How Brown might spin himself as our Value Added Saviour
Peter Hoskin 11:50am
As James indicated earlier, the problem for Brown is that his VAT cut just won't get noticed (and that the eventual rise in VAT - to 22.5 percent? - will be). That's why you can expect the rejuvenated Labour spin operation to work overtime trying to make it look like the measure's curing all our economic ills. How might they go about it? I wouldn't be surprised to see a near repeat of Brown's "working to lower oil prices" message from earlier this year. Then, he chatted with some Saudi princes, made a big show of it, and - hey presto! - oil prices started to fall dramatically. Of course, the fall was nothing to do with Brown. Oil prices were starting to drop anyway, because of reduced demand for oil during a recession. Our Dear Leader just hopped on to this falling trend, and claimed credit for it.
How would it work this time around? Well, the falling trend this time is inflation (see Fraser's blog here). Prices are going to stop rising so quickly or, in some cases, possibly even come down - and that's before any measure that Brown's taking. But most news outlets don't report these forecasts; leaving room for Our Dear Leader to sneak in with a new "working to make things more affordable - that's why we cut VAT" message. And - hey presto! - things will get more affordable. Of course, it would be disingenuous to its core. VAT isn't imposed on many of the goods that will be affected by falling inflation. But will that stop Brown taking credit? I doubt it. And it's that credit-taking that the opposition parties will have to counter.
P.S. Cameron appeared on Marr earlier and said that he was "highly sceptical" of the VAT measures. Details here.



Previous






seb
November 23rd, 2008 12:14pm Report this commentTwo pieces here, plus many on other sites, identify the VAT pruner as Brown. How about a small government saving on Darling's salary? He's obviously unemployed.
As the government is reported to be facing the loss of forty billion in revenue - year on year, some say - from the collapse of the financial sector, how can the state afford to lose a large amount of VAT revenue.
PS - how are the polls looking? I note that there is growing scepticism about the three percent gap. Isn't the true figure what we all had imagined it ought to be - about eleven or so percent in Cameron's favour?
molesworth 1
November 23rd, 2008 12:34pm Report this commentCurrently watching Brown on the Politics Show... he looks like a man who believes he has a 'cunning plan', but all I hear are the usual Brownies:
"it's all America's fault, we're best placed to weather the storm, the re-capitalised banks should start lending again"
No it isn't, no we're not & no they shouldn't.
Like many people, my understanding of finance & economics is limited, but currently expanding exponentially, & even I can see through this one. The one-eyed man was a king only in the kingdom of the blind.
Lance Grundy
November 23rd, 2008 1:38pm Report this comment“…the problem for Brown is that his VAT cut just won't get noticed (and that the eventual rise in VAT - to 22.5 percent? - will be).”
And an increase in VAT to 22.5 percent is highly symbolic - it is close to a quarter of the retail price of the item. [Close enough in fact to allow the Tories to use the phrase “nearly a quarter.“] That is a terrifyingly high figure and it is a line of attack the Conservatives need to use - and quick.
Brown’s Labour Party are borrowing so much money that in order to pay it back in one or two years time nearly a quarter of the asking price of most goods will be tax. Just think about that. Even if people aren’t good with percentages and economics, this is a message they can easily understand.
Travis Bickle
November 23rd, 2008 1:44pm Report this commentSo how come as , "We are best placed to come out of this recession", is Brown allowed to get away with now changing his tune to "Only drastic action now will save us"?
R Duck
November 23rd, 2008 2:44pm Report this commentHow different it is now Mandelson's pulling the strings. He could make a half-eaten kipper look like a leader.
Can Darling have some credit for these schemes please ? The bits that make sense, perhaps ?
StephenDC
November 23rd, 2008 3:04pm Report this commentZero chance, and i mean zero chance, that VAT gets increased beyond 17.5.
Smart money will be on NI increases to make up the tax shortfall to pay for the borrowing. By my rough calculations 0.75% on NI would be enough
TGF UKIP
November 23rd, 2008 4:52pm Report this commentYou're dead right, Peter, as in every recession every business will be discounting like mad to maintain volumes and of course Gordon is going to claim it's all down to him and his VAT "cut".
And because Dave and the rest of his gang are so wet and useless as an opposition, Gordon knows full well there's every chance he'll get away with it.
Lucky, lucky Gordon to have such an opposition.
Jim
November 23rd, 2008 5:51pm Report this commentHmmmmm. Over coming months VAT rcpts are going to plummet anyway as people stop buying. This much trumpeted "reduction" by Brown is simply smoke and mirrors to use as an excuse for the fact that he is going to have to increase borrowing to over £100bn just to cover government bills - by dressing the borrowing increase up as being needed to cover vital reductions in tax he hopes to hide the fact that the borrowing increase is being forced on him anyway by his profligacy in the last 11 years...
Breathtaking.
Nicholas
November 23rd, 2008 9:59pm Report this commentOf course a temporary reduction to 15% is just the means by which he will permanently raise it to 22.5%. Typical Brown.
Forget the 15%, watch for when the 22.5% kicks in.
Why aren't we besieging New Labour's police stations like the Icelanders?
Craig Mac
November 24th, 2008 10:45am Report this commentNocholas, the reason we're not protesting like the Icelanders is because it hasn't sunk in to most folk yet just how serious the situation really is. Give it till March/April next year and we'll see. I think people will splash out big time on Christmas this year almost in a "for a sheep or a lamb" manner.
Back to top