The Labour arguments for a June 4th poll
James Forsyth 2:14pm
The more people one speaks to the more one gets the impression that there might be an election early next year. The principal rationale for a poll in 2009 is ignoble: by 2010 the reality of recession will have caught up with Gordon Brown so he needs to go to the country before then.
There are a couple of particular attractions for June 4th—the date floated in the Evening Standard—for Labour. June 4th is also the date of the European election, this would ease the burden on Labour’s finances—Labour can’t afford to fight serious campaigns in both and so could suffer a momentum-reversing thrashing in the European elections if it waits until 2010 for a general election. But, perhaps, more importantly, holding the two polls on the same day would dent the Tory vote; the thinking is more Tory-inclined voters would vote UKIP in the general if they were voting UKIP in the Europeans that day. This could make the difference in some closely contested marginals.
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TomTom
November 21st, 2008 2:32pm Report this commentSuper. Can we have a Referendum the same day on EU, BBC, Immigration, and Union with Scotland ?
Let's get it all over on the one day and make it a Super Thursday....it is getting tedious with the drip drip drip of propaganda and moribund decay
Simon
November 21st, 2008 2:57pm Report this commentAh but now we dont know if this is genuine speculation or an attempt to stoke up speculation and get the poll ruled out - as per previous posts!
I think you will get your way. I think there is zero chance of a 2009 election and am going to be a hefty bet on it as well.
Andrew Forbes
November 21st, 2008 3:30pm Report this commentAlso, I think Brown knows he got it wrong last year. With Mandelson to hold his hand, he will have the bottle this time.
He also knows he's burning all this cash to stoke the economy for the very short term. He knows the economy won't look as good as it does now (help) for a while.
Furthermore, being 3% behind in the polls does give him a majority, if only a small one.
On top of that, and the importance of this cannot be exaggerated, he has said that he doesn't intend to serve a full term. Admittedly, at the time, he was probably trying to mollify a number of ambitious young cabinet ministers. What it means is that it is his sole ambition to be re-elected, and not be remembered as a useless PM that never one an election. Any of the problems he’s stocking up and worsening by the borrowing binge will be someone else’s under all scenarios.
Travis Bickle
November 21st, 2008 3:37pm Report this commentWell anyone who wastes their vote on UKIP in a general election (and doesn't have the intelligence to work out you can vote for different parties in the each election) deserves to be up watsit creek without a paddle, which is where we'll all be if somehow Brown pulls this one off.
Richard Holloway
November 21st, 2008 3:47pm Report this commentBy June we will already be experiencing the chilly winds of a full blown recession (or worse). Brown won't be up enough in the polls and will bottle it again. He'll then cling onto power for as long as possible.
HJ
November 21st, 2008 3:54pm Report this commentYou may be right. Brown is currently getting away with giving the impression to the more gullible electorate the idea that the recession is caused purely by global factors and that he is somehow the man to deal with it.
By mid 2009 more people will realise the hole we are in, but the full horros still won't be apparent. Public sector workers will still support Brown.
By 2010, surely everyone will realise what a complete mess we are in and even the public sector will understand that it will (out of necessity given the dire state of the public finances) affect them.
Hereford
November 21st, 2008 4:54pm Report this commentHJ: Problem is that 'the more gllible electorate' is the voting majority.
As long as they get cash now, to spend on fags, booze, bling and plasma telly, they'll vote for the biggest bidder.
TGF UKIP
November 21st, 2008 6:39pm Report this commentI've been posting for some while that it's going to be 09 and I have a hunch that it might just be earlier than everybody is assuming which appears to be post April and the G20 meeting, which therefore makes this 4th June date all the more logical.
My rationale for earlier than that is this. Gordon plans an "economy" election but there is a limit on the time that he can keep the political focus that narrow. He knows all about the funding problems but also knows the unions will cough up big time when required as will some of the big contributors who have an ideological affinity with Labour. However, to ensure he will not be comprehensively outspent by Labour he will go for a short surprise campaign.
He'll keep the political attention focused on the economy, keep shovelling the initiatives, attend multiple international gatherings to give the BBC every opportunity to make him the headline news lead, pick a fight with the Tories and then announce that the nation must express its will and declare an election within three weeks. Probably sometime in March.
And unless the Tories have some sort of political gumption implant in the meantime, he'll probably win.
My rationale is this
mac
November 22nd, 2008 10:24am Report this commentTGF - Entirely plausible.
Mandelson will be very happy to maintain the belief that bottler Brown won't dare call it early; the damage done by last year's feartie-ness is past and can't cause any more harm; but the bottler reputation tactically is a very useful smokescreen to persuade the Tories that 2010 is the target date.
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