'Tis the season for rebellion

Let me offer up something that isn't quite a prediction, but more something to look out for in 2009: Labour rebellion.  There's already one brewing over Peter Mandelson's plans for Royal Mail, and - according to today's Independent - it could be pretty sizeable.  The reports are that "more than 100" Labour MPs are set to support an early day motion opposing the plans once Parliament reconvenes on 12 January.  

Now, this isn't to say that this rebellion's a good thing in and of itself.  As Iain Dale wrote memorably a few weeks ago, "Peter Mandelson is right" so far as the Royal Mail reforms are concerned - and they could well get the Tory/Lib Dem support that may be necessary to drive them through.  But the point is that a rebellion will do much to undermine No.10's message that Labour is completely behind Gordon Brown.  And it could even reverse what little "Brown Bounce" remains.

The hope for the PM is that a Royal Mail rebellion isn't just a prelude for something bigger and potentially more damaging 'round Budget time.  There's still a significant degree of disgruntlement over both the eradication of the 10p tax band and the Government's subsequent efforts to compensate the 10p tax losers. The discontent orchestrated by Frank Field last year was one of the most the most important factors in Brown's then-slumping poll ratings.  Now the recession's biting deeper, the same issue could have greater traction still.