How long do we have to stay in Iraq?

This New York Times report on the progress of the surge is sobering reading. Despite the current push, two-thirds of Baghdad’s neighbourhoods remain outside of the control of US forces. But contrary to the way that these stories feed into the political process, this is not actually an argument for leaving. Indeed, until things improve you can’t contemplate withdrawing unless you’re prepared to accept genocidal violence.

Recently the director of the Iraq Study Group reversed his position on whether the US and Britain could withdraw in 2008 and now argues that you’ve got to be in Iraq at roughly current levels for at least five years. Here’s what he told CBS News:

"I don't think there's the real option to withdraw completely, because it's quite clear the Iraqi government wouldn't survive complete withdrawal," said Daniel Serwer, the former director of the Iraq Study Group.

Just six months ago, the group recommended pulling all combat troops out in 2008. But he says that it no longer possible.

"You're talking about staying from five to 10 more years," he said. "You're not talking about staying a few more months."

At current levels?

"Maybe with some drawdown, but at close to current levels," Serwer said.