Pre-Budget Report: the morning after

Paul B

I think Fergus Shanahan in the Sun is an essential read this morning. He rips Darling Browns con to pieces,
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/fergus_shanahan/article1967000.ece

David

At long last, the fightback begins. But how much time do the Conservatives have before Labour reach the tipping point?

William Norton

There may be a way in for a debate of sorts - the VAT change is being made through the regulator. If memory serves, it requires a Treasury Order to be laid and debated if anyone prays against it. That would require someone to put their head above the parapet and object to the VAT cut, but you'd get a debate.

kinglear

I watched Osbourne yesterday and was particularly taken with how Brown smirked and apparently talked to people on either side of him, Darling picked up papers, ANYTHING to try to distract GO and get the cameras to watch them rather than GO.
Labour has consistently undermined and belittled Parliament, but with any luck this might just be going to bite them back

marbury

"Osbourne performed superbly yesterday". Are you sure, Peter? You and your colleagues seem to have forgotten that there's a world beyond Westminster. You're judging Osbourne's response on how it went down with Tory MPs and journalists. That's a pretty distorted view of the world. It may be right, I dunno. But on the other hand, most people might have seen Osbourne for a few seconds on TV last night and thought, what a braying, overbearing, adolescent twat. I mean, you must admit, that's not impossible.

HFC

Brown/Darling brought to mind the final play of a desperate man at the poker table: he's gone all in!

Alex

marbury - why don't you explain why you don't agree with Peter, rather than just rambling incoherently?

Daniel

Despite the strength of their economic case on the size of the PSBR, the Conservatives appear to have boxed themselves into a corner where they are forced to sound very negative, even highly alarmist, about the state of the economy in order to gain a hearing. Without wishing to under-state the gravity of the current crisis, it is worth recalling that the net PSBR hit similar levels in the mid-1990s under Ken Clarke (not quite as high, admittedly, but of a similar order of magnitude), so I'm not convinced it makes sense for the Tories to be placing so much emphasis on this. The negativity of the message also allows Brown and Darling to present themselves as the only ones coming up with constructive solutions. It would have been better, tactically, for the Tories to accept the case for an aggressive fiscal boost, but argue - as Obama has done in the US - for income tax cuts for middle income earners. More generally, they need, like Obama, to find a way to combine their critique of the incumbent government with a more positive message designed to foster hope and belief in a better future. It would also help if they could start outlining some proposed reforms of banking regulation that go beyond their by now ritual denunciations of the tripartite structure. One still gets the impression that they think they can pin all the blame on the Government. Voters don't buy this explanation, as it's obvious that much of the blame for our current predicament rests with the bankers.

Having said that, however, it is encouraging that Osborne now seems to have recognised the need for fresh thinking on monetary policy (eg government guarantees for loans to small businesses). But once the BoE has reduced interest rates again next month, it is unclear what (if any) scope there will be for further monetary relaxation, which leaves the Tories in danger of having no policy.

Ian C

Osborne did very well yesterday. He ignored the detail (we could all support some of the measures) because he the big picture painted by Darling was dreadful. Darling even tried to sound like he was doing us all a favour - taxing us later to pay back money we should not have had to find.

Osbourne did what has long been expected and this was only really going to be possible once the PBR was out.

King Lear you are right. The disrepect shown by Brown was appalling and he should be made to squirm.

Marbury

Alex suggests, rather brusquely, that I wasn't being clear (are you a schoolmaster by any chance, Alex?). Perhaps I wasn't, so let me explain. I'm suspicious of the instant consensus on this blog that Osborne did himself and his party a huge favour yesterday. As I tried to explain, the way that Tory MPs and journalists (and political obsessives generally) see the world is vastly different from that of most people. Sometimes they get the national mood right, sometimes not. I suspect in this case, not. The intangibles of the Osborne performance on TV will count for more than what he said. And they weren't good. He looked sixteen. He sounded like a bumptious public schoolboy. He was backed up by over-excited MPs, never a pretty sight. I may well be wrong about this. But until I've seen some kind of evidence that Osborne's speech was well-received by most voters then I'd be wary of assuming it was a triumph. That's all.

mac

Marbury:

I think that "He looked sixteen. He sounded like a bumptious public schoolboy" probably reflects your own opinion of GO rather than anything the watching British public might collectively conclude.

Given that the prime minister has been televised unashamedly picking his nose and consuming the resulting scavengings, perhaps such 'style' issues aren't as important as you suggest.

Brown's queer behaviour during GO's response to Darling's statement was far more instructive.