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Monday, 15th December 2008

Another sign that Labour is gearing up for an early election in 2009

James Forsyth 7:54pm

Iain Dale has heard from a friend of his in the ad trade that Labour is buying up advertising space for January. This is going to take the rumours about an early election to the next level following on from The News of the World story that never was about election planning meetings in Downing Street and Trevor Kavanagh’s speculation this morning about a February poll.

The argument for Brown going early is that he needs to go during the crisis stage of the recession and before it is evident whether or not the measures he has taken have worked. But the danger for him is that by once again flirting with an early election he reminds the public why they so lost faith in him last autumn.

To deter Brown, the Tories need to start talking about this at every opportunity. The more Brown is asked about it the more likely he is to rule it out.

P.S. If Labour are contemplating going in 2009, it is even more disgraceful that Brown has yet to consent to the Tories having the usual pre-election meetings with the civil service.

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dark blue

December 15th, 2008 8:09pm Report this comment

Don't forget that there is some "save the world" conference due in London late spring. Brown is deperate to preen at that meeting by chairing it. If he loses a GE he won't even be at it. Will he risk that?

luke

December 15th, 2008 8:21pm Report this comment

There is no chance of a 2009 election with the polls as they stand.

None.

I can only assume this is part of the mischievous attempt to try to whip up a storm about the possibility which you have previously called for?

Either that or you political judgment has completely failed you on this occasion.

Rob Atkins

December 15th, 2008 8:23pm Report this comment

Can anyone point me to a certain Mr Brown who said something along the lines that the electorate would never forgive him if he called an election at this time ... ?

Prodicus

December 15th, 2008 8:45pm Report this comment

To deter Brown, the Tories need to start talking about this at every opportunity.

Kavanagh's on side, then. And Murdoch?

Stepney

December 15th, 2008 8:58pm Report this comment

It'll be forever known as the election that was lost on purpose. This is not so much a poisoned chalice as a pound and a half of mature weapons grade cyanide.

What better long term plan than to lose the election from hell; point and shout for a couple of years as the Tories manfully try and undo the nightmare bequeathed them - then to return in triumph just as things start to get a bit better?

Who cannot see Mandelson whispering the above scenario into the ear of Superman, saviour of the world; appealing to his vanity and self-delusion?

Far fetched?

I don't think so. The only gamble for Brown is getting it right so he can force a hung parliament which would collapse within two years.

Dave B

December 15th, 2008 9:11pm Report this comment

Why would the Conservatives want to deter Mr Brown from calling an early election?

Lets have the election tomorrow, and get a Conservative Government ASAP.

naddo

December 15th, 2008 9:19pm Report this comment

General view in retail is that this Xmas and the first week of Jan will be OK in a kind of last hurrah kind of way.
Then from mid Jan, sales will fall off a cliff for the rest of the year, with a number of names as well known as Woolies going to the wall.

No wonder Brown is thinking about going early.

Poster wise, Feb's pretty tight for decent slots and ZNL don't exactly have many friendly businesses these days to front space for them

TrevorsDen

December 15th, 2008 10:08pm Report this comment

Its been denied by the company on Mr Dales blog.

Can you not find some direct criticism of labour's policy rather than pointless speculation to fill your time - surely plenty opportunity.

Simon Andrews

December 15th, 2008 10:16pm Report this comment

Sorry to spoil the fun but this is a non-story - its just not true.
I work at Mindshare and we are issuing the following press release:
We would like to put on the record that we have received no instruction to buy up advertising space and hoardings as reported in Iain Dales blog.
Simon Andrews
MindShare

George Laird

December 15th, 2008 10:28pm Report this comment

Dear All

James Forsyth in his P.S. makes a very good point regarding Brown's disgraceful conduct.

The Tories should raise this point of lack of access, in the House of Commons, at the dispatch box continually.

What does this show about New Labour and in particular Gordon Brown?

It shows a mean, nasty petty vindictive streak.

Summer 2009 is my predication for Brown to go to the country.

I expect Brown knows that he and his crony ridden crew haven't put in place enough of a back story.

Expect to see more manufactured drama which puts Brown centre stage as a "saviour".

The Germans have effectively poured cold water on his last attempt, so Brown has to start again.

Yours sincerely

George Laird
The Campaign for Human Rights at Glasgow University

Bernard from Horsham

December 15th, 2008 10:37pm Report this comment

He has denied it according to the Mail

http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1095057/Gordon-Brown-denies-February-election-rumours-ministers-claim-recession-worst-ever.html

Marbury

December 15th, 2008 10:40pm Report this comment

So, let's review these "signs of an early election". A tabloid that has been known to take a few risks in the past kills a story because it's not true. A political columnist with space to fill speculates that an early election is being considered but fails to produce any evidence for it. A blogger hears something from a friend...er, that's it. You can go to "the next level" if you like James, I'm staying here.

Colin

December 15th, 2008 11:24pm Report this comment

As far as brown not allowing the Tories access to civil servants.

Could we have a classic evil regime scenario here? The one where the regime HAS to cling to power for as long as possible in order to avoid being exposed as being involved in all kinds of nefarious activities and as a result, senior regime henchmen finding themselves on the wrong end of the long arm of the law.

There are plenty of schemes, scams, plots and scandals cooked up and perpetrated by this regime since 1997, that they'd rather not see exposed.

Ted Foan

December 15th, 2008 11:56pm Report this comment

Even with Mandy at his back (and Campbell whispering in his ear) Brown has not got the balls (or is that Balls?) to take the risk of a snap election - or even one in June. The situation is too volatile and he will continue to gamble that the economic up turn comes early in 2010 and he can take his chance in May/June of that year.

The worst thing for the Conservatives about this strategy is that they will have to be very adaptable in their narrative to avoid being drawn into petty little excursions into topics that Labour choose to confuse and obfuscate their abject failure in managing the economy. Cameron & Co will have to stick their guns to ensure people realise the country can only be pulled back from near-bankruptcy if they are elected.

Ivan Dunnow

December 16th, 2008 12:27am Report this comment

Now that you've yet again behaved like a bunch of lemmings, and repeated any old spurious cr*p found on Iain Dale's blog, *and* you've thereby been demonstrated to be poltroons, is anyone actually going to 'fess up and say "sorry"? Or is that just a word you sanctimoniously like to hear only from others?

Labour Matters

December 16th, 2008 12:41am Report this comment

Spectator speculates about a speculative election which they previously suggested would be a good thing to be speculated about for the Tories? What a shocking pile of poop!

Fergus Pickering

December 16th, 2008 4:21am Report this comment

Oh come on you lot. Don't be so gutless. WHENEVER Brown calls an election he will lose it. Remember, the polls ALWAYS overestimate the Labour vote. Look at the last three elections. And the one before that, come to that. Ther's a erason for this, but I've forgotten what it is. And stop insisting that Cameron has to hector himself into power. You talk as if Mandelson was a kind of evil Time Lord. A man who managed to get himself sacked for taking money TWICE can't be that good, can he? And have we EVER had a Chancellor as useless as Alistair Darling. Maybe Selwyn Lloyd, but that really is going back a bit. Lloyd was known to be likeable, loyal and thick. Darling is just loyal and thick. This lot will lose. Why? Because they're effing useless. You all say so but you still think they can pull it off again. Where's youur guts? Where's your balls? Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party Say NICE things about Cameron. Not difficult. He's a very competent leader. Say nice things about Boy George. Harder I agree, but it can still be done. I'm sure his mother loves him. Compare him with ANY member of the Labour front bench. See what I mean. If Cameron reshuffles a few WOMEN and a few COMMON PEOPLE with COMMON accents onto the front bench, which I'm sure he will, then we're all ready to go. As I daid before, that muslim woman is gold dust. And what about Pauline whassername Jones. Intelligent, incisive, to the right of Attila the Hun. What more do you want?

Hugh

December 16th, 2008 6:42am Report this comment

There seem to be a few people here unnaturally upset by this speculation. They're quite right, though, the advertising men have said it's not true and if we can't trust them then what's the world coming to. I think it only right that James publish a retraction.

cuffleyburgers

December 16th, 2008 8:03am Report this comment

Brown will not risk an election before hosting the Watford summit.

The whole point of his posturing for all these years has been that he wants to set up a bigger and better IMF with himself at the helm, and go down in history as the greatest scotsman ever, thereby expunging the failures of Robert The Bruce and Bonnie Prince Charlie.

On Planet Brown, these things are possible.

mac

December 16th, 2008 8:45am Report this comment

Night patrol from the Rebuttal shills.

Are you paid double time after midnight, Ivan?

Ivan Dunnow

December 16th, 2008 10:46am Report this comment

Yeah, I'm a Labour troll. Who cunningly prepared for this job with a fantastically laborious deep-cover background story of Tory activism, up to and include such giddy, pompous heights as being an area officer and being on the list. And you are also right of course to completely ignore the substnace of what I said in your spot-on attempt at man-not-ball playing. I mean, after spouting *unmitigated garbage* about advertising space, and it being demonstrated to be such, why on earth should anyone apologise for that? It would be a sign of weakness! Keep on keeping on. People like you make me prouder than ever to be a Tory. 'Any lie will do', eh?

JONNY

December 16th, 2008 11:00am Report this comment

Give us a break
please, please oh please Mr Forsyth
There ain't going to be an election - not in February, not in March, not in April, not in May - and not in June either.
Now is that clear Mr Forsyth.
If you want to know why, read the comments above. Read and for Gawdsake inwardly digest.
You see it's too bleeding risky. We're in utterly unpredictable territory, with a strong probabilty that the Saviour of the World will have to pack up his sporran and move back to bonny Fifeshire.
Gottit? - or are we going to have to put up with this sort of thing right through 2009?
I know it's good copy. But there is a limit to our patience...

teledu

December 16th, 2008 3:56pm Report this comment

Find out when the Irish re-run of their referendum is and then pick a date AFTER that for a UK general election. The EU project comes first. Mandy won't want the Tories getting in BEFORE the Irish have given the EU the "right" answer. The EU project comes first. Not democracy, not accountability, not integrity, not responsibility, not honesty, not transparency, not even the Labour Party. The EU project comes first.

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