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Sunday, 21st December 2008

Brown to wait until 2010?

Fraser Nelson 9:39pm

The ghost of Christmas Future has arrived at Kirkcaldy - and persuaded Gordon Brown not to hold an election next year. So says Ben Brogan, and it rings true.

I've previously set out the case for a January election, and Trevor Kavanagh that for a February one.  But the PM hasn't taken our advice, and tomorrow he'll rule out a winter election.  His loss.  Every week he waits, his fingerprints will be ever more visible in the economic mess and the Tory majority will be bigger.

Ben says that Brown's unofficially ruling out April, May and June too. Given that we'll have a Euro election in June (in which Labour's certain to get tonked, badly) this effectively rules out 2009 - you can't justify two elections so close to each other, and - even if you could - the Euro result may put Brown off.

With Mandelson around, you can never rule out a surprise. But it looks like that advertising space Labour apparently booked for January will be yet more squandered money.

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TGF UKIP

December 21st, 2008 10:47pm Report this comment

Could very easily all be part of the ploy. Gordon announces no intention to hold election before 2010 "so that the British people can see how our policies of helping working families and businesses work for them."

Then in new year he picks big policy fight with Tories and announces that while he wants to go on to 2010, he cannot do so with so much negativity from the "do nothing Tories" and therefore the nation must be given a choice.

As you say, Fraser, the longer it goes the worse it must get for him and while his reluctance to face an electorate may be overwhelming, we shouldn't forget Mandelson is also involved now.

I will be truly amazed if both of them have plumped for 2010 but if Mandelson is not on board for that, the press leaks to that effect should not be too far away.

strapworld

December 21st, 2008 10:47pm Report this comment

Fraser, Do not be fooled buy them. FEBRUARY 2009 will be the General Election.

Mike, Brighton

December 21st, 2008 11:30pm Report this comment

What a shame (if true). A lost early chance to be rid of the foetid PM and his vile government.

Labour Matters

December 21st, 2008 11:35pm Report this comment

Ha ha, booked advertising posters eh? Not so much.

February election. No so much.

Egg on your face? Lots.

mitch

December 22nd, 2008 5:00am Report this comment

I could never believe anything he says(or something like that)
the mans a serial liar he will go when he thinks he can win because its the right thing to do.

mac

December 22nd, 2008 7:26am Report this comment

Labour Matters - "Ha, ha"??
You're Monty Python's Black Knight, aren't you?

Gordon Musgo

December 22nd, 2008 8:30am Report this comment

Everything about the man says he will wait. No bottle to go while the polls aren't giving him a massive lead. No money in party funds, and only the unions have any, at a price. 100 labour MPs who stand to lose £100,000 plus (and pension money) if they lose their seat a year early, including some in the cabinet, I dare say. The Micawber factor. Something MIGHT turn up. The recovery? He and Captain Darling say it's next year!

The Laughing Cavalier

December 22nd, 2008 9:00am Report this comment

June 4th 2010, th last possible day an election can be held without overrunning the quinqueniial limit. But, remember this is El Gordo, the man who saved the World. On June 3rd he may, in the interests of the nation, nay, the World, declare that this is no time for a novice, what Britain and the World need is an experienced Saviour at the helm and no distractions from an unnecessary election. Fanciful? Let us see.

HJ

December 22nd, 2008 9:36am Report this comment

Whenever Brown holds the election he will lose, the only question is how much more economic damage he will do before he goes.

I wonder whether 'Labour matters' would care to comment on the following that appeared in 'The Independent' written by Hamish McRae, the economics commentator:

"Our national debt, if you include the liabilities of the Royal Bank of Scotland now that it is majority-owned by the taxpayer, would become the highest in the world relative to GDP. Even without RBS (and I think that is a fairer calculation), it looks as though it will go from under 40 per cent of GDP to something close to 80 per cent. I don't think Gordon Brown has any idea of the contempt in which he is held in the rest of the world. I sat at lunch next to a top European politician a few months ago and his assessment was unrepeatable. (He cheered up noticeably when I said that the PM couldn't win an election.)"

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-the-big-risk-for-britain-is-not-a-falling-pound-but-a-devalued-government-1205900.html

DSR

December 22nd, 2008 9:39am Report this comment

Labour Matters :

Bizarre - even by your standards

Carlisle

December 22nd, 2008 9:39am Report this comment

Step 1 - suggest that tories should be talking up election

Step 2 - talk up election

Step 3 - quote unsourced people around "westminster" who are believing all your talking up of an election

Step 4 - Claim brown has "backed down" when he doesnt call an election

Classic spin operation. You are in the wrong profession.

Never ever again will I believe you when you say something is a brownie. This tops all of them!

Hope

December 22nd, 2008 9:42am Report this comment

Run a blog? £50 a month

Get connected in "the right" circles? Hours of painful parties

Build a reputation as a leading political commentator? Months of hard work

Throw away all credibility through predicting an election that doesnt happen and was never on the cards? Priceless

PeterH

December 22nd, 2008 3:49pm Report this comment

Is there not a danger that they may try and avoid an election altogether by proposing a 'Government of National Unity' or some other such ploy? It would be totally in Brown's character.

mitch

December 22nd, 2008 6:10pm Report this comment

Ole brown stain moved the economic goalposts enough times for his advantage so why not claim his 5yrs started the day he walked into No10?

Labour Matters

December 22nd, 2008 6:52pm Report this comment

Mac, nothing bizarre about it. Fraser will be well aware of the sentiment, which Carlisle spells out for those who haven't read the Coffee House archive or put up with the lamentable spin of the last couple of months.

teledu

December 22nd, 2008 8:11pm Report this comment

Whenever Crash Gordon calls the election, the likelihood is he'll lose. Therefore he's been left in no doubt that he must wait until AFTER the Irish Lisbon Constitution referendum re-run. He must not let the pro-referendum Tories get in BEFORE complete ratification of the Lisbon constitution. The EU project comes first; that's all you need to factor in when guessing when an election may be called. The EU project comes first.

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