Tibet may be important - but so is the world economy
Daniel Korski 4:38pm
Today China cancelled the long-planned EU-China summit because French President Nicolas Sarkozy was planning to meet the Dalai Lama later in the year. Such short-sightedness serves no one.
Though it appears to be shielded from the financial tumult, China will eventually be hurt by the current crisis. China needs 9-10% growth if it is to absorb 24 million new labourers a year. To keep this rate of expansion, China’s economy relies on exports, real property growth and government spending. But US and European consumers can no longer consume at the debt-supported levels they have at the past. When exports market disappear, normal economies rely on domestic consumption. But China has no domestic consumption to speak of. So a slump in exports means factories closing, and people getting laid off. It also means a downturn in real property growth, as new construction is likely to decline.
That leaves public spending as an engine for growth. The Chinese government plays a more significant role in the economy than is the case in the West. But it is unlikely that increased government spending can make-up the difference from the lack of export and real property growth. The result is likely to mean politically dangerous growth rates at 5-6%. So though the current crisis has seen China invited to the international top table – for example the G20 - Beijing still needs to work to keep trade links as open as possible, particularly with the EU.
But Europe needs China too. To paraphrase Lord Mandelson - the only thing more frightening than China's exponential growth is the possibility of it crashing, or that it isolates itself outside the international trading system. Europe has invested in 29,000 enterprises in China and domestic sales from these run to $24,000 per hour and exports to $5 million per hour. So despite China’s trade surplus vis-à-vis the EU, European companies reap considerable profits from their investments in the Middle Kingdom. Even at 5-6% growth, this will be larger than in any EU countries. Problems with access to Chinese markets, the low level of Chinese consumption and the thorny issue of Intellectual Property Rights need to be addressed if European businesses are not to take a hit at a bad time.
Europe also needs China’s help in staving off a worldwide recession. The U.S and Britain have turned to the Arab Gulf states to secure funds for the International Monetary Fund, China could play a much greater role than it currently does; the Chinese government’s recent $586 billion stimulus package shows that it can spend money if it wants to. In addition, the Chinese Investment Corp, Beijing’s sovereign wealth fund, which manages US$ 200 billion of assets, could be a key investor in the West’s failed banks and companies. No doubt this brings risks, but so does the collapse of many of these banks and companies.
If China is letting its preoccupation with Tibet cloud its foreign policy thinking, the EU’s internal division are undermining Europe’s China policy. Francois Godement, a French China expert, points out that “senior European leaders have scandalously failed to coordinate on the issue of Tibet and the Dalai Lama”, which has probably led Chinese leaders to conclude that the EU can be publicly provoked at no significant political cost. His British colleague, John Fox, urges European leaders “to show China that [they] cannot be divided and bullied and that the current Chinese actions damage both sides’ interests."
Europe and China need each other and though neither cannot be expected to abandon long-standing interests, the two partners ultimately stand to gain from improved links.
Previous
David Lindsay
November 26th, 2008 5:01pm Report this commentBefore 1959, Tibet was certainly ruled by the Dalai Lama, by the lamas generally, and by the feudal landlord class from which the lamas were drawn. ("Dalai" is a family name - only a member of the House of Dalai can be the Dalai Lama.)
Well over ninety per cent of the population was made up of serfs, the background from which the present rulers of Tibet are drawn.
That system was unique in China, and existed only because successive Emperors of China had granted the Tibetan ruling clique exactly the "autonomy" for which it still campaigns from "exile". Life expectancy in Tibet was half what it is today.
There has never been an independent state of Tibet, the Tibetans themselves migrated there from further east in China, huge numbers of them never did and never have done (the Dalai Lama himself was born hundreds of miles outside Tibet), and, likewise, the presence of large numbers of Han (ethnic Chinese in the ordinary sense) and other Chinese ethnic groups in Tibet is nothing remotely new.
The one child policy does not apply in Tibet, so the Han majority there is the ethnic Tibetans' own fault, if they even see it as a problem.
It is totally false to describe the Dalai Lama as "their spiritual leader"; few are those who would view him as such, and even fewer are those of that mind inside Tibet.
But why let the facts get in the way of reliving the glory days of flower power and Cold War Trotskyism?
BrianSJ
November 26th, 2008 5:08pm Report this commentThis is the politics of the gas chamber.
Even within an economic framework, in terms of China regional policy my reading of
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JK26Ad01.html
is that supporting Tibet is all to the good.
Rhoda Klapp
November 26th, 2008 5:19pm Report this commentIf we are relying on China, and in the euphoria of just a few months ago could not see just howe fragile the edifice was, more fool us. The demographic time bomb in China is far worse than here. There is nothing to support the unemployed or the old. There are four grandparents for each child. Nobody can continue with 10% growth without massive strains. Don't look to China to be there when we need it. Don't expect the China that has got used to being a world power to like being broke, or to admit that it is, and lose face.
Verity
November 26th, 2008 5:59pm Report this comment"If China is letting its preoccupation with Tibet cloud its foreign policy thinking ...".
Clue: The Chinese don't let anything cloud their thinking. They are the most focussed government in the world - after Singapore (which is run by ethnic Chinese).
Second, people should refrain from commenting on Tibet and the Dalai Lama and chimerical plans for an "independent Tibet". The Dalai Lama himself has already stated that he acknowledges that Tibet has benefitted from Chinese investment and governance. He asks only that Tibet be allowed cultural and religious independence.
When did Daniel Korski suddenly become an authority on China? He should look to blogs by Westerners living in China or familiar with it from frequent vists rather than Google for his information. From what I can gather, consumer spending is high. The whole country is littered with flatpak furniture shops (can't remember the name, but it's Swedish).
RUBIN GOLDSTEIN
November 26th, 2008 6:01pm Report this commentIf China sold their Us Treasuries.
The $ would collapse.
Then hyperinflation would come about.
China can revalue their currency and money in China would flood in.
Us is doomed without China.
Tanuki
November 26th, 2008 8:01pm Report this commentThe Dalai Lama is about as relevant to China's economic outlook as the Archbishop of Canterbury is to the UK economic game, or the Pole to Italy's.
I truly don't want world economics to pay attention to a bunch of outdated delusional god-botherers.
Verity
November 27th, 2008 2:25am Report this commentTanuki, sweetie, I thought we had ridded ourselves of the fleas of fundamentalist atheism.
But if not, Tanuki, answer this: who is being "bothered" if there is no God?
Verity
November 27th, 2008 3:06am Report this comment"The Dalai Lama is about as relevant to China's economic outlook as the Archbishop of Canterbury is to the UK economic game, or the Pole to Italy's."
I think "the Pole" was the last Pope?
Jackbros
November 27th, 2008 6:08am Report this commentDavid Lindsay,
Your comment is as futile as you seem to be. You knew nothing about Dalai history. Each Dalai Lama is reincarnated and never had been from same family incumbent. In fact it usually finds the next one on the basis of series of test and prophesies. For your kind information, there had never been two successive dalai lama's from one family.
You got this wrong, so the rest of your comments are all rubbish with no clue of what you are writing..
Foolish Chinese fed thugs
saimneor
November 27th, 2008 8:59am Report this commentWhy would China do business with Europe when she is required to cut off the left arm as the pre-condition for a meeting?
Melodie
November 27th, 2008 3:41pm Report this commentStrong support!!! we really do not need anybody else talk too much about something internal our Country especially Sarcozy, he is a liar and an ingrate, he cheated big contracts from China and he forgot how China government support him when he is down in his political career. plus, we can hold a meeting with the leaders of Corsica also, will he happy because of the freedom? nonsense!!! look at the France! is there as developement? why he does not spend some time for his people and his infamous wife? this is the only right things he should to do. haha....
Melodie
November 27th, 2008 3:42pm Report this commentStrong support!!! we really do not need anybody else talk too much about something internal our Country especially Sarcozy, he is a liar and an ingrate, he cheated big contracts from China and he forgot how China government support him when he is down in his political career. plus, we can hold a meeting with the leaders of Corsica also, will he happy because of the freedom? nonsense!!! look at the France! is there as developement? why he does not spend some time for his people and his infamous wife? this is the only right things he should to do. haha....
David Lindsay
November 27th, 2008 4:05pm Report this commentNo, Jackbros, they all come from the House of Dalai. It's their family name. They are a big family, but even so.
The "foolish Chinese fed thugs" are presumably the people of Tibetan serf extraction who have doubled life expectancy in Tibet from when it was run by the lamas and their class, the only class from which the lamas were drawn.
Stewart
November 27th, 2008 10:03pm Report this commentDavid Lindsay, you surely are not serious? House of Dalai? Do you actually know what Dalai means? Do you know anything about reincarnation? 'Dalai' is the Mongolian for 'Ocean' - and is used in the sense of 'Ocean of Wisdom'...many Tibetans would actually call the Dalai Lama 'Kundun' or 'The Presence'. Perhaps you have mixed up House of Dalai with House of Saudi?
You, Mr. Lindsay, are the living example of why Comments pages on websites so often make for depressing reading.
michael
November 27th, 2008 10:07pm Report this commentOne thing these posts (which have all the hallmarks of the rabid Chinese nationalist or Western wannabe) and the reaction of the Chinese government tells us: we may use China, we may do business - but the Chinese government is not our friend, not our ally. We have nothing in common with their views. Let's keep it strictly business.
Damian
November 28th, 2008 1:29am Report this commentTibet is our issue. Dalai's followers have rioted and killed us, but the ones EU condemned are us. Put this simply, EU supports a person who aims to hurt us, and we must defend ourselves and our country's sovereignty. It is impossible for us to talk to someone who roots against our survival.
The Europeans must realize that the colonial power days are no more and you can't just bully your way through Asia with your arrogance and racism without consequences. If you insist hurting us and making us your enemies, then your wish will certainly come true.
This is not about the Chinese government. This is about the populous, the people of China and our pride of our country. Tread carefully, Europe, and don't cross us.
Melodie
November 28th, 2008 1:12pm Report this commentThat's funny, these stupide are talking about China, Tibet and Dalai, but you still do ot know what that real meaning, before you write something down, please go to your history teachers. or Library maybe better for you. fools!
By the way, read some things about Corsica and Bretagny also please.
When I was in Europe, I saw how you were fooled, that's interesting people talking as experts in some things they do not know. So what we can see?
One thing: we just want establesh the relationship on RESPECT and TRUST, Do you guys know these words?
Melodie
November 28th, 2008 1:18pm Report this commentHello Micheal, I guess you are French, right? because I could find the Hallmarks exectly as Sarcozy, in his one hand, he took the big contracts from us, in other hand, he is try to split our Country. you are the same: in one hand do business and make money, in another hand, betray your business partners. if your Friends knew your this face?
Ben Gee
November 29th, 2008 12:17am Report this commentTo China, unity is more important than trade or anything else. China's thought is that without unity, China would not be fountioning as a nation. China would not let France or anyone else undermind its unity.
teresopolis
November 29th, 2008 7:14am Report this commentWhat if Chinese leaders meet regularly with IRA or ETA members and provide a platform on world stage for them, do you think that will sit well with UK or Spain?
The western governments are hypocrites to say the least.
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