Is the cat slowly creeping out of the bag?

Dan

A 2009 election is a certainty because Labour will be routed if they wait until 2010. Not even Brown is that stupid.

Michael Portillo reckons February 26th before the shocking economic news intensifies. I think June is more likely after Obama's visit.

Alf Tupper

At this rate, by June our leader will be ducking round the service entrance away from any cameras.

We will have gone past that point in our calamity, at which the appearance of the one who led us into it, is greeted with universal and immovable derision - Obama or no.

Gordon Musgo

I'm sorry, what happened to 'nearly everyone in Westminster' as recently as yesterday? Oh, that's on page 2 now, so it's prehistorical. YOU know who is peddling these stories, yet you feed them to us as if butter wouldn't melt. Calm down, 2010 is a long time.

TrevorsDen

Would any sane person really believe a word Whelan said?

Last I read Labour were on 35% or 33% take your pick.

Cogito Ergosum

Do we really need full and expensive elections?

In 2005 the final results were, in statistical terms, not significantly different from the opinion polls of a month earlier.

Could we not just get some computers to produce a new list of MPs every so often by applying the poll results to each constituency?

John Moss

Job losses in November and December will be formally recorded in official figures announced in January and February and will be horrendous. Brown will not want to be fighting an election against that backdrop.

Businesses going bust through Jan, Feb, March, April, May and June will mean he won't want to fight a general election in June either.

10 June 2010.

strapworld

You will note that I have said, for some time January or February 2009. It has to be February but I think they will spread it over a weekend to get maximum attendance. (30%)

Nicholas

Can't you run a feature on Bob Quick's attack on the Tories instead of all this pointless GE speculation? It seems to be an unprecedented and blatant political move with the usual New Labour emotive stuff about having to move his children out of his home. Link posted at Guido's:-

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20081221/tuk-tories-undermining-leak-inquiry-6323e80.html

I'm surprised that a senior serving police officer is permitted to make public his views in this way, especially regarding a supposedly active police investigation. Does this signal the Met overtly supporting Brown in the run up to an election?

Alky Aida

My crystal ball shows the following sequence of events:
Election fever kicks off in January and reaches fever pitch at the end of the month, with opinion polls showing Labour in the lead by a couple of percent.
Not wanting to repeat the events of last Autumn, Brown decides to gamble and calls the election for mid February.
Labour are the largest party but do not hold an overall majority.
Brown's Government limps through to the autumn and collapses after a vote of no confidence.
Conservatives surge ahead and win the election in October with a mjority of 50.

Anthony

The election that never was is very different from the one that will be.

The decision on the aborted one rested on Brown's judgement. He has now lost all confidence in himself and is delegating everything to Mandelson. The election, when it comes, we be Mandy's call. Mandelson needs this election as soon as possible, because we all know what happens when Mandy's been in post too long - he has to resign.

Barring something extraordinary it must be Spring 2009.

Ian C

The election possibilities are before the Budget or after the expected tsunami of 2009 redundancies begin to reverse - i.e. not in 2009 (or 2010!). 26th February is, I am told, the possible date that the Opposition have to be ready for.

But if what the polls indicate, that the wide belief is that this is someone else's depression, turns out to be nearer reality then spring 2010 will be a much better time for Labour. The PBR pointed in this direction whatever you thought of its measures.

The reason Brown has a spring in his step is that he has got real players in the backroom (Mandy and Campbell) instead of his toy boys and girls. So he will have more trust in what they tell him to do. Whatever the date there is a very large gamble for him to decide upon.

For the Tories it is a case of maintaining an adequate profile so that, once again, an incumbent government simply loses the election - 1997, 1979, 1974, 1970 1964 and so on. It will be no different this time unless it does not get as bad as we all currently fear - and let's face it we don’t want it to get that bad. That makes it very difficult for the Tories also.

Andy

Gordon's going to find it hard to make his mind up (he isn't very decisive at the best of times, is he?) because he'll wonder should he go before the economic sh/1T really hits the fan, or should he wait for the Obamania hysteria to kick in or should he hang on until the Irish have voted the "right" way this time? Decisions, decisions ....

mitch

I wouldn't bet on there being an election think the civil contingency act and an incident.We are gonna have to pry the keys from browns cold dead snot encrusted fingers.

madasafish

As the economy is going to really nosedive in March 2009, not much time left.

And I mean nosedive..as in serious trouble..Think the banks were bad? Just wait.

luke

"It also undermines the idea that all this election speculation has been cooked up by CCHQ as an attempt to reawaken memories of Bottler Brown"

That's your idea! You have being saying that on this website!!?!

Labour Matters

Is Coffee House and journalist an oxymoron?

There'll be no election before June, and the PM's just confirmed it.

Charlie T

Nice to see an "ex" communist class warrior owning 2 houses.

I guess in Browns moral Britain party functionaries trump hard working families everytime out

Pete Hoskin

luke: I haven't said that, and we don't all speak with one voice here on Coffee House.

For the record, I think the Tories have done what they can to stoke the speculation. But that's not the same as saying "all" the chat has come from CCHQ, as has been claimed in some quarters.

Wilhelm

The photo of Gordon Broon looking into the middle distance trying to look thoughtful.

Nah, it doesnt work, son.

Peter Wilson

The Machiavelli blog, claims that Brown can wait until September 2010 for an election rather than June as I thought, since Parliament could go into Recess and the election need not be until Parliament is due to return.

Can some else confirm this, because that is nearly 2 years away, and I don't doubt Brown will wait until the very last possible moment to go

luke

Apologies Pete - you are quite right, it was Frazer.

You are quite right also that it would be grossly unfair to assume you all spoke with one voice. That's one reason this site is so entertaining.