Laughing Cavalier

November 16th, 2008 9:35am Report this comment

Osborne was simply drawing attention to the obvious. It is a fact that, ultimately, a Labour government is accompanied by economic collapse and a Sterling crisis. In 2009 Brown will have to go snivelling to the IMF for a bail-out just as Healey did.

Dalesman

November 16th, 2008 10:16am Report this comment

It's not before time that Osborne stepped into the fray. brown and his cronies have been getting everything their own way for too long.
it was good that Clarke stepped in and backed Osborne too.

seb

November 16th, 2008 11:34am Report this comment

@ cheshire cat
@ claire

Yes, the news is good. The Saviour of the World - and I just can't believe this!! - seems to have been ignored by his juniors at the G20 meeting.

Judging by bloggers reactions elsewhere, Osborne's comments have gone down well. In the end, the next election will be won by whichever group is larger: those who understand what Brown has done, and are livid, and those who don't understand and don't care but would like a tax rebate, thanks very much.

Praguetory

November 16th, 2008 11:41am Report this comment

There already has been a 'run' on sterling. Isn't this a case again of George being a little behind the curve?

strapworld

November 16th, 2008 1:17pm Report this comment

Brown is going to give money to the poorly paid!!! That means all those on benefits! probably pensioners, so that they will be well disposed to voting Labour!

If anything points to a very early election January or February spread over two days at a weekend ( because of the dark nights) you had better believe me!

Cameron should have a war cabinet set up (BROWN HAS) ready for the dirty fight and he must bring in people who have not had a private education (Yes David we do exist). Because they need a message or messages that will resonate with ALL PEOPLE!

Littlejohn. Gaunt. Ferrari.Lennox Lewis
people with STREET CRED who will Kick the backsides of Brown and Co.

teledu

November 16th, 2008 1:50pm Report this comment

I'm no accountant or economics graduate so am a little confused. Osbourne on the Andrew Marr show says UK debt is the worst in the developed world yet Darling on Politics North West says debt is lower than when they took office in 1997 .
Is it at all possible that Darling is right? As Spectator readers are we inclined to disbelieve anything that paints New Labour in a good light?
Is it possible that Brown has all the right answers and that we're just too blinkered to see it?
Either Darling or Osbourne are lying. But which one should Joe Public distrust?

Tiberius

November 16th, 2008 2:37pm Report this comment

Teledu: when the Tories left office, everything the country owed or was contracted to pay was counted.

Brown and Darling are only counting what they choose in saying debt has been reduced. If you add in the Northern Rock liability (as the ONS says you should), debt is higher than in 1997. If you add in PFI contracted payments, it goes higher still.

There were some PFI contracts in place in 1997, but not as many nor as much as now. Brown has chosen to make use of them because they require a different accounting treatment to actual recorded liabilities, so he can fiddle the figures by leaving them out.

In short they are like leasing "commitments" as opposed to HP "liabilities". But they still consume cash.

Faceless Bureaucrat

November 16th, 2008 2:48pm Report this comment

Strapworld - 1.17pm

"If anything points to a very early election January or February spread over two days at a weekend ( because of the dark nights) you had better believe me!"

And the Conservatives are still sleepwalking as regards getting PPCs in place - some 40% of constituency Associations haven't even begun to choose a Candidate. So the same old scenario beckons - snap Election called, Conservatives caught with their trousers down and having to rush around like headless chickens to put PPCs into constituencies 'on the hoof'. As such, Candidates have little or no knowledge of the constituency they are supposed to be fighting and are disadvantaged from the outset. What exactly IS John Maples doing in CCHQ?...

richard bond

November 16th, 2008 3:01pm Report this comment

This makes fascinating reading. However there is one matter that needs closer examination. The stock market is now a happy hunting ground for locusts called hedge funds/private equity assett strippers. We need to know if the CONSERVATIVE PARTY relies on donations from these unsavoury characters....wherever they keep residence on their luxury yachts in the south of France. The conspiracy to get Osborne seems to have been hatched on one of those luxury yachts...now with the personal approval of Lord Kalms.

Hoolio

November 16th, 2008 5:13pm Report this comment

I can’t believe the Telegraph this afternoon (”The British Government is under international pressure to cut taxes by £30 billion to help pull the country out of recession.” http://tinyurl.com/5du8b8).

The Telegraph story is a huge distortion of what the IMF actually said about the G20 communique. In fact, Mr. Strauss-Kahn noted (quote) that the Summit Declaration recognizes that some countries have more room for maneuver than others. “We believe that those countries - advanced and emerging economies - with the strongest fiscal policy frameworks, the best ability to finance fiscal expansion, and the most clearly sustainable debt should take the lead,” he said. (unquote). I wouldn’t have thought he had the UK economy in mnd.

Moreover, if you compare early drafts of the G20 communique with the final version (see Dani Rodrik’s weblog at http://rodrik.typepad.com — Dani is a Harvard professor of political economy), most of the draft guff about fiscal stimulus was removed from the final communique, one imagines by the other 19 leaders at the G20 summit. In other words, what really seems to have happened at the summit is that the Great Helmsman was comprehensively snubbed.

Mr Osborne was right to warn about the run on the pound.

Hoolio

November 16th, 2008 5:16pm Report this comment

I can’t believe the Telegraph this afternoon (”The British Government is under international pressure to cut taxes by £30 billion to help pull the country out of recession.” http://tinyurl.com/5du8b8).

The Telegraph story is a huge distortion of what the IMF actually said about the G20 communique. In fact, Mr. Strauss-Kahn noted (quote) that the Summit Declaration recognizes that some countries have more room for maneuver than others. “We believe that those countries - advanced and emerging economies - with the strongest fiscal policy frameworks, the best ability to finance fiscal expansion, and the most clearly sustainable debt should take the lead,” he said. (unquote). I wouldn’t have thought he had the UK economy in mnd.

Moreover, if you compare early drafts of the G20 communique with the final version (see Dani Rodrik’s weblog at http://rodrik.typepad.com — Dani is a Harvard professor of political economy), most of the draft guff about fiscal stimulus was removed from the final communique, one imagines by the other 19 leaders at the G20 summit. In other words, what really seems to have happened at the summit is that the Great Helmsman was comprehensively snubbed.

Mr Osborne was right to warn about the run on the pound.

Rob C

November 16th, 2008 7:54pm Report this comment

The simple truth of the last 12 months is that Labour have been reactive on events and acted too late at every twist & turn of the meltdown. A good proactive government would have planned better, been more prudent and seen this crisis coming - all the signs were there over a year ago. I don't even believe that the iceberg analogy cuts it - icebergs move, and the government should not only have been looking, but they should have known the mess was there as they made it! Steering straight into a cliff is more accurate. Once Sterling has fallen below $1, the economic fallout will be dire for us all as double-digit inflation will force double-digit interest rates - and unlike the 90's they will be high for a long time. The rest of the world will turn the corner before us because of the UK debt and Browns humiliation will be complete. By this time however we'll have packed his bags in a general election and he'll spin it as everyone else's fault. I only wish I could afford to emigrate...

DM

November 16th, 2008 10:12pm Report this comment

As one who wrote in favour of Hague replacing Osborne two days ago, I am very pleased to see Osborne up his game. Long may it continue. Keep at it George. Keep telling the truth about the state of the economy ..make the running and spell it out. This country needs to learn what Brown has been doing. Tories must attack, attack, attack.

hadrian

November 17th, 2008 10:33pm Report this comment

'Talk down the pound'...that's alaugh, isn't it, considering just how 'down' it is anyway. The point is it could fall much, much further if Broon is left to get away with it. The man reeks sanctimoniousness of the most malodorous kind. And surely you're not suggesting, Fraser, that a kind hearted, public spirited socialist like Broon would even toy with the idea of financial scorched earth which could only hit the poorest hardest, just out of political pique?! Broon is after all of olympian moral stature, secomd only to Obama...

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