Election timing

Ian C

Brown has to try to retain the option for calling an election in 2009 - all gov'ts try to go 4 to 4.5 yrs. Until the rogue polls stop being as volatile as the stockmarket, no one is going to get a clear idea of their state.

Dan

Your assertion is correct: Darling's prediction that we will be out of recession by mid-2009 is pure fantasy. A continued relentless rise in unemployment, more negative growth and house price falls will rip the credibility of the PBR to shreds. We may even have deflation by then and 'quantitative easing'.
We could then expect another 'election bribe' in autumn 2009, with ever more terrifying borrowing figures and immense future tax increases. By then, the public will have well and truly recognised the extent of Labour's failure and they will be dead men walking. They will literally be annihilated in a 2010 election.
Therefore, I am convinced that a Mandelson-inspired 'cut and run' operation will win the day and an election will be called in mid 2009 based on a disingenuous 'let us finish the job' message'. Labour will assume, as always, that the British people are stupid.
Heaven help us if this bunch of cynical, calculating incompetents pull this off.

strapworld

Brown has to go as early as possible. I still consider january/ february his best option. Christmas and New Year Festivities over. He will, through Mandleson and his attack dogs, create a massive row with the conservatives - over the economy and go to the country on a back me or sack me agenda.

Hopefully the country will not fall for it and sack him!

Somehow I think he will win!

I am afraid Cameron is no fighter, this week has shown that. Weak weak weak. Any front bench with Letwin, Maude etc on it can never be described as fighters!

oldtimer

You say:
"Certainly, the Tories would prefer to fight in 2010. By then the crisis phase will have passed and the extent of Brown’s economic mismanagement will be clearer."

What makes you so confident that the crisis phase will be over by 2010? Recessions leave scars. Deep recessions leave deep scars.

The Chancellor`s prediction seems to have been worked out on nothing more than the back of an envelope in order to massage the government`s future debt numbers.

In my view the sooner an election is called the better. It would provide the electorate with the opportunity to eject Brown and co before they do even more damage to the economy. They are making stupid mistakes. Indeed a "do nothing" policy is better than doing something that makes things worse - such as the VAT reduction. It would have been more sensible not to forgo the £12bn now lost from VAT receipts, alternatively to have put it directly into peoples pockets where they could decide how to make use of it.

As for Brown`s bungling incompetence - that is already widely understood by those who will be bothered to vote.

Gordon Musgo

If they were a proper opposition, they'd be raring to go ANY TIME the thing is called. But they aren't. Anyhow, the world economy is not going to deliver an environment for a UK recovery ahead of the pack, so this is really just another dose of idle speculation. Gordon will wait until the last minute, absent some EVENT. Myt prediction is that the Spec will continue to run this speculative claptrap about an election right up to the day when the last minute is the only option left. Give it a rest whydoncha?

Trumpeter Lanfried

The important thing is that the Tories go into the election with an unequivocal commitment to reduce public spending and public sector pensions. No more fudge. This is serious.

Nicholas

I simply cannot understand why Brown appears to hold the position in the polls that he does.

Then, on the BBC News website, amongst all the headlines furore over the Damien Green incident I read the headline: "David Cameron says Green arrest is worrying". Oh, dear.

JimBob

"Certainly, the Tories would prefer to fight in 2010. By then the crisis phase will have passed and the extent of Brown’s economic mismanagement will be clearer."

Its crystal clear right now. The Tories just aren't saying it loud enough.

teledu

Even if they wait 'til 2010, zaNuLabour will still be playing the "give us time to finish the job" card; most will have forgotten a PBR assessment from 12+ months before.
The BBC, Daily Mirror, Sun, Sky etc. won't keep referring back to economic forecasts made in November 2008 and reminding their audience that it's all gone tits up. Will they?

Prodicus

Snap election, earlier rather than later, for sure. Look at the auguries: Queen's Speech Lite; amazing 24-day Christmas break to minimise 'events' while Mandelson prepares Brown's army for a sudden offensive.

Oldtimer: **By (2010) the crisis phase will have passed and the extent of Brown’s economic mismanagement will be clearer.**

That won't matter to Brown if he gets a renewed mandate in 2009. He will then be immovable – and might even see Cameron off. (Imagine the gruesome smile – it would be absolutely sickening.) He will have got his longed-for personal mandate as PM, than which nothing - absolutely nothing - is more important to him. Never forget that his is a one-item agenda: absolute power for Gordon Brown at any cost and for as long as possible.

I have always bet on an early 2009 election. I just didn't expect the Tories to be handing it to him, with a battery of excellent weapons at their disposal but a half-arsed cabinet standing behind Cameron, without a clue how to use them.

Cry Tory and let slip the Foxes, Clarkes and Davises of war, or give Brown another four years and God save England or sauve qui peut.

Stop being so bloody nice, Cameron. People are in pain as this man sneers at the constitution and wrecks our society and our economy out of sheer undilted vanity. Next, the Euro?

Take your gloves off now, Dave, before it's too late and there’s Rockall left to save.

Anthony

Excellent analysis, James. I would add, too, that Mandelson, who is now the de facto PM, always had an election rule of thumb going at least one year before the term had to be up simply because that nucleus of Blair, Campbell and Mandy always thought it dangerous to be boxed in, because if disaster strikes then, you've no stalling manouevres available.

I don't see why he would change that strategy, it's tried and tested.

The only stumbling block that I can see to a spring 2009 poll is that the economic hurricane has only just made landfall. It is next spring that it will really reak its worst visible damage in terms of job losses and so on - the damage the public will most notice.

New Labour will have priced that in, though. That said, I'd probably better to go to the polls while people still have some of that redundancy cheque in the bank.

The blueprint for a spring 2009 election was set out in the PBR and the Queen's speech. With Brown having lost so much faith in himself he's had to bring back Mandy, it's Mandy's blueprint, it's Mandy's election, it all points to spring 2009.

Verity

No to a snap election because David Cameron couldn't handle the fleetness of foot that would be required. Which means he couldn't handle a short, sharp fight. He prefers to go around with a non-commital wink and a nod. He must have the driest powder in the history of politics.

The Tories will not win an election with him as Leader. No one actually likes him. No one thinks, "He thinks like me!" No one knows what he thinks, if anything. Barring anything John Prescott ever said, Cameron's promise to match the socialists' spending was the most stupid remark I've ever heard out of the mouth of any politician. And I include Dan Quayle in that assessment.

People have not warmed to Cameron. He has made no effort to engage them other than insultingly manufactured photo ops that spoke down to them.

He has to go.

Laughing Larry

Verity is your real name Polly?

Polly put the kettle on!

I don't know the Tuscan version.

Is it Polly-oh-so-wealthy?

Alexis

Verity ... we are all aware that you hate David Cameron

Give it a break though, it's getting a little boring. Change the story will you?

Travis Bickle

Verity . Stop Press

Nobody likes Cameron , perhaps, but very few hate him as much as a large number in this country detest Brown.

TGF UKIP

Strapworld has it dead right, and Alexis it's not Verity who needs to change her story it's Cameron who needs to change his by starting to talk and act like a conservative for a change.

As I've posted previously, if the Tories do want to avoid going in early 2009, then they really do need to start talking about it day in and day out and, I would recommend, by getting the phrase "scurrying to the polls" implanted in people minds via constant repetition. "Scurrying" should become as synonymous with Brown as it does with rats and cockroaches.

Fat chance of that ever happening though. It's like watching scrap yard rottweilers against pet parlour poodles.

James Forsyth

TGF, I thought your word of choice was scuttle? As ever, James

Forlornehope

If this is to be an L shaped depression, the next election may be one to lose.

The danger for the Tories is that they get in and then are tarred for another generation as the party that made all "the Cuts". For those who can remember, things were bad when Ted Heath won but were absolutely broken when Margaret took a grip. It may need to get much worse before it can be fixed.

George Laird

Dear All

Summer 2009!

This is my bet for when Brown will go!

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

Verity

Travis Bickle - You are right in one sense, but - and I may be wrong - I don't think anyone ever won an election by being passively negative. One has to fight to win, and David Cameron is not a fighter. He's a discusser. He's a meeting-holder.

In the photo above, Gordon Brown's hand makes me sick. Look at it. That strange depression in the palm. That gruesome thumb. Those long, thin fingers. It's weird.

The Laughing Cavalier

I wonder if we will have an election at all. The Labour party, old, or, especially, new, of the last eleven and half years has scareely shown much respect for democracy. I can hear it now "No time for an amateur ... distractions of a General Election in times of difficulty ... external threat, all America's fault ... experienced hand on the tiller ..." What makes you think Brown will call an election. With politicised police and civil services desperate to hang on to their jobs he might just try to rule by virtune of the Civil Contingencies (AKA Enabling) Act.

TGF UKIP

James, you're dead right, of course "scuttle" it is. Mice scurry and rats, cockroaches and Browns scuttle. Thanks for the correction and what a prat I am (and I'll take all the "Hear, hears" for granted!)

Athesius the Facilitator

Mr/Mrs Verity has every right to dislike Cameron but he/she should take into account that he is a brilliant performer at the dispatch box and he does resonate with many voters.

I would love to see him firm up a bit and we are seeing some signs of that now.

Osborne has made a clear statement on the euro and Cameron is getting the Ulster Unionists back on board. He is starting to get a bit more respect from the TV media and the Sun Newspaper has started to give him a bit of decent coverage. He still has a bit to do to win the BBC however as they are full of left wingers.

The "toff" jape should not be allowed to stick and Blairs, Fiennes college, background should be enough to put that rubbish to bed.

So if you are a Tory like you say you are Verity you should give him a chance or revert back to your alter-ego. Derek Draper.

Tiberius

Alexis; it is one of the more noteworthy traits of the anti-Cameron brigade that they persistently fail to acknowledge that he has taken the party from 33% in the polls, and destined to lose in perpetuity, to over 40% and expecting a working majority. The reflexive dissing of the Cameroons is, I agree, rather tedious to have to keep reading.

Election in 2009? It's more a theme those who like to convince themselves that the Tories would be caught flat-footed if Brown went for it, than a reasoned argument. Brown is deluded, so nothing can be ruled out, but I would bet the rate of redundancies will shoot up after the Christmas holidays, this being only one aspect of the decline in the economy.

Brown is more likely to lose the next election than not whenever it is held. His cowardice is likely, therefore, to drive him to waiting for the full term to May 2010.

Verity

Athesius the Facilitator I have never heard of anyone reverting forward. And I have no idea what negative baggage hangs around Derek Draper's name.

Yes, Cameron lands an occasional punch on Brown, but occasionally being clever at the Dispatch Box doesn't equate to relating to the average Brit. He is completely unconnected to us, which is why he pulls embarrassing stunts like posing with an obviously new and unused paint brush held up against a public wall to stamp out to send some message about grafitt. And saying that people shouldn't fear hoodies. People who live in neighbourhoods with feral hoodies fear them for good reason. His assumption that he knows better than they do is patronising. He makes these terrible faux pas all the time.

This, plus, the electorate don't seem to like him. They don't relate to him and he doesn't relate to them. This doesn't make a good leader.

Gordon Musgo

A the F, what Cameron are you talking about, I don't recognise him from the description. What care I how much this one appeals to the left-wing bien-pensants at the Beeb? Verity has a clear point. If the tories really believe it is worth compromising your principles to please everybody and gain power for its own sake, then they don't deserve a vote. Simple. Some people believe power is an end in itself. I don't think Verity is amongst them. If you don't read that in what she writes here, what DO you read?

Susan Hill

March. I`ve been saying it here for ages. They`ll call an election for March.And yes, on the 'trust us - we`ve gone so far but we need a mandate to finish the job.'
Hasn`t Cameron woken up yet or is he still wandering round that new shopping mall ?

mac

@ strapworld:

Agree the tactics, but the attack dogs' target may not be limited to a manufactured spat over the economy.

Mandelson has sought to impale Osborne and Green. Labour will continue to try to skewer individual Tories in the hope of gaining purchase with an electorate they hope to con, again.

Brown is nasty and unprincipled, and his re-importation of the gutter-dwelling Mandelson and Campbell has polluted British political life even further. These people always plays the man, not the policy ball. sadly, this is not a narrative which the MSM is willing to accept.

Clearly, Cameron's approach is designed to avoid accusations of the Tories being the 'nasty party' or sleaze-ridden, but in doing so they're giving Mandelson's snapper-pack a free ride at present . . .

Max Kaye

I agree that Cameron & Co are not political warriors of Maggie's stature but, as ever, it's up to the government of the day to lose the next election.

Forget the polls - there is only one poll that counts and that's the one on election day. Brown is so loathed by the public that a pig's head on a stick would beat him.

Roll on the election.

Verity

What the hell is Lord Rumba of Rio doing at the heart of the British government? He was twice dismissed from the Government for financial malfeasance. He hasn't been elected by anyone to anything since then. Why did Gordon Brown invite Lord Snake Hips to slither under the door of No 10? How needy and vicious is the repulsive Brown that he has invited this grimy individual into the heart of our politics?

Alfred T Mahan

TGF UKIP - please lay off poodles. They are noble, handsome, fearless and intelligent creatures totally undeserving of your disparaging insinuations.

Toodle-pip.

Athesius the Facilitator

G Mungo. I never described Cameron. I simply said he was brilliant at the dispatch box, (statement, not a description) . And his queens speech address wins that point.

As for compromising principles then Verity would have to vote for a Trappist Monk as no politician since the first meeting on the first day of the first ever Roman senate have we had a politician who hasn't compromised his principles. The Labour lobby fodder have been compromising for 11 years.

However I do have some sympathy with what Verity is saying about Cameron but I think he is firming up a bit and I live in hope that we may have a decent if not brilliant future leader. But principled politician. Give us all a break please.

Verity you chided me for saying "revert back" I checked the dictionary. I can use "revert back" as it means "return to" as well as "reverse". But I don't deal in semantics so if you and G Mungo want to be right you can be.

quadratus

Why did the posts cease at 7.16p.m. Did someone ask an embarassing question?

Verity

A the F - Reverting to your point, OK.

Stewart

I believe there will be an election in the late spring, probably May. The government will want the 'let us finish the job, tough times still lie ahead, no time for a novice, etc' argument. If Cameron and his team have any political nous they will be on constant election alert from now on. There can be no excuses for being caught napping. If the Conservatives win the election Cameron's first priority should be rooting out the Labour diehards at the top of the police and civil service. After that, he needs to tear down the BBC or somehow let it tear itself apart. The details of how this happens will be worked out by better qualified people than I but what I do know is that this must happen to help prevent a repeat of the last 11 years. Only once these projects are underway can he and his team begin to undo some of the damage labour has done to the country, socially, morally, economically and to its security.