Tories 3 points ahead in latest poll

The latest YouGov poll for the Telegraph has the Tories on 41, Labour 38 and the Liberal Democrats languishing on a 11 percent. I suspect that both main parties will be fairly happy with these numbers. Labour will be relieved to still be within striking distance after such an awful few weeks. While the Tories will be delighted to be ahead and over the crucial forty percent mark.

Gordon Brown’s personal ratings have taken a battering after the whole debacle of the cancelled election. His net satisfaction rating is now minus 11, a plurality of people see him as indecisive and an absolute majority see the government’s ‘stealing of Conservative clothes’ as ‘feeble and opportunistic.’

The details of the poll, though, show the work that the Tories still have to do. By 65 percent to 18, voters are unsure of what a Conservative government will do and 60 percent still don’t know if there is substance behind David Cameron’s words. Cameron lags behind Brown on two key personal measures, trailing Brown on reliability and experience 48 to 32 and narrowly more voters view him as a lightweight compared to Brown than not. The good news for the Tories is that with an election not likely until 2009, they have ample time to explain to the electorate what they would do if they got into government while Cameron’s stature will grow if the Tories remain ahead in the polls.

On e of the most worrying numbers in the poll for Brown is that the number of people who would be dismayed if there was a Tory government after the election has dropped from 52 percent on the eve of the 2005 election to 39 percent; this suggests that there will be far less tactical voting at the next election against the Tories. Yet, with the Lib Dems set to get a bounce on electing their new leader the political scene is likely to remain volatile until early 2008.