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Tuesday, 2nd December 2008

The case for Scottish fiscal autonomy

Fraser Nelson 1:25pm

Those of us in favour of “fiscal autonomy” for Scotland have been sent homewards to think again by the Calman Commission (pdf, here), which looks at the asymmetrical mess which calls itself devolution. But it’s not all bad news. It had been expected to dump on the idea, but is fairly clear about the need to abolish the Barnett Formula which is even denounced by its author, Lord Barnett. This is what the commission has to say:

“With no substantive tax raising power, the Scottish Parliament is funded by a block grant, needed to address a near total vertical fiscal imbalance. Voters are not exposed to tax and spending decisions at the margin, meaning that a degree of political accountability for the taxation which supports spending decisions is missing. The disconnection between revenues and economic performance also means that the incentives to develop growth are secondary rather than immediate. The current arrangements also mean that the Scottish Parliament lacks a degree of autonomy - its scope to influence the size of its budget is limited whilst it is not able to use fiscal measures to influence behaviours.”

This cuts to the heart of the problem of Scottish “government”. Since its inception, the Scotland Office – and its successor, the Scottish “Government” – has had one mission: to justify as big a budget as possible and spend it. For decades, the pride of the Scotland Office has been that public spending per capita in Scotland is about 20% higher than England. This fact was testimony to its budgetary success. This continued under the Tories. At no stage does the government think in terms of value for money. The more things costs, the better it can justify its budget. This has led to a bloated state which squeezes out private enterprise in Scotland. When you can get paid more for being a rail timetable adviser to the Scottish Executive (sic) than you can to be a graduate trainee in a company, you know the whole basis of the economy is shafted.

Result: state spending in Scotland is 54.7 of GDP, higher than any country in the world. This is not only wasteful but harmful. It distorts the Scottish economy and has taken it from Silicon Glen to Mandarin Mountain.

My solution: is to adopt the Basque Country’s setup of “fiscal autonomy” where Scotland’s budget is set at what it can raise in tax. The SNP realises the attractions of a lower-tax model, having seen them work so well in Ireland and the former Soviet Republics. This is the best way of encouraging regeneration that Scotland needs so badly. And yes, you may argue that we’d be just a flag and an army away from independence. But at least Scotland would start to renew itself.

The Calman Commission says it is unpersuaded by this, and points to a needs-based formula like Australia’s where the pie would still be sliced up in London. In my opinion, only full fiscal autonomy will do. And with an SNP administration in Westminster thinking this is a good idea, a Prime Minister Cameron would have an ideal chance to implement this.

P.S. About a decade ago, Jeremy Peat produced a book called the Illustrated Guide to the Scottish Economy which made me realise just what an appalling state Scotland is in. I have tried to update those graphs ever since, and here are some below:
 

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Kardinal Birkutzki

December 2nd, 2008 1:45pm Report this comment

Oh, Lord! Isn't there some way we could just get rid of you totally once and for all?

Rhoda Klapp

December 2nd, 2008 2:02pm Report this comment

And will you all be going back when you get your independence?

Hillary

December 2nd, 2008 2:19pm Report this comment

Well at least some of the rest of the UK is starting to pay attention that it is ONLY in Scotland that we have actively been looking at moving beyond Barnett et al. to a fairer system for all.

The Steel Commission, then Calman, have done more thinking about the nuts and bolts of how a diverse UK fits together and stays together than all the hyperventilations about EVEL, West Lothian or the Scottish Raj (witness the idiotic post above).

UK/England should wake up and contribute seriously to the debate which most don't realise has already started.

Nicol

December 2nd, 2008 2:20pm Report this comment

Nah, we'll be long gone son. Away back to our caves to feed on the carcass' of our beloved sheep!

Alasdair Cameron

December 2nd, 2008 2:29pm Report this comment

Oh Rhoda and Cardinal. Such silly comments. Little Englanders and Scotlanders are always brought out by these blogs. Pathetic.

Alasdair Cameron

December 2nd, 2008 2:33pm Report this comment

More fiscal autnomoy might be good, but comparisons with Ireland are misleading. For a long time Ireland has been a high tax (high income tax at least, low corporation tax) society. This is combined with very poor public services like transport (no rail network to speak of), no public health care and for a long time no free higher education (this schanged in 1998). None of these things would be accepted in Scotland. Ireland also got billions from the EU which Scotland wouldn't

Nicholas

December 2nd, 2008 2:35pm Report this comment

It really adds insult to injury when you consider that the last 12 years of New Labour squeezing the life out of England were only possible because of Scottish socialism.

salieri

December 2nd, 2008 2:41pm Report this comment

You might have added one graph showing a spectacular upward trend in the last decade: Influence in UK Government Ministries & Agencies of Otherwise Unemployable Scotsmen.

But seriously, Fraser, what a revolutionary and inspired - even romantic - notion it would be to have a nation's budget "set at what it can raise in tax". Admittedly in Scotland's case that wouldn't be a terribly large amount of money, but why stop there? Could you not submit your bold plan to Mr. Brown, too? Or would that just seem silly?

David Lindsay

December 2nd, 2008 2:44pm Report this comment

Further devolution will not happen while there is breath in Gordon Brown’s body.

And by the time of the next Election, the energy and broadcasting dogs will be howling their heads off. Yet those are the areas that Calman wants to devolve.

There was never much chance of the Scots voting for further devolution. And by then, the likelihood of that among quite possibly the most risk-averse people on earth will be as good as nil.

Rhoda Klapp

December 2nd, 2008 2:46pm Report this comment

Not a little Englander. British. But unable to be English on the same basis as Scots are to be Scots. No British/English on forms. Scotland must decide for itself whether it wants to be part of the UK, a nation which in my opinion is greater than the sum of its parts and has been the vehicle for the massive influence of Scotland on the World. But Scotland can't make its mind up. And the English do lose patience with the debate. Because we certainly do not have a part in it, except to be allowed to pay. So, go, stay, whatever, just find an equitable solution and stick to it. However, if independence is to be the way, then Scottish people, those whi currently fill in the form British/Scots, should plump for a joyful return to the Celtic Tiger economy, or admit they don't really like Scotland enough to actually live there and apply for English citizenship.

Bocephus

December 2nd, 2008 2:46pm Report this comment

The problem with fiscal autonomy - which I support - is always going to be oil. How much should be allocated to Scotland? All of it? Half of it? Also back in the old days when Banks made money with 2 HO's in Edinburgh would Scotland get all the corporation tax even although most of the profits came from England. How do they work through these issues in Spain?

John MacLeod

December 2nd, 2008 2:57pm Report this comment

Hm. Figures are brilliant things; they can be manipulated to say anything. It would be very interesting to know to what extent these numbers reflect the profits of North Sea gas and oil from Scottish waters, export of whisky, etc. They certainly do not include, for instance, the high number of military installations (like the Trident base at Faslane) that put the mass of the Scottish population in the front line of any nuclear war. (The plum contracts for servicing the submarines, by the way, went to Devonport.) And, of course, there was our disproportionate human contributions to seeing off Kaiser Bill and Hitler.

There is a besetting myth about the Barnett formula: it was devised not to increase public spending Scotland, but to reduce it in increasing convergence with England. And there are good, prosaic reasons why the delivery of public services costs more up here: much of Scotland is very sparsely populated, and it costs more to heat and light schools, hospitals and so on at northern latitudes. Roll on independence.

Rhoda Klapp

December 2nd, 2008 3:16pm Report this comment

Y'see, Mr MacLeod, this is all special pleading. There are military bases all over. Most of England's regions could produce a list of grievances, money flowing this way or that. Do you think England wouldn't be bombed in as nuclear war? There are good arguments to be made here, but yours are not amongst them. Go, or stay. You'll be fine. I just don't wanna be lectured by chippy Scots any more.

Jask

December 2nd, 2008 3:20pm Report this comment

John MacLeod; As you say, Roll on independence ... for England

Alfred T Mahan

December 2nd, 2008 3:29pm Report this comment

'State spending in Scotland is 54.7 of GDP, higher than any country in the world.'

What, even North Korea?

sugar free

December 2nd, 2008 3:30pm Report this comment

Rhoda - As an Englishman myself, i feel slightly concerned that someone of your ignorance is claiming to be a spokesperson for England. Telling people to 'go home' has no place in this debate. I do have issues with the West Lothian question, but the anti-Scottishness thrown Brown's way is out of order. It's not his nationality which is an issue for me, it's the fact he is doing his best to ruin the whole of the UK. Furthermore, Fraser is one of the most effective critics of said failing government, doing his best to save scotland, northern ireland, wales AND england from disaster... considering your comment, I'm surprised you are even able to read his celtic observations!

Aless Bieri

December 2nd, 2008 3:35pm Report this comment

The Barnet Formula needs to be scrapped as soon as possible.

Any formula which sees top-up fees as an advantage to England which must be matched with a Grant from Westminster to Scotland is clearly a flawed idea.

Why not just peg their grant from Westminster at the same amount spent on the English?

Wilhelm

December 2nd, 2008 3:37pm Report this comment

The only people who are interested in saving this tired old marriage between Scotalnd and England is the liebouur party.

Its the old story, Scotland doesnt need the liebour party but the liebour party sure needs Scotland to win power in England, their ultimate prize.

Devolution is a mess, thats a given. Liebour supported devoulution to stop the SNP not because they truly wanted devoulution so they were hiding a bad motive behind a good one.

But what goes around comes around, the Scots had to put up with Magarat Thatcher and the tories for 18 years, which they didnt elect, and now the English have to put up with dour Gordon Broon and the Glasgow liebour mafia which they didnt elect, the nutty union between England and Scotland is to blame for that.

England is a right of centre country.
Scotland is a left of centre country.

Simple solution, independence for both countries, problem solved.

And England can keep train wreck Gordon Broon, Scotland doesnt want him either.

Wilhelm

December 2nd, 2008 3:48pm Report this comment

The Glasgow liebour mafia which is inherently Irish hates Scots independence because they want to run England. If I was English I would have a massive resentment that the Scots are running my country England.

With independence for both countries, the rabid nutty unionist liebour party is sunk.

mac

December 2nd, 2008 3:56pm Report this comment

Alasdair Cameron.

Admirably cool-head analysis but then my sympathy evaporates when up pops the whiny Little Scotlandism of Mr MacLeod. Try telling the people of Plymouth its dockyard has been equitably treated by G. Brown (that patriotic Briton whose constituency is right next door to Rosyth, of course).

By all means close Faslane and remove plucky, braveheart Scotland from 'the nuclear front line', Mr MacLeod, but give up the lucrative carrier building work to English yards and, while you're about it, close Leuchars, Lossiemouth and Kinloss too. I'm sure you'll be able to reassure the good folk of NE Fife and the Moray shore that 'Scottish oil' will soon provide alternative support for their local economies.

Wilhelm

December 2nd, 2008 4:04pm Report this comment

Hmmmm. now let me see.

Gordon Broon = born in Glasgow Govan.
Shifty Alistair Darling = Scots.
John Reid = Glasgow thug and chav.
Speaker Gorbals Mick Martin = Glasgow
wee Douglas Alexander = Glasgow.
Jim O'Morphy, Scots secretary = Glasgow thug chav.

Its a rogues galllery, bit like the Nuremberg Trials

Rhoda Klapp

December 2nd, 2008 4:16pm Report this comment

sugar free, I didn't mention Brown. I didn't use the words 'go home'. I certainly do not claim to speak for England, or anyone save myself and then sometimes tongue-in-cheek. I think I expressed that I am on the whole pro-union. The point I evidently failed to make is that it is irksome for 'expat' Scots to espouse independence if they do not intend to take full advantage of it by residence. No problem with a unionist Scot living anywhere they like. Some problem with somebody who wishes to break up the union but reserves the right to live in England. And 'go home' is not an unreasonable response to anyone who finds his adopted country does not compare with the sainted memory, culture and climate of his native soil.

Jane

December 2nd, 2008 4:34pm Report this comment

I have had a quick glance at the report although it will require further study before making other than broad comments. The introductory section was helpful in reminding me of the history of devolved government and the powers that are devolved. I found the latest poll on the model of government desired by the people of Scotland very interesting. The vast majority preferred remaining in the union with their own parliament. They also wanted taxation to be devolved. This seems eminently sensible to me as there is no political accountability for spending within the Scottish Parliament. I will need to read further to understand this in detail. The report also states that the future prosperity of Scotland is within the economic union of the UK.

Like others, the Barnett Formula seems no longer relevant and the report acknowledges this anomaly. In my bopinion, Scotland should be treated the same as other regions of the UK which would still ensure that social factors which prevail (mortality rates for heart disease etc) would be met.

I have lived in Scotland and share Fraser's view that value for money in terms of public spending is a concept not widely used.

Nicholas

December 2nd, 2008 5:20pm Report this comment

Strange how people who attempt to stick up for England in this debate become "Little Englanders".

The liberal left really have done a piece of work on perceptions in these isles.

As for "sugar free" I could not see where Rhoda had claimed to be a "spokesperson for England" or that she had told anyone to go home. She was expressing an entitled opinion and does not deserve the approbation of "ignorance" for doing so.

Ian C

December 2nd, 2008 5:34pm Report this comment

The case for fiscal autonomy is only there if there is a case for the Parliament. There is only a case for the Parliament if there is fiscal autonomy. Those who have decided there is a case for a bunch of do nothings to have an expensive building and unnecessarily bloat the state bureaucracy in the name of some form of recognition of the separate administartive requirements is beyond me and palin example of having put the cart before the horse.

And I cannot see what value they have added as indicated by Fraser's graphs.

I, as one England inhabiting Scot will not be going back and would vote for them to go and try it on their own - as the quickest means of getting my fellow Scots to give the idea up and to get them back into the real world the rest of us inhabit.

Chris Clark

December 2nd, 2008 5:54pm Report this comment

So you want to increase the accountability of MSPs, asking them to raise funds direct from their electorate rather than from the Treasury, so as to put a curb on their prolificacy?

I think this sounds rather like giving a gun to a hoody so he thinks twice before mugging someone – just in case someone gets shot.

Ben

December 2nd, 2008 6:11pm Report this comment

Dear Fraser, I'm an English person working in the Scottish NHS. I know that the Barnett formula is due for a rethink, but knocking our 20% is probably impossible politically, due to the practical consequences to patients etc. Even if you phased it in, changed the health economy to more private input etc etc it would still take decades. Scotland's tax raising potential is limited, so far as I can see, to put it politely. So, agreed it's unfair on my fellow Englishmen, but I doubt that your alternative would ever be practical. Dave (Cameron is a Scots name, no?) says this as it plays well with his fans in the south, understandably. It's about as likely as Sean Connery moving to Dundee in reality. Why do you want fiscal independence anyway?

D MCGREGOR

December 2nd, 2008 6:19pm Report this comment

Bring it on! We'll be better off on the VAT on whisky , fags and deep fried Mars Bars alone.

D MCGREGOR

December 2nd, 2008 6:25pm Report this comment

Seriously though , any attempt to segregate all taxes raised and due to Scotland and somehow reapportion them is doomed to failure as unfairness will be perceived by all sides. This is a classic divide and rule manoeuvre by Labour who want Scotland back in its pen.

Wilhelm

December 2nd, 2008 6:34pm Report this comment

Ben asks

''Why do you want fiscal independence anyway?''

You might as well ask why does a child want to move out of his parents house and live on his own ? Because he wants to be the master of his own destiny.

Do the English like being governed from Brussels ?

John

December 2nd, 2008 7:41pm Report this comment

Take a deep breath England and relax.

Firstly wanting to improve your own country in your own way is all free people's right.

If we in Scotland are costing too much we should be taxed more. Nobody is entitled to a free lunch.

One of the current problems is the Labour parties stranglehold on central Scotland. Breeding grounds for poverty make loyal Labour voters.

Better managed smaller government, with less public sector union types from the labour party.

We can then be neighbours with common interests and culture rather than financially strained Landlord and unhappy Tenant

John

December 2nd, 2008 7:55pm Report this comment

With reference to the public spending and rural areas I am sure you will find there are certain ommissions from the data being supplied.

Firstly the vast amount of public spending is done in the central belt rather than the highlands and they are no more rural than Newcastle. The rural argument is false.

Secondly the amount of central government / public spending / military spending / civil service allocated to Scotland on the G.E.R.S report each year is flawed and based on population percentages rather than actual allocated funds. Due to the very small number of people in Scotland in comparison this causes figures such as the graph to show massive increases when labour keep spending for no reason.

As a country we need to do more to improve the economy and the management of our ecomony requires different stimulas to that of England.

And we must all stay our of the European Union. After 300 years of civil servants sitting on there lazy backsides collecting big pay packets and delivering nothing I have had enough of centralised big government.

hadrian

December 2nd, 2008 8:41pm Report this comment

I'd far rather listen to Fraser Nelson any day than that twisted nitwit, John MacLeod. However I have to say 'Amen' to Fraser's fiscal concept- it's what I have been convinced of for years. A bit of autonomy and reality will bring greater responsibility- in the long run- than continued begging-bowl dependency.
That said, I think the U.K. is a fine institution- though hardly a sacrosanct one nor an absolute! However when you consider our years of shared history, trade, intermarriage, Protestant heritage, and -to a lesser degree, our language ( despite the injustices perpetrated upon our Celtic tongues, only now being redressed as far as possible and maybe too late) then one does not after all this, lightly cede all those benefits.
Still, a tightened up Scottish Parliament ( with proper review chamber) wouldn't be the end of the world!
As for silly petty hatreds between Scots and Saxons, half these are artificially generated and in the real world righty ignored! I never holiday anywhere else but England, Wales or Cornwall!
So once again, Fraser- good on ye, laddie!!

hadrian

December 2nd, 2008 8:45pm Report this comment

Incidentally, that entertaining list of Scots in government is anything but comprehensive but have you considered this? The Tories too have their fair share of jocks!

Scunnert

December 2nd, 2008 10:23pm Report this comment

Think of all the benefits that accrue to England from its possession of Scotland. Having the saviour of civilization, Flash Gordon, as your leader gives the English bragging rights denied to lesser nations. This alone is worth the few quid extra paid to Scotland.

hadrian

December 2nd, 2008 11:36pm Report this comment

No, No, Scunnert! Their major benefit from the Union is having Fraser Nelson, NOT Broon. But we want Fraser back..he can still write for UK newspapers in our global, cosy world anyway.

Fraser Nelson

December 2nd, 2008 11:55pm Report this comment

Scunnert, Scots used to say "it's not a subdisy, it's a consultancy fee". But I suspect that won't wash now. England will be asking for a rather large refund.

David McEwan Hill

December 3rd, 2008 12:05am Report this comment

I find the degree of downright ignorance paraded on this topic deeply dispiriting. Somehow or other Scots wanting to run Scotland is considered unacceptable or weird. It is as well that the average Scot does not accord the same level of vitriol to the many fine English people who come to live aming us - and in increasing numbers - as some of the bampots writing here direct their poison against Scots. The English immigrants into Scotland vote for Scottish independence in just as large a proportion as do the native scots.
Figures can be manipulated to mean anything as somebody has already pointed out but here's a few statistics that some people here should try to understand.
Benefit payments per head are highest in the UK in Northern England.
The per capita budget deficit in Scotland is considerably lower per head than the per capita UK deficit and has been so for most of the last 50 years. With UK economy dominated in recent years by London and it penchant for inventing non existent money to lend and buying and selling debt as an asset and the inevitable collapse of this nonsense I cannot see where the justification for the vainglorious boasting that disfigures this debate comes from. Even odder is the concept,much loved by timid unionists that Scotland is a beggar nation and we should all vote for more of the same. I dfon't usually agree with alot of frser's musings but this time I have to say his thoughful piece is woth a second look.

Rhoda Klapp

December 3rd, 2008 8:32am Report this comment

David McEwan Hill, please justify your statements by selecting some quotes from the previous comments, becasue I can't see the barmpots, leaving aside those who compound Scottishness with Scottish Labour, which would be a partisan political position irrelevant to the issue. Quotes to prove oyur case, or a straw man it is.

Jack

December 3rd, 2008 9:35am Report this comment

Just one of the many big irritations to sort out. With Scotland having its own fiscal autonomy, would English service personnel be paid and taxed by Scotland whilst based there? and vice versa for Scottish personnel.

John

December 3rd, 2008 11:39am Report this comment

Hillary
December 2nd, 2008 2:19pm
"Well at least some of the rest of the UK is starting to pay attention that it is ONLY in Scotland that we have actively been looking at moving beyond Barnett et al. to a fairer system for all.
UK/England should wake up"

Hillary, you are completely wrong(and the UK is not an interchangeable term with England, by the way, whatever Scottish sources might have told you)

It seems you have been deceived by the huge effort the British state has put into supressing English objections and depicting us as extremists etc when they are happy to favour Scottish particularism .
There are many in England who are very interested in this debate and are very aggrieved at the bias of the British establishment against England.

England has been the increasing victim of an all pervading bias both in funding (Barnett) and in representation (we don't have any as such. The British parliament is not an English parliament and is the central engine of unrelening prejudice against us). Basically the British state and the British political class would like to eradicate England from the pages of history. We are awkward, we wont shut up and we don't want to be regionalised because it is an alien concept in English political thought and history. In the 300 years of the Union Scotland has never had to put up with such bias.

As regards fiscal independence, most people in England would probably support the idea of England nad Scotland being fiscally separateie a higher percentage than in Scotland. It is not just Barnett which even the British political class are now publicly accepting as unsustainable, it is the whole issue of self rule.

Personally, speaking from England I would be happy to settle for at least partial fiscal independence and a limited degree of "British" funding on a needs basis for all the four countries of the UK. This would entail continuing negotiations between the four countries for British funding. Other than that England would now be represented whats new?

However,British politicians have clearly demonstrated they cannot be trusted to treat England fairly and so England also needs her own parliament, government, ministers, civil service as well as budget and tax raising powers.
ie what Scotland already has or is going to get.

I think the Union would survive this transition quite well. It would still be defence, foreign policy and customs union.
The Calman Commission is just one of the stages of the debate.It is useful in that it has moved the isuue along a few stages. It was only a couple of years ago that all discussion of such things was outside the pale!

Scottish Conservative

December 3rd, 2008 12:27pm Report this comment

Of course until now you, Mr. Nelson, have always included the GERS element in your argument, specifically that the GERS figures indicate that Scotland is in receipt of a subsidy per se, with Scotlands higher public expenditure bill paid for by English taxes. Given that you have quoted these GERS figures as showing how unfair Barnett is to England I think it is interesting that you have not quoted the most recent figures. That wouldnt happen to be because they showed a 2006-07 Scottish surplus of £800 millin in a year with a £30 billion plus UK deficit? Surely in the name of consistency you should include these figures as you have done in the past when writing in this area? Now however we see you focus your evidence on the other statistics in the tables above. If I wasnt such a cynic Id almost think youd dropped the new GERS figures because that evidence didnt fit your argument ;-)

David McEwan Hill

December 4th, 2008 12:24am Report this comment

Scottish Conservative.
Well said!

Craig H

December 4th, 2008 11:14am Report this comment

There are two advantages to fiscal autonomy:

1. encourages Scottish Government to increase tax revenues and introduce state efficiencies
2. stops the English mumping their gums about subsidy junkies

Makes sense to me.

The only disadvantage to fiscal autonomy would be if Scotland really is a basket case and needs higher public spending than EW&NI. I'm not convinced that is the case (having seen statistics arguing either way) but, say for arguments sake it is, surely improving Scotland's performance should be a priority? Hence, fiscal autonomy becomes the answer to this too!

I find the prospect of a Scottish Government in full control of tax and revenues, sending a block grant to a UK Government for shared services like defence, an attractive prospect. Then we would have nothing to argue about, except the size of this grant...

dont like the whinging rich

December 7th, 2008 11:47am Report this comment

Golly gosh ,I agree with a Tory!

No parliament should spend money without responsibility for raising it.

Just as long as the oil revenues go to the Edinburgh exchequer,where they belong, then fine.

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