Obama's other challenge
James Forsyth 1:46pm
There has been a lot of attention on the immense domestic challenges that Obama will face once he has been sworn in, but the foreign policy problems haven’t gone away. Not only is America fighting two wars but Obama is almost going to have work out what to do about Iran which is far along the path to nuclear status. As The New York Times puts it in its story on the latest IAEA report:
“Even so, for President-elect Barack Obama, the report underscores the magnitude of the problem that he will inherit Jan. 20: an Iranian nuclear program that has not only solved many technical problems of uranium enrichment, but that can also now credibly claim to possess enough material to make a weapon if negotiations with Europe and the United States break down.American intelligence agencies have said Iran could make a bomb between 2009 and 2015. A national intelligence estimate made public late last year concluded that around the end of 2003, after long effort, Iran had halted work on an actual weapon. But enriching uranium, and obtaining enough material to build a weapon, is considered the most difficult part of the process.”
What to do about Iran is one of the most complicated foreign policy problems there is. But the consequences of Iran going nuclear are so dire—a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, Iran as the regional hegemon and stepped up Iranian support for rejectionist terrorists—that everything from direct negotiations to a full blockade, needs to be done urgently. Time for a full-court press is running short. If these approaches do not work, the adage that the one thing worse than bombing Iran is a nuclear Iran still holds to my mind.
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strapworld
November 20th, 2008 1:58pm Report this commentBut, isnt he going to go and talk to them? That is what he promised. No doubt his powers of persuasion will be able to bring a complete change of direction for Iran/ They will ask him to bring back the Shah and ask if he will authorise a change of name back to Persia.
I think, like all Democrats, he will not be able to make a decision. It will be left to the cool heads of Israel to bring this discussion to an end - and a new beginning! OR will it be the beginning of the end?
Matthew Blott
November 20th, 2008 3:06pm Report this commentI agree but the problem is James a lot of people think we've been here before - dire warnings about a rogue state obtaining WMD and the need for urgent action, sound familiar? It's the boy who cried wolf problem and I'm angry at the those who were so gung-ho over Iraq for getting us in this position as, unlike Iraq, I'm very concerned about Iran.
Verity
November 20th, 2008 3:17pm Report this commentI agree with Strapworld. Obama tragically overrates his powers of persuasion - especially given the evidence we have seen when he is not speaking from a script. He's good at delivering what others write, but so's Barbra Streisand.
Verity
November 20th, 2008 3:18pm Report this commentPS - Although, if we were going to send over a singer, I think Tina Turner might be a blast.
Ray
November 20th, 2008 4:32pm Report this commentThe best that Obama can hope for is to offer kind words and warm gestures in public as a means of convincing the Iranian people that the United States really does harbour no hostile intent towards them.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the new Secretary of State will need to warn them Iranian leadership that should the President's goodwill be rebuffed, then they will very quickly discover his nasty side too.
This 'madman' school of diplomacy might have worked had the State Department's envoy been pleading with Tehran not provoke President McCain. The problem is: will the Iranians really believe Obama has a nasty side and that he is prepared to upset the doves in both his own party and amongst his European fan base in order to demonstrate it?
David Lindsay
November 20th, 2008 4:46pm Report this commentWhy? What threat would it be to the United States?
Or, from our point of view, what threat would it be to the United Kingdom, or to any Realm or Terrtory having the Queen as Head of State?
This is simply not our problem (if it even exists).
Nor is it Obama's.
Augustus
November 20th, 2008 5:04pm Report this commentI fear that this US president, after much philosiphising about diplomacy, will end up wringing his hands and failing to act convincingly at any point about Iran's nuclear capability. He will undoubtedly end up saying that there is little that can be done about Iran enriching uranium. Meanwhile, Israel will just have to put in place the best missile defence system that it can, and its airforce will have to be ready to use those 'bunker busters' at any hint of a nuclear threat.
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