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Sunday, 30th November 2008

Another poll indicates that the PBR failed politically

James Forsyth 9:57am

This time last week there were anxious conversations in Tory world about how the parliamentary party would react if Labour moved level or ahead in the polls after the PBR. But the PBR has not had the political effect Labour hoped it would. The main story coming out of it has been how bad the public finances are, not the dividing lines that Brown was so desperate to draw.

This morning, Mori—like ICM on Saturday—shows the Tories increasing their poll lead after the PBR. Mori has them 11 points ahead on 43 percent, an eight point increase in their lead.

When you consider that the Tories will probably get a poll boost from the heavy-handed arrest of Damian Green, it does seem that the Tories will go into the New Year comfortably ahead. Certainly, talk of a 2009 election has disappeared almost entirely over the past week.

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TrevorsDen

November 30th, 2008 10:54am Report this comment

This government is pushing up the political daises. It has shuffled off its mortal coil. It is dead, deceased, it is no more. This is a late government.

Jeremy

November 30th, 2008 11:26am Report this comment

Firstly we were expected to believe that Brown is The Brain Of Britain (not), then we were expected to believe that he is Moses leading Britain out of (as opposed to into) recession and towards the Promised Land - the Promised Land, in his case, presumably being that of the totalitarian socialist state. Clearly neither idea has washed well with the public. How about we just believe the truth about him instead? That he is an unelected, deceitful and fourth-rate political hack who - as a consequence, presumably, of early programming - cannot stop himself from erecting the infastructure of his beloved Stasi State.

kinglear

November 30th, 2008 11:35am Report this comment

You say no 2009 poll, but I can't help but think there will be a little something that pops out of the woodwork that will force a no confidence motion. If it were to do with Parliament itself ( and Greengate has the power to deliver this) then there might well be an election before 2010

Richard

November 30th, 2008 11:44am Report this comment

Agree with kinglear. There is a possibility of matters running out of contriol on a number of fronts that will lead to the collapse of the Government and a General Election.

oldtimer

November 30th, 2008 12:05pm Report this comment

We have yet to see the full impact on opinion polls of the Green arrest. The Mumbai massacre has, rightly, pre-occupied the news. That is changing this weekend with, it seems, near universal condemnation of the police action. This story will now run and run - raise viewing figures for The Devils Whore - and cause many extremely awkward questions for the police, HoC officials, the Home Secretary and the Prime Minister.

The Home Secretary came across as distinctly shifty on the Marr programme. Harriet Harmon seemed to be trying to position herself as a defender of the rights of parliament on Sky. I wonder why that might be?

I stand by my comment made on Friday re the PBR and the Green arrest. We are witnessing the apotheosis of Labour`s joined up thinking - Banana Republic meets Police State.

Mark

November 30th, 2008 12:07pm Report this comment

And when in May next year it becomes clear that the recession is not over and that the VAT cut has not worked, what will happen to Labour's support?

Brown has had his bounce. Now he's going back down, probably lower than he was in July/August this year.

mac

November 30th, 2008 12:21pm Report this comment

kinglear,

Defeat in the House for a government with an overall majority is always possible (the Tories lost over the Shops Act in 1986), but there's simply no chance of Labour's ultra-tribal feral whips, marshalled by Brown N at Brown G's bidding will permit the PLP to step out of line over a motion of no confidence by the Oppistion. Not that the PLP's subservient gravy-trainers would want to anyway. Throw away cushioned existence and the reward of a seat in the Lords or on a quango - not likely, is it?

And even if a few Labour MPs were to rebel, there's always Mr Speaker Martin on hand to ignore protocol, precedence and principle in order that his Party gets what it wants.

kinglear

November 30th, 2008 1:25pm Report this comment

mac - I would agree with you on any subject other than Parliamentary supremacy. But even ZanuLiebore trolls might feel a little uncomfortable if eg Brown was shown to have lied - as quite definitely Smith has said she has not.The Marr interview ( didn't you just love Marr talking over Vorderman when she was talking about Greengate?)asks more questions than it answered.

DM

November 30th, 2008 3:52pm Report this comment

Good on Carole Vorderman...she didn't mince her words on the Damian Greene arrest (or the state of the economy.)

chris

November 30th, 2008 6:32pm Report this comment

Are we entering the end game for Labour?

Ian C

December 1st, 2008 12:01pm Report this comment

I notice the voices demanding more from Cameron and co are silent. They seem to have judged it well - and it was difficult. I am more convinced than before, but they just need to hammer home what Osborne did last Monday and make as few hosatges to fortune as possible.

When the time comes they can begin to give us some hope and markets some confidence by announcing the radical re-structuring of incentives inthe tax an benefits system when they come to office. A necessary call so that they have the authority to do some unpopular but necessary benefit reduction when in gov't.

Stephen Green

December 1st, 2008 12:29pm Report this comment

Greengate is a sign of an imminent general election. Brown, a keen ZanuLabourite, is under the influence of Lord of Spin Mandleson and at his instigation, wants to put the frighteners on the Civil Service during the pre-election period,so as to minimise the risk of further leaks showing up the government's duplicity.
Meanwhile Macavity Brown puts Smith in the limelight to take all the flak. The Lord of Spin knows the value of news management and is getting his retaliation in first. His real portfolio is as head of the Ministry Of Truth. We now need a post 1984 Winston to stand up and be counted.
"Leakers of the World you have nothing to lose but your index linked pensions".

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