What to look out for in 2009
James Forsyth 2:49pm
The events of 2008 should make us all wary about making predictions. So instead, I’m going to flag up some things that I think are worth watching out for in 2009.
The Chinese government’s legitimacy is predicated upon rapid economic growth, so what will happen there when the downturn hits? I’m fascinated to see if there is more social unrest, whether newly affluent urbanites become as irked at the Communist party as folk in the countryside and whether the leadership resorts to nationalist sabre-rattling in an attempt to shore up its position.
Iran is the problem that hasn’t gone away. As Richard Beeston notes in The Times this morning, Iran could have enough fissile material to build a bomb in 2009. It’ll be intriguing to see how Obama handles this. Personally, I’m convinced that no US president can afford to let Iran go nuclear. The earlier Obama goes for direct negotiations, the more serious I’ll believe he is about dealing with this problem. Every diplomatic avenue will have to be exhausted—and seen to be exhausted—before the world and the American public can be convinced of the need for more forceful actions.
In domestic politics, I suspect that this will be a good year for the Tories. But will we see an MP actually defect to them? As James Kirkup argued the other day, a southern Lib Dem jumping ship could be a harbinger of a political realignment in the south. Another southern thing to watch is what the political consequences of an angry south are as the region gets hit hardest by the recession, the devastation of the financial services industry and collapsing house prices.
Anyway, Happy New Year everyone and thanks for reading in 2008.
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David Duff
December 31st, 2008 3:02pm Report this commentTaiwan - beware!
TGF UKIP
December 31st, 2008 6:38pm Report this commentBut can Cameron win without the northern marginals and, indeed, does he deserve to win given his obtuse refusal to make any appeal to northern C2 voters.
Anyway it's about time the South found out what a recession was and dare I suggest there will even be a quiet degree of satisfaction up here if the South suffers disproportionately more this time around.
As for Obama and his dysfunctional concoction of a moderate/radical Administration, the test will come early but from whence is not so predictable as the reaction which will be initially decisive posturing but giving way to internally divisive feuding. Obama is the original flimflam man and this Administration could unravel with surprising speed.
I know you don't agree with this James but my thanks for the way you have illuminated the world this year and particularly for all those brilliant primary and GE election posts from the States.
I'm only sorry I can't buy you a New Year drink out of my winnings on McCain! Still this could be a very very short US political cycle if the GOP keeps its nerve.
Happy travelling in 2009!
JohnAnt
December 31st, 2008 9:57pm Report this comment2009
1.February: It becomes clear that Brown will make no cuts whatsoever in public spending; on the contrary, government borrowing and spending rises.
2.April: the penny begins to drop: Brown is re-employing the unemployed from the private sector as environmental bin monitors and nationalised bank 'overseers' and as regulators in the FSA.
3. June: Another bank fails because of poor FSA regulation.
4. July: economists question how Brown can manage to pay the new intake of 2m public servants.
5. September: The UK Statistics Authority finally admits that since January there has been 7.5% inflation in food and basics, caused by the weak £ and more expensive imports. The government's VAT receipts rise exponentially.
Brown calls a general election.
Wilhelm
January 1st, 2009 5:24am Report this commentWe have to put up with dour Gordon Broons ugly mug for another year.
CCTV
January 1st, 2009 7:21am Report this commentFrance is convulsed by riots as they spread from Greece and Spain as Labour readies the Civil Contingencies Act.
Universities with big construction projects face insolvency, and NHS trusts begin treatment rationing to save cash
Brown stumbles into an election as trade unionists take to the streets in protest and a minority Conservative administration enters office
Birdman Ronnie
January 1st, 2009 11:37am Report this commentWhat to look out for in 2009?
Walking into the meeting requested by some supervisor, to find, seated by his side, the young bint from HR with a Masters and usually a cold sore. She staring intensely at her notes, pen hovering as if to give them a light preparatory hose-down.
Look out for that and Happy New Year.
Minuteman
January 1st, 2009 5:34pm Report this commentThe first rumblings of civil war in the USA, as Obama inadvertently starts to unwind the Union.
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