Do the forecasts point to an early election?

Sally Chatterjee

Obama's coming to the next G20 meeting in London in April. Brown will see hosting this meeting as the crowning height of his statesmanship and we'll see an election in May.

The "fiscal stimulus" is really an election bribe, so an early election allows the government to bribe voters before they realise they've got tax rises plus interest the following year, as well as a sabotaged currency.

scribbler1

All true as regards the economy. But, if, as I understand, there will be a G20 meeting in England in April 09, Brown will not call an election before then because of the distinct possibility (probability?) that he would lose. But imediately afterwards, when he is basking in the glory of once more saving the world, it will be a different matter.

Simon Isherwood

Now that Brown has the support of Campbell and Mandelson and Tory financial policy is in such disarray (or at least being kept hidden from the electorate), it is quite on the cards that Brown will call an early election. 2010 will be far too late because the disastrous effects of the steps being currently undertaken will be felt by even the most partisan voter; whereas early in 2009, everyone will still be bemused by the spin and the feel-good effect brought on by the naive belief that Gordon is saving the world.

Nicholas

He would still lose. Change we need and a lot is going to happen between now and next April to shift the world view of Obama.

Besides, whatever, GB's "standing" in his own delusional mind people (especially young people) are fed up with Labour and want them out. Forget the polls, especially the New Labour ones like YouGov, and the BBC, it will be a landslide and I look forward to enjoying a "Portillo moment" with Harmon and Smith.

Geoff

Brown has turned running the economy into a crap shoot. With every losing roll, he borrows some more. Now a compulsive gambler he is driven gamble for higher stakes. Why not an election? He's got the bug!

JONNY

If he can't crack the current Tory share around 40 he can't win.
So he won't do it.

C Powell

A definite possibility and I think the Tories should stop assuming that they will have until 2010 to make their case. Though whether an election which would be characterised as a "cut and run" election would given him what he craves I doubt. Also, if you look at the comments in response to J Ashley's Guardian column today you will see that a lot of people (mostly, I imagine, ex-Labour) know perfectly well that Brown has been in charge and is largely responsible for the mess we're in and do not buy the myth that he is the great saviour of the world.

Gordon Musgo

There isn't a bottle bank big enough for him to make a withdrawal of courage to call an election he might lose. He'll go to the last day.

TGF UKIP

I have been posting for some while now that I believed Gordon would go in Spring 09, probably March/April. I do take Sally Chattterjee's point, though, about G20 in April but one way or another it will be Spring 09.

Osborne in his current position is a huge gift to Gordon, as polling consistently confirms, and if he leaves it too long the penny might finally drop with Dave.

I don't usually disagree with Nicholas but I think the result will be extremely close with a hung parliament the most likely outcome. Don't forget, Nicholas, the vast difference in polling support between the increasingly Tory South and the seemingly determinedly Labour North. The Tories will also need to have a substantial lead in the North as well, for a landslide.

However, given what an appalling government this is in every manner, a tight result or hung parliament will be almost as big a condemnation of this Tory Party as an opposition as a Labour victory would be.

Mike, Brighton

TGF UKIP - I agree with much of what you write (and I'm a Tory!). But....
a) The polls will lead to a go/no-go for Gordon in Spring 09. Given political betting's "golden rule" the polling has barely changed. Labour is still some distance behind and will lose. Frankly given the economic background the polls will only get worse for them.
The only credible reason for going early (given this context) is to minimise a Tory majority. We can both imagine a Spring '09 campaign about Labour "cutting n running", hiding further tax rises and running before the depths of recession hits middle-England. It will be very nasty in Spring 09 and very nasty in Spring '10.
b) Osborne is not going anywhere whatever his shortcomings. Saying he is a "huge gift to Gordon" is merely repeating the Mandelson/BBC narrative. Ask why does the BBC/Labour Party want him moved? To destabilise the Tories. I listened to Today this morning banging on about Osborne and wondered why they were majoring on this and not the shocking state of the economy. Mandelson's spin.
c) The polls do not point to a close election (as a), given current polling it will not be a hung parliament but a Tory majority. I would not claim it as a landslide but the Tories appear strong in the South and Midlands which will be enough for a workable majority. Labour's payroll vote is too big for a Tory landslide.

liz Brown

it does seem likely that money down thedrain Brown will go for an Election next year (egged on my Mndlebum and Camballs) before the s*&^t really hits the fan - and the general public is so stupid that he will be re-elected - especially, if he "buys" them. God help us all

Ian C

The Pre-budget report and the Budget in March will be the determinants of this.

If I were Darling I would forecast meltdown deficits for the year next week, take the flak while GB is is as high as a kite, while their spinning that debt rise is good is working for the time being and then proclaim victory in March when the Budget figures are not quite that bad.

It is all high risk stuff but it is this sort of risk that Labour have to take to have an option on a spring election. It is the Mandy and Campbell approach that is stiffening GB's spine at present and is a challenge to DC and the Tories, not aided by Osbourne coming second against Mandy in the spinning game.

DC needs to get strategic about the future of the economy and government and fast. He has been relying on a tactical game and they are up against the master of that - Mandy, and it is the only one Brown is any good at.

David C

I think Sally C's analysis is sound.
But aren't the Locals and Europeans in June?
What is the state of Labour Party finances at the moment?

Pete, Scotland

Labour friends around me, which is almost everybody, think spring is when Brown will go for it.

My constituency MP is Des Browne (sacked from Defence Minister, sacked from Scottish Secretary).

It could be that they don't know anything, but they are pretty confident that Brown will go for a quick election.