ComRes has Labour within one point of the Tories

Rob

Anthony Wells has now weighed in any strongly implies it's a rogue. Labour ahead in the South East? Tories ahead in Wales?!

Carol-Ann

I'm searching for my passport, this country has well and truly gone to the dogs. This poll, if true, is the final proof!

Samantha

We also had a poll with a 3 point tory lead before the weekend.

I think there is a danger you are picking polls which suit your politics.

Wilhelm

I love when Gordon Broon smiles.

Its more like a grimace.

Oscar

Samantha - no we didn't have a poll with a 3 point Tory lead before the weekend. We had a poll with a 15 and 11 point Conservative lead (ICM and Ipsos Mori)before and at the weekend. A YouGov poll showing a 4 point lead came out last Monday before the bad headlines for the PBR. ComRes certainly looks like a rogue.

liz Brown

I don't, for one minute believe this Poll - what on earth were those polled taking? And how were the questions posed?

Peter Wilson

Re: Samantha, but we also had 2 polls at the weekend showed large double digit leads for the Tories.

Those at Politicalbetting, largely dismissed that 3 point one, due to the suspicion that it was 'rushed' so it could be the 1st poll out after the PBR.

The one point lead may be accurate, but given that the Tories have maintained a solid over 40% share for nearly a year and generally a healthy lead even though Labour has had positive coverage during the current crisis, I would be surprised if it's true.

Labour's vote share fluctuates depending on the type of coverage it gets, and considering the PBR reaction was negative, the sad case of Baby P and Greengate, I would expect to see the Tories to improve their lead.

Mike, Brighton

Brilliant news! Can Labour please call that election now?

J Finigan

This poll was conducted between Friday and Sunday, when the press coverage of Damien Green's arrest may initially have been interpreted by many as another sign of Conservative dodgy dealings. However as the story has developed over the last few days, it is the Government that is being identified as the bad guys. I confidently predict that the next poll will show the Tories with a ten per cent lead (40% v 30% )and a big improvement for the Liberal Democrats who have fought strongly for the principle of protecting citizen's rights to free speech.

TrevorsDen

The coverage of Greens arrest ought not to have had this effect since cross party protest were quite evident and the BBC for one showed Brown confessing to the same thing.

But even if there were an effect why would it result in a Tory lead in Wales and a Labour lead in the south east?

Why would the overall libdem vote go up but decline in a stronghold like the south west? Why would the lib dem vote go up overall but decline dramatically in Scotland?

This poll of barely 1000 raises lots of questions - most of them for the head of comres.

Best to take a continuing rolling average which gives Tories a 7.5% lead. If Question Time in Baseldon is any guide then the Tory lead is 20%

Roger Parkin

The goverment has now created such a large 'client state' working, or in many cases, not working, in the public sector, another Labour goverment wouldn't surprise me.The rest of us had better start looking for our passports.The country's gone to the dogs.

Jon

Samantha - if you look at the details of the poll it shows you that the Tories have gained very significant ground in Wales (untrue), and lost very significant ground in the South East (untrue), etc.

Sorry, it's a rogue poll.

TrevorsDen

According to a Ghuido commentator ---
New Ipsos Mori Poll shows Labour slump.

An Ipsos Mori Poll due to be released at 14:00 will show Labour support badly hit by the PBR.
Labour - 27%
Conservative - 46%
Liberal Democrats - 18%
Conservative lead 19%

Make of this what you will. It has to be said one of his conspirators got it wrong last time

In terms of statistics another Guido commentator points out -
The chancellor predicts
" 'UK GDP growth of 3/4 % for 2008 with the economy contracting in the second half of the year'

Now, when the chancellor stood up at the dispatch box, three quarters of 2008 GDP growth were known:
Q1 0.3%
Q2 0%
Q3 -0.5%
In order to hit the forecast 0.75%, the economy has to grow at feisty 1% in the fourth quarter."

Huh?? I gather there are statistical reasons to show Darling correct - but it just shows how figures can be manipulated

Nicholas

Samantha, this is no more about politics than the Battle of Britain was about politics. This is about the necessary defeat of an evil regime which if unchecked will put the final nail in the coffin of Britain. This is about survival. Anyone favourably contemplating another 5 years of "New" Labour and/or voting for them must be stark, raving mad.

Bernard from Horsham

Its false Mori have denied it categorically

Cogito Ergosum

I accept that politicos with arts degrees will never understand the mathematice of probability, and the sheer variability of poll results. But I do despair that they do not bother to listen to expert advice.

A blip is a blip is a blip.