Why squeezing the rich doesn’t produce much juice
Fraser Nelson 6:11pm
A devastating blow against Brown's "tax the rich" plan from the Institue of Fiscal Studies today. How much will the new 45 percent tax rate for those over £170,000 raise? "Approximately nothing" says the IFS and adds that "HM Treasury would raise more with, eg, a 44 percent rate". This reminds us why most developed countries have cut their top marginal rate: it discourages risk-taking.
After the briefing, I asked why a higher tax could fail to collect more revenue. Mike Brewer from the IFS replied: "People will contribute more to their private pensions. Convert more income into capital gains. Emigrate. Work less." I asked him if, then, Brown's 45 percent tax rate could be described as "futile" and he just smiled.



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TGF UKIP
November 25th, 2008 6:49pm Report this commentQuite so, Fraser, but somewhere I have read today that the Tories have made it known that they do not intend to oppose the 45% rate. Is that so?
If it is, then someone, FN?, needs to remind them of the great RR's story of the farmer and his pig.
Or is it simply the case that after quite rightly opposing the vast borrowing, the Precious Pair are now scuttling back to their SocDem comfort zone?
GeoffH
November 25th, 2008 6:55pm Report this commentAs far as Labour are concerned, it's never been about raising more revenue but punishing anyone of whom it disapproves.
i.e. anyone outside their client base who has the temerity to make a success of their careers and become high earners.
This high earners in their client base will be compensated for the tax loss in some way. Pensions, Quango non-jobs on the side, gongs etc.
Reg
November 25th, 2008 6:55pm Report this commentYes, but give Gordon a break - he doesn't live in the real world.
James H
November 25th, 2008 7:15pm Report this commentTGF UKIP
I don't normally call commenters idiots, but I think I'll make an implicit exception for you. Were Cameron and Osborne to run around shrieking at the stupidity of the 45p rate, they would be playing straight into Labour's hands.
The Dandiprat
November 25th, 2008 7:41pm Report this commentI wonder what it must be like to walk out of work on a Friday, knowing that you have just cleared another £1600. Next week will be the same again.
I think if that was me, I'd put myself in the category of lucky, rich, don't have a care in the world.
Right enough, nobody wants to pay for all the scallies on the dole, but I'd still have a smile on my big fat overpaid face. How much money do you need to stop whingeing?
Luke
November 25th, 2008 7:47pm Report this commentI hear that the first post-PBR poll has cut the tory lead to just 4 points.
Wow
Yougov for the telegraph tomorrow.
bill
November 25th, 2008 7:51pm Report this commentWith all due respect and as some one who paid 60% tax, I think it is rubbish to think 45% tax will send them all running for the doors. And if tax relief on pension contributions was cut to basic/standard rate (isn't someone talling about that) they won't put it there. If they want to go to a tax haven, isn't there talk about the US tightening up on them. So maybe these people may have to pay their fare share at last.
Coeur de Lion
November 25th, 2008 7:59pm Report this commentWhy didn't Osborne excoriate Darling for the ridiculous reduction in VAT? (viz 20% marketing drops in Marks and Spencer will lose 2.13% in the noise).I'll tell you why - none of our politicians go out onto the high street these days. Have any of them tried to 'bring a major project forward early' ? They've no idea.
Polly and Alice's mum
November 25th, 2008 8:23pm Report this commentJames H, I do so agree with you. If the conservatives say they would cancel this tax, the likes of P Toynbee (to whom I am no relation, despite one of my daughters having that name) would scream "tax breaks for the rich..." The whole thing is a trap, and thankfully so far, the conservatives have not fallen into it.
Don
November 25th, 2008 9:09pm Report this commentOsborne has quite neatly sidestepped Browns 45% trap by merely stating that reducing it is not a priority. He has not said he will or wont drop it merely that it is not a priority
Hysteria
November 25th, 2008 9:33pm Report this commentBill - "fair share" - so who defines this then?
Sounds like code for "you earn more than me, so I want some of your money"
TGF UKIP
November 25th, 2008 10:12pm Report this commentJames H, my many other Coffee House critics usually have no problem in explicitly calling me an idiot - or worse!
Tiberius
November 25th, 2008 10:56pm Report this commentThe Tories don't need to oppose the 45% rate because no one is going to pay it.
It's not worth wasting time on. This is just Brown throwing a few symbolic scraps to the Left.
Tiberius
November 25th, 2008 11:12pm Report this commentHere's an example of Brown's tinkering at the margin that you'll want to tell your grandchildren.
HMRC no longer issue prepaid envelopes in which to submit your VAT return.
THX1138
November 25th, 2008 11:30pm Report this commentJames H TGF got called an Idiot by Oliver Kamm, how cool is that. We love TGF on this blog & actually I think he's right on this one. Tories should cutting taxes otherwise what's the point of them.
The top rate is an important symbol, work hard do well and we won't bleed you dry like those bloody socialists.
Cabbie got it right with that great quote from The West Wing
From Sam Seaborne
“I paid 23 times the national average in income tax. I paid my fair share, and the fair share of 22 other people. And I’m happy to, ‘cause that’s the only way it’s gonna work. And it’s in my best interest that everybody be able to go to schools and drive on roads. But I don’t get 23 votes on Election Day. The fire department doesn’t come to my house 23 times faster and the water doesn’t come out of my faucet 23 times hotter. The top one percent of wage earners in this country pay for 23 percent of this country. Let’s not call them names while they’re doing it, is all I’m saying.”
Fraser Nelson
November 25th, 2008 11:40pm Report this commentHey, TGF, wasn't Osborne great yesterday?
Tiberius
November 26th, 2008 9:38am Report this commentThere has never been a better example of a beautiful swan emerging from an ugly duckling, has there Fraser.
David Bouvier
November 26th, 2008 10:29am Report this commentTHX1138 beat me to it... except that since the top 1% pay 23% of income tax, they are paying around 30 times the average paid by the remaining 99%.
What we need to focus on is that Brown/Darling's messing with the personal allowance at £100k and £140k is a mean, stupid and less effective way of, in effect, starting the 45% rate at £100k.
I guess £100k is too aspirational, whereas £150k is distant enough from the average voters aspirations.
So the conservatives can say nothing now to avoid fighting on labours chosen ground, wait to see what happens to the tax take, and then if it does raise little revenue explain why when they reverse it in office.
P Williams
November 26th, 2008 10:37am Report this commentAs a small business owner I doubt if the 45% tax will have much effect. I pay myself a nominal small salary, on which I pay tax and NI contributions. The rest I take in dividends which are not affected by the Government's latest fiddling. Accordingly, I imagine most small business owners will do the same. This change will only effect employees that earn that much -- and are there that many in the Private sector that do? According to figures I recently saw, the MD of a medium sized enterprise's average salary is in the region of £120K. Accordingly, the only people really effected by this measure are the Public Sector Rich List!
Oscar
November 26th, 2008 11:21am Report this commentSoak the rich? This isn't even lightly marinating them. As ever Brown plays for heartland headlines - there's no substance here at all.
David Lindsay
November 26th, 2008 3:49pm Report this comment"it discourages risk-taking"
Good.
hadrian
November 26th, 2008 10:55pm Report this commentAnything above 10% taken in tax is state theft- end of matter.
Martin Miller
November 27th, 2008 12:04am Report this comment"it discourages risk-taking"
Good.
Coeur de Lion
November 27th, 2008 7:24pm Report this commentSee Libby Purves re the VAT increase in today's Times (and my earlier entry) She should have been on the Tory benches. Terrific
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