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Monday, 8th December 2008

Convincing the creditors

Peter Hoskin 9:00am

The dangers of mounting national debt are spelt out clearly and persuasively by Frank Field in an article for today's Guardian.  Well worth reading the whole thing, but the bottom line is that desperate times may call for desperate measures:

"If the debt can't be sold, it will be impossible for the government to continue. The only options then will be to print money, with all the dangers for a country of going along with such a policy; or for the political parties to come together - in a national government - to try to convince the gilt market that the country is serious about bringing under control the gap between projected government expenditure and its falling tax revenue base.

It is crucial that we begin to plan for this scenario for, once in this totally uncharted territory, we may not then have that long to convince the markets that Britain's political class really means business in trying to get the nation's accounts into some sort of order. If we fail to convince at this point, then the outlook for the country is truly unimaginable."

While I'm not completely convinced by the idea of a national government - for starters, can anyone imagine Gordon Brown ceding even the slightest morsel of power to opposition politicians? - Field's central point still stands.  So far as our economy's concerned, it's crucially important that investors are convinced of the government's ability, and willingness, to pay back all that debt.  Problem is, Brown doesn't exactly have a great track record on that front, and the optimistic forecasts in the PBR suggest that the government isn't facing up to the magnitude of what lies ahead.  It's here that the Tories will hope their Office for Budget Responsibility counts for something, although the question remains of whether that's enough.  Any thoughts, CoffeeHousers?

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kinglear

December 8th, 2008 9:22am Report this comment

The answers obvious - get rid of Brown and we should be all right.

Hereford

December 8th, 2008 9:29am Report this comment

I may sound paranoid, but I expected this. What might come next? Labour declare a national emergency, suspend normal parliamentary rules for maximum length of term for government and we slide smoothly into a single party state maybe?

strapworld

December 8th, 2008 9:45am Report this comment

Step forward David Davis, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Prime Minister of the first National Government since the second world war.

Of course Brown would have to step down. He would have no option. Then we really would have a cabinet of all the talents. Not many of the present shower would be there but, events would ensure that they would have NO alternative. The International Bankers would insist.

David Davis would be the ideal choice, as they would not go for a leader of a party. They would have to have an independent person and he has proved his independence.

Andy Leeds

December 8th, 2008 9:56am Report this comment

Brown's figures in the last PBR were basically knitted porridge. Everyone could see that save Brown and Darling. Twas ever thus.

TrevorsDen

December 8th, 2008 10:07am Report this comment

In Word War 2 there was no chance of a national government under Chamberlain.

Ergo - Fields suggestion can be aimed at the removal of only one man ...

Pity I'm not clever enough to be a political journalist.

HFC

December 8th, 2008 10:13am Report this comment

Peter, If you have difficulty imaging a national governmemt with Brown, let's try to imagine a national goverment after Nulab ditch him. And Darling. And Smith...

TrevorsDen

December 8th, 2008 10:22am Report this comment

BTW - all official measures based on '% of GDP' will no doubt soon be junked as the GDP is about to go down the toilet.

Unless of course there is going to be a revised way to measure it ...

True Bred Pomponian

December 8th, 2008 10:39am Report this comment

Any national government with Brown involved hosing money over the public sector like a drunken sailor on shore leave would not have the slightest credibility with the markets. A change of government is the only way forward. Is this Frank Field's desperate last hope of staying in government?

mark c

December 8th, 2008 10:52am Report this comment

and dont forget traditions here ... dont labour regimes usualy ome to an end with an IMF party ?

DavefromLuton

December 8th, 2008 10:59am Report this comment

At what point should I really start to worry?
I have my pension and some savings and always thought I was reasonably well set up to see me through.
However if the value of the pound continues to fall dramatically and the Government print s more money could we reach a situation like pre-war Germany or even current Zimbabwe?
Should I sell everything and convert to gold - or what else.

Forlornehope

December 8th, 2008 11:01am Report this comment

It is difficult to imagine a national government even with a complete change at the top. Jack Straw as PM with Ken Clarke back as chancellor might have some credibility, but I doubt it.

The graver concern is whether an incoming Conservative administration would have sufficient credibility. There is little about the Cameroons to suggest that they are ready for a really difficult task. With the Broons failing and an unblooded alternative, things are beginning to look just a little bit serious.

Oor Willie

December 8th, 2008 11:05am Report this comment

Looking for enlightenment.

At the moment who authorises "the printing of (extra) money? Is it the independent B of E or has that job been taken away from it? Is it the PM ? Is it after a serious debate in the H of C and needs a two-thirds majority of the House?
OK I know the last one isn't a runner....

liz Brown

December 8th, 2008 11:11am Report this comment

We are doomed............rebellion NOW

PeterH

December 8th, 2008 11:30am Report this comment

Using the Govt's figures we will be borrowing an extra £300bn over the next few years. If the Govt manages to issue gilts at 4% for this amount the interest bill alone will cost £600 per annum for every household in the UK. If the Govt is out by 50% (very possible given its recent forecasting record & the gilt market decides 8% is a more reasonable rate for a bankrupt country this will cost every household nearly £1500 per annum to service the extra interest alone, newer mind pay the principal off.

David Parker

December 8th, 2008 11:39am Report this comment

So long as Brown believes that he has even the slightest chance of winning (and remember, we are not dealing here with a sane and balanced human being, but a delusional egomaniac) he would never countenance a national Government. However, if he begins to believe that he is bound to lose there is no telling what tricks he might try to remain in power. Invoke the Civil Contingencies Act perhaps?

Alfred T Mahan

December 8th, 2008 11:40am Report this comment

National Governments only work when there is, to use an American term, a 'clear and present danger' which so overarches other issues that (1) what needs to be done is clear and (2) party is put aside. I really don't see that happening. For starters, there is very unlikely to be any agreement on economic policy when the parties start from such different standpoints, and the current Labour crew are notorious for putting party before policy anyway.

It is alarming that the doomsday scenario is gaining traction so widely. I've long been a pessimist about our economic future but I had hoped that sensible policies would at least minimise the damage and extend the time available for the deeply unpleasant medicine we need to swallow. Unfortunately the policies now being pursued are positively damaging and once the market really takes fright the time advantage will be lost very quickly indeed.

We may well find that events take control much sooner than we now expect.

C Powell

December 8th, 2008 11:46am Report this comment

The way to persuade our creditors that we will be able to repay is to do something serious about the levels of public spending, something which Labour is unable or unwilling to do. There have to be actual cuts not just a slower rate of growth. All sectors of the economy have to bear the pain of reducing our debt. But without such steps investors would be pouring good money after bad.

We don't need a national government to do this; we just need a better government, one which is willing to take the necessary steps. If Labour won't, let's have a general election and replace them with a government which will. This talk of national government is a smokescreen whereby Labour tries to pass responsibility/blame for its own disastrous management of the economy onto others and the Tories should have nothing to do with it.

Prodicus

December 8th, 2008 12:01pm Report this comment

Brown has already told the Bank to stop publishing its weekly money-printing report. That is frightening. It worries me greatly that the papers have not headlined this.

Michael Huntsman

December 8th, 2008 12:23pm Report this comment

Surely another alternative, pace Frank Field, is the holding of a general election so that the electorate might decide who it wants to lead the country and how it wishes to be lead.

Cobbling together a national government at this stage would smack of an admission that neither party has a realistic, feasible plan for recovery and that neither main party wishes to have a genuine electoral contest.

But there is also the thought that we should have nothing to do with Labour as it is presently inclined - corrupt, authoritarian, incompetent, antidemocratic, Europhile, discredited and tired.

It would, in the words of Maxime Weygand, be 'fusion with a corpse'.

Steve

December 8th, 2008 12:50pm Report this comment

I seem to remember Edward Heath proposed the Government of National Unity after he lost the election in february of 74. It didn't work then and it won't work now. Mainland Europe is stricken with weak coalitions meekly carrying out EU diktats. It seems Tsvangerai's position as prime Minister is Zimbabwe is completely pointless as Mugabe is still in power. Finally, if we ever succumbed to such an act of desperation it would send a clear signal to foreign investors that we really have become a basket case!

The Laughng Cavalier

December 8th, 2008 1:01pm Report this comment

Could the possibility of "having" to print money be the reason why the new Banking Bill removes the duty of the Bank of England to report the rate at which it is doing so? It wouldn't be the first time that Brown has hidden the facts from us. Oh, and by the way, there isn't a hope in hell of Brown stepping down. A government of national unity with him at the helm would be a joke.

BETONIT

December 8th, 2008 2:48pm Report this comment

If Brown can avoid calling an election when his term's up, he will.

JimBob

December 8th, 2008 10:38pm Report this comment

GB has yet to explain how the 'global financial slowdown, that started in America' has lead to the slump in the UK's relative performance in the world GDP tables. Presumably it is because of people like George Osborne talking down the pound?

John Miller

December 9th, 2008 7:39pm Report this comment

I think you'll find we already have a national government made up "of all the talents", or have we all forgotten that one?

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