The Tories should move all their MPs to Witney or Tatton
James Forsyth 2:16pm
One of the underappreciated factors in Obama’s success is that his campaign was not based in the Washington area. This meant there were fewer journalists around, fewer bits of gossip were picked up in bars and restaurants and those who moved to Chicago to work for the campaign were focused on getting Obama elected and not worried about protecting their own reputations among the political and journalistic elite. It all aided the ‘No drama with Obama’ mantra and meant that when he hit a rocky patch the effect wasn’t amplified by a string of stories filled with blind quotes from staffers about worries within the campaign. By contrast, when the Clinton and McCain campaigns ran into trouble there were a slew of stories about who was to blame. In both cases, the campaign post-mortems began look before either candidate had actually lost.
The Westminster Village has the same feedback effect. If the past week since I’ve been back is anything to go by, there will be lots of jittery Tory MPs fretting to journalists about the new MORI poll that shows the Tory lead down to three percent. This in turn will produce stories about Tory nervousness and dissatisfaction with the party’s economic positioning and Osborne’s performance. This will make it harder for the party to gets its message across and make the Tories look divided; and so the cycle continues.
It is crucial for the Tories that the parliamentary party holds its nerve, this is only one poll and, as Pete points out, the polls that come a week or so after the PBR will give us a far better sense of the state of play. But the leadership could allay a lot of the nervousness among backbenchers by doing a better job of explaining to them what their strategy is.
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Simon
November 18th, 2008 2:56pm Report this commentIt's a terrible poll.
Punk Economist
November 18th, 2008 3:09pm Report this commentQuite right, James. Irresponsible speculation by journalists should be banned. A point you make eloquently at great length in all of your opinion pieces.
So, you and Chairman Mao going to work in the paddyfields from now on?
David Lindsay
November 18th, 2008 4:54pm Report this commentWhat are those (these) areas actually like? If he got that right, then it wouldn't matter if he happened to get it right from an office in London.
Manufacturing, for which the weak pound is good, still accounts for more than twice the GDP of the entire financial services sector, never mind the (lame duck, heavily subsidised) City alone.
Now all we need to do is sort out the threat (only initially economic) from un-unionised, child-exploiting sweatshops, not least by persuading other comparable sovereign states, as such, to do likewise, all in the interests of our workers' proper wages, proper working conditions, proper skills and proper status.
An economic populist and economic patriot, elected by and thanks to trade unionists and paleoconservatives, is about to enter the White House.
strapworld
November 18th, 2008 4:56pm Report this commentThis is quite disgraceful.
Just think about it. MORI are too close for comfort to the Murdoch's and Brown. I just fear that we, the British people, are being taken for idiots.
I do NOT believe this poll and I think the Tories should announce that they will, when elected, have a full enquiry into Opinion Polls, their methodology and publish their findings.
IF Bias is identified then legislation will be brought in bringing with it tight controls.
Tally
November 18th, 2008 5:18pm Report this commentIt's crucial for Cameron to completely revamp his shadow caibnet starting with Osborne, Duncan and Grieve being moved.
Ed B
November 18th, 2008 5:54pm Report this commentTally, and others on previous comment threads. You may think you are keepers of the true Blue Flame, but I am sorry to tell you that to the rest of us you look like prize lily-livered poltroons. After enjoying a purple patch in the polls, at the first sound of gunfire you scurry back, custard-like, to your ideological cave and start carping about the leader. From a safe distance of course.
Just step back for a moment and consider where the Tory party is now, compared to 2005, and who led it there.
If you don't like it, then why don't you s*d off and join the rest of the malcontents in UKIP in a game of pocket billiards?
Kevyn Bodman
November 18th, 2008 5:55pm Report this commentstrapworld is not right in wanting an enquiry into opinion polls and legislation if they are found to be biased.
Believe them or not as you choose.
But bias is everywhere;eliminate bias and the CoffeeHouse, and the Speccie, closes.
That's where strapworld's idea would lead.
Let's have unbiased comment and biased comment in the debate and people can use their judgement on which is which.
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