Will Labour's poll gains unravel with the PBR?

griff

Latest PBR figures from the DT

Of total expenditure of 623bn in 2008/09 the debt interest paid element is 34bn.

By simple arithmetic this represents:

at interest of 3.5% = debt of £971bn = 155% of total expenditure

at interest of 4.0% = debt of £850bn = 136% of total expenditure

at interest of 4.5% = debt of £755bn = 121% of total expenditure

at interest of 5.0% = debt of £680bn = 109% of total expenditure

Or am I missing something?

Nicholas

I don't trust any of these polls, especially YouGov which pre-determines political leaning before polling. It is hard to believe that 36% of the people asked are idiotic enough to trust Not So New Labour.

strapworld

Strange this one. The cynic in me says that it was designed to put pressure on the Conservatives at PMQ's - for Labour to claim that the Country was behind their measures.....but the wheels came of their cart in a very dramatic and public way and so this poll will be disregarded.

Let us not forget that this is a YOUGOV poll and they are becoming, in my opinion, extremely unreliable.

Ian C

The drip, drip of bad news will counter this very heavily 'tween now and the spring at least, especially as this sort of thing endorses what Osborne is saying: -

"It now costs more to protect the UK government against default than several UK companies." and

"the next four years, could lead to gilt auctions failing as the government struggles to attract enough investors for its targeted fund raisings". Today's FT.

straw hat

i just don't understand the results of a poll like this. having listened to the radio phone-ins and scanned all of the comments on websites it seems like only about 1 in ten people seemed to think that this was a good plan and that the large majority of people thought that labour had messed up everything. even on CIF the vast majority seemed fed up with the lies and mismanagement.

i simply cannot believe that 36% of the population support labour at present and that there must be some flaw with the selection of correspondents. mind you myfather always used to remind me that you could never overestimate the intelligence of the british public!!

Spencer

I think a bit like the David Davis affair the reaction on the street has been different to the westminster village.

Most people support the idea of action now rather than no action - which Cameron has been very keen to reject.

Today's VAT issue is likely to cause a real dent for the government, but the further question is whether as other countries adopt a similar stimulus the long-term view of the PBR improves and the tories look a little out of touch.

Peter Wilson

Those over at Politicalbetting seemed to be urging caution with reading this poll as a response to the PBR, because there's doubts over the way it was conducted and, as you say, the PBR won't have time to be digested properly yet.

The polls to look out for apparently are those at the weekend, especially the one by ICM.

I personally would be very surprised if the PBR doesn't have a negative effect Labour's ratings.

TrevorsDen

A change of -1% is well within a margin for error - it could well have been +3%.

Strangely the BBC were saying this was a change of 5% not 1% since last poll. Hey ho with the propaganda.

Th problem with this poll is a lot of it was taken Monday evening and there is no way that the PBR and its huge PSBR could have sunk in. The fact that there has been no change following the last shot from Browns locker is not particularly good for labour.

Political Betting points out
"its weightings are relatively unfavourable to the Lib Dems and quite friendly to Labour "

JONNY

Even on these figures (about which I'm as wary as the other posters) yes even on these he'd be mad to go to the country.
Not unless he can breach the Tory 40% stronghold.
If that fortress holds he cannot win.

Oscar

This is a no change poll - signifying absolutely nothing. Once the tax bombshell news has had an impact just watch Conservative fortunes rise - along with Osborne's reputation.

Tim Hedges

Griff: it should have read 'debt servicing costs' which include repayments

Dean

There is an explanation for the apparent paradox of public hostility to the Government's PBR and a narrower poll gap. The Tories need to make significant gains with lower and middle income voters in the North of England (as they did in Crewe and Nantwich) to regain power, but it is precisely these voters, and their counterparts in the South, who will be most susceptible to the "Same old Tories" counter-attack which Brown, Mandelson and Co. are now aggressively pressing home. In my view, this argument is probably gaining traction amongst some key floating voter groups as a result of the Tories' bizarre decision to reject a priori any possibility of a Keynesian fiscal stimulus. This will suggest to many voters that the Party has not, in fact, changed, that it is still wedded to Thatcherite laissez-faire economics, and consequently presents too big a risk in a severe recession. Mandelson, in particular, has always argued that Cameron's re-branding of the Tories was simply cosmetic, and you can be sure that this argument will form the centrepiece of any Labour election strategy.

The Tories seem to be taking a calculated gamble that the present crisis will inevitably cause serious political damage to the incumbent government. This is the essence of the argument put forward in Daniel Finkelstein's article in today's Times.

I think this argument is flawed -the nature of this crisis is such that it transcends party politics, and - more importantly from the Tories' standpoint - it has also discredited the brand of neo-liberal free market economics to which the Tory Party still appears to be wedded. Once you factor this in, it becomes far less certain whether the economic mess will necessarily destroy Labour and bring the Conservatives back to power. If Labour can scare sufficient numbers of economically vulnerable voters into believing that the Tories haven't fundamentally changed, we may see a more narrowly fought contest.

I'd like to see a more nuanced policy response from the Tories. At the moment, they seem to be falling back on old Thatcherite certitudes that have little relevance in a situation where governments around the world are taking majority stakes in global financial institutions.

The Wilted Rose

The YouGov detailed poll figures are interesting.

The Tories still have a 50% advantage in London and the South East, where much of the economic misery is concentrated this time, compared to 29% in London and 26% in the SE for Labour.

Labour is ahead in the North but women are 42% for Conservatives and 33% for Labour - they don't like Brown, do they? Brown has women problems.

The Tories are also 10 points ahead amongst the ABC1s.

For more detailed analysis, see
http://thewiltedrose.wordpress.com

liz Brown

I used to be polled regularly by You Gov but have not been for many months now. Is this because I consistently put my tick for the Conservatives?

Max

Liz Brown;
I agree with your comments I live in a marginal seat and after saying to YOUGOV I would vote Conservative I am no longer asked how I would vote in an election, am just asked pointless questions by them

FFScotland

I am old enough to have lived through several economic cycles. I don't recall the electorate or many politicians every worrying much about the PBR. The public debt balloons and occasionally contracts; from time to time governments make vague attempts to pay some of it down.

People will vote for other reasons, I believe.

carol42

Come to think of it I haven't had a political poll from yougov for ages either. I think they are cutting out declared Conservative voters - strange as that would undermine their reputation as pollsters.