One for the "worst predictions" list?
Peter Hoskin 5:20pm
Over at Comment Central, Alice Fishburn's highlighted a couple of 2008's worst predictions. Of course, we'll have to wait to see how things pan out, but I reckon Alistair Darling's claim that the economy will start recovering by the third quarter of 2009 could well be a contender for the list. He first deployed it during his Pre-Budget Report statement, but it popped up again during the Chancellor's appearance before the Treasury Select Committee today. Here's how the indispensable Politics Home reports it:
Mr Darling said that he expects the economy: "to start to grow in the second half of next year." He said that this estimate was based on: "the low interest rates, the advantage that will come from low inflation, the fiscal stimulus that I put into the economy in the pre-Budget report". But he emphasised that: "there is a lot of uncertainty out there" and that events every day affected the government's assessmentThat reference to "uncertainty" is Darling's token attempt to loosen the forecast, but he also makes things trickier for himself by linking a 2009 economic recovery to his "fiscal stimulus" more explicitly than he has done before. If that recovery doesn't come to pass, expect the opposition parties to have great fun with quotes like these.
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Sally Chatterjee
December 10th, 2008 5:36pm Report this commentOpposition parties can "have great fun with quotes like these" but the point is that the government is using delusional data to plan for the future.
Surely the lesson from the past decade is that we should be taking modest assumptions as the base case for government spending?
I'm less concerned about soundbites and more worried about the currency, the value of my savings and the prospects for millions of jobs. You?
James
December 10th, 2008 5:45pm Report this commentGoldman Sachs - oil will is headed to $200 a barrell
TrevorsDen
December 10th, 2008 6:58pm Report this commentDecember is in the second half of next year.
skooch
December 10th, 2008 7:50pm Report this commentI seem to recall that the BofE gov said, in July this year, that inflation was the UK's biggest problem - only to retract it in October, with a deflationary prospect.
What's going on? If they don't know, then what chance for the rest of us?
Did anyone pick up on Guido's comment re: gov mucking about with/changing a clause re: the banking bill?
oldtimer
December 10th, 2008 8:09pm Report this commentSome of us do not think this is a laughing matter. When you have been faced with the prospect of personal bankruptcy (1974 for me) or charged with running a bust business (losing cash out at £1 million a week early 1980s for me) you view present events with a different and alarmed perspective. 2009 will be at least as bad as these earlier recessions and probably worse. We have a stupid government making stupid decisions.
Augustus
December 10th, 2008 9:24pm Report this commentThe politics of the PBR may turn out to be more important than the economics. A combination of spending cuts and tax rises is essential to restore the public finances, and this may well be the key issue for the next election: Higher taxes and hopeful but unconvincing proposals for spending cuts from Labour now contrast with serious spending cuts and aims for lower taxes and smaller government from the Conservatives.
skooch
December 10th, 2008 9:34pm Report this commentDid I read somewhere, today or yesterday, about US treasury printing money?
Can we focus on this kind of thing?
Praguetory
December 11th, 2008 9:11am Report this comment0.75 growth in Q4 (a forecast made at the end of November in PBR) is a prediction that has already been shown to be palpably wrong.
Ian C
December 11th, 2008 11:22am Report this commentAs he was saying it the figures he produed lst week at the PBR are being devastated by a steeper fall off the cliff by the economy this quarter. His figures will be so afr out by the time of his budget that he will consider resignation. He is fundamentally a decent politician unlike his neighbour whose neck he will want to hang the disaster around.
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