Reasons to think 2009 will be good for the Tories
James Forsyth 9:04am
Anthony King, the polling sage, has an op-ed in the Telegraph today setting out the polling case for why the Tories should go into the New Year in good heart. King notes that the Tories—who have led in the YouGov poll for the last 15 months with forty percent plus support—have not been in such a strong polling position since the poll tax did for Margaret Thatcher’s popularity. He also points out that anti-Tory tactical voting is likely to unwind at the next election with Labour’s lead among Lib Dem voters having fallen from 40 percent at the last election to 11 percent today.
But the prime reason for optimism for the Tories that King sets out is that the government is bound to be hurt politically by the reality of the recession:
“Labour's spurt this autumn, which has already been partially reversed, is almost certain to look like a temporary blip in a long downward spiral. Next year will bring not only a stagnant housing market but home repossessions on a large scale, bankruptcies, reduced industrial output, factory closures, boarded-up shops in every high street, more expensive holidays abroad and mounting unemployment – with steeply increased taxes in prospect. Those in debt will suffer, but millions of conscientious savers will suffer just as badly, with the implosion of the stock market and interest rates at almost derisory low levels.
Under those circumstances, it will be a near-miracle if Mr Brown and his Government prosper politically. As this year's acute economic crisis becomes next year's chronic crisis, the Tories have no need to be subtle. All they have to say is: "You got us into this mess and it's clear you can't get us out of it." YouGov's monthly findings already show that large majorities of voters are convinced Mr Brown bears "much of the responsibility for allowing borrowing and lending in this country to get out of hand in the first place".
Needless to say, the Conservatives' greatest asset is that they are not in power. Fortunately for them, their greatest asset almost certainly trumps their greatest liability, which is that few voters have any idea how the Tories will comport themselves if and when they regain power. For the foreseeable future, the devil that voters don't know looks like being more attractive than the one they do.”
As Anthony Wells has argued, Labour has risen in the polls because people think the economy will pull through. When it doesn’t, Labour’s standing is going to take a substantial hit to the benefit of the Tories.
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Ian C
December 30th, 2008 9:51am Report this commentAs it dawns on everyone that they have taken the wrong action, and that it was action taken to be seen to do something to get themselves out of the mire, Labour support will vanish.
strapworld
December 30th, 2008 10:10am Report this commentThen he woke up!
Tiberius
December 30th, 2008 10:15am Report this commentAh, the voters - those delicate flowers, who knew nothing about the consequences of putting New Labour into power but did so anyway, are now too unsure about the consequences of putting Cameron into power to consider pledging their vote to him.
Oddly, many do realize the consequences of New Labour's incompetence in government, from the pensions theft to the 10p tax fiasco, but still can't quite let go of the dream.
When asked in mixed company, one is not always able to articulate why you should vote for Cameron, but Michael Gove's piece in the Christmas edition of the mag alone should be enough to convince anyone of the necessity to vote Tory.
[Incidentally, does anyone have any rational explanation as to why Labour wants to destroy our children's minds]?
Anan
December 30th, 2008 1:15pm Report this commentJust shows how stupid the general population is if they think the same people that ruin the economy can somehow improve themselves sufficiently to then fix the economy. What a bunch of morons. More and more I feel like the Conservatives should just withdraw from the election and let Labour keep power and sort out the mess themselves. The idiotic population of this country deserve noting better, quite frankly.
After the Conservatives win in 2009/10 expect nothing less than shameless and hypocritical criticism and condemnation from the the Libdem/Labour opposition for any and every problem that the Conservatives must face and correct due to the current Stalinists' actions for the last 11 years!
Having said that I'd prefer Labour to deal with their own problems, it would however be nice to see the Liberal Demented party in Opposition with the Neuen Arbeiters Partei necrosed into third place!
Anan
December 30th, 2008 1:17pm Report this commentIn answer to Tiberius: probably because Labour are morons who couldn't even pass the 11+ and so they prefer that every intelligent child should also be made to feel their own shame and inadequacy by being destroyed by a ruined education system.
Hysteria
December 30th, 2008 1:27pm Report this commentTiberius - your last question has been niggling at me for over a year now - what is the motive for many of their actions which are demonstrably against the greater needs of the nation.
Are they all deluded? Some moonbat conspiracy? I just don't get it!
cuffleyburgers
December 30th, 2008 1:59pm Report this comment@ Hysteria
It is because they disconnect totally their actions from their rhetoric and each of them from the facts and the reality.
That is why they can say (and believe) that white is white today to the CBI, that it is black tomorrow to the TUC and a pinkish shade of vermillion next week at conference. Meanwhile the fact that is is really grey, and that that requires course of action (A) is overshadowed by the fact that (A) has been rejected by a focus group and therefore they will do (B) but say they have done (C) so as to appeal also to certain followers who have ben restive of late, and whom we want to persuade to agree also to a certain action (G) which they normally wouldn't but there's a by-election there next week etc etc you get the picture.
The actions are carried out from day to day in response to what it has been necessary to say to the media as far as possible, with the odd lie in the middle to try to make it all fit a narrative.
Anyone reading Bower's excellent biography of Brown will see this with perfect clarity, and will then understand why the country is such a mess (because it never entered anyone's head that the various laws and actions that were enacted could actually have consequences other than those described in their rhetoric.
This is the inevitable consequence of overcentralization (of which Thatcher was also guilty) but mainly of socialism.
So Hysteria, yes they are deluded. There is no conspiracy.
They're as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking contest.
Mr Green
December 30th, 2008 3:09pm Report this commentThe problem is still one of association. When asked, people still feel they need to qualify their reasons for being a Conservative voter. Once people can openly state their Tory voting intentions then there will be a huge swing to the right. But that's not the case just yet. It very nearly got their a few months ago, but not quite.
Once the Conservatives are in power you will find that "everyone" actually votes Conservate and always has done! Fickle beasts, these swing voters.
cityboozer
December 30th, 2008 3:14pm Report this commentIt's not an "op-ed", it's a "column", "article" or "piece".
Please. We have much nicer names for things in Britain (consider "beltway" vs "village") and I see no reason to standardise this terminology anyway.
Jilly
December 30th, 2008 4:32pm Report this commentDestroying children's minds: I know the answer! David Lamy M.P. on Celeb Mastermind: 'what was the surname of Pierre and Marie who won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry? His answer - 'Antionnette'
Just one of a series of peculiarly ignorant answers.
So dumbing down children is an attempt to ensure they are no brighter than the thickos in government.
Richard Holloway
December 31st, 2008 9:10am Report this commentThe best analysis of the socialist mindset I've read is in Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged. Her own philosophy is idealistic claptrap, but the light she shines on exposing socialism's dark roots makes for very thought provoking reading.
Hysteria
December 31st, 2008 4:57pm Report this commentRichard - any links/quotes??
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