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Friday, 2nd January 2009

Elections the Tories should win in 2009

James Forsyth 12:45pm

The idea that 2009 will be a good year for the Tories is fast becoming conventional wisdom. Michael Brown makes this case in typically eloquent style in The Independent today arguing that once the downturn begins to really hurt, people will turn from the government to the opposition. But what really struck me was Brown’s observation about the two elections that we definitely will have here in 2009:

“For the first time since 1993, county council elections will be held in England NOT on the same day as the general election.
In 1997, 2001 and 2005 these local elections coincided with Tony Blair's three victories on general election turnouts – saving hundreds of Labour-held county council seats. This year those seats will be defended on low turnouts ranging from 35 to 40 per cent, resulting in an overwhelming clean sweep for the Tories.

Similarly, on the same day in June, the European elections will also be held. Again, the Tories are poised for massive gains thanks to the implosion of the UK Independence Party that clocked up over 2.7 million votes in 2004 which translated into 12 seats in the European Parliament. These should easily fall to the Tories, making for dramatic headlines about the extent of the Tory revival.”

Big gains in these elections would help the Tories in several ways. It would create a bandwagon effect and calm the nerves of those who worry that the party is not as far ahead as it should be. Perhaps most importantly, though, it would probably reopen the divisions in Labour’s ranks as factions within the party start jockeying for post-defeat advantage in 2010.

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David Boycott

January 2nd, 2009 1:17pm Report this comment

Don't get too cocky bout the implosion of UKIP. I am going to switch from Conservative to UKIP because of Cameron's failure to keep his promise that Tory MEPs would leave the EPP.

Rhoda Klapp

January 2nd, 2009 2:07pm Report this comment

For the euros, UKIP sympathisers, no matter how useless the party is, get a free protest vote. Because it doesn't matter who goes to Strasbourg or wherever the hell it is, the only thing that matters is the large-scale opinion poll.

(As readers will know, its not a proper election in any other way, and never will be as long as there are party lists).

perdix

January 2nd, 2009 2:07pm Report this comment

So David Boycott is going to throw his toys out of his pram!

wonderfulforhisage

January 2nd, 2009 2:09pm Report this comment

I agree with David B. 1:17. My guess is that many traditional Labour voters that can't bring themselves to vote Tory will turn to UKIP. And, yesterday's poll showing more than 70% of the electorate rejecting the euro is a strong pointer to anti EU sentiments. UKIP could well end up with more votes than the Labour party.

Polly and Alice's mum

January 2nd, 2009 2:27pm Report this comment

I agree, David Boycott. Also, I have a sneaking suspicion that David Cameron may not be trusted on the whole Lisbon/referendum thing.
I think that if he can get away with it, he will say something like "Lisbon is now a done thing, and we should move on....etc"

AlanofEngland

January 2nd, 2009 3:07pm Report this comment

I too will vote UKIP as my chance of making a "referendum" choice not given me by any other party. I will work as hard as I can in my locality to persuade my friends and neighbours to do likewise. I want UKIP to win every seat, and I don't see ANY implosion of UKIP at all.

Tim Worstall

January 2nd, 2009 3:38pm Report this comment

Iagree with David Bocott as well....and Rhoda, Alan and so on.

But then for professional reasons I think most would expect that anyway.

Rhoda Klapp

January 2nd, 2009 4:09pm Report this comment

Here's a test to determine whether it makes any difference. What is the total coverage of the Spectator. print or net, in the last year, of the actions of Tory MEPs? And as a proportion of the coverage of westminster? Well, that's how much it matters, and that makes it a free vote and an opinion poll with a very big sample. That's why ukip did well last EUs, and they will do so again. It's only a protest vote though.

Ian C

January 2nd, 2009 4:42pm Report this comment

Get off your high horses everyone and vote for a party that can actually do something even if it is not directly or fully aligned with your specific requirements. I wnet into the polling station once intending to vote UKIP once and could not make myself waste my trip. Remember, "politics is the art of the possible..........."

Athesius the Facilitator

January 2nd, 2009 4:50pm Report this comment

David Boycott and others. I sympathise with you but give Dave a chance. He "will" I hope pull out of the EPP but the chap is supping with the devil and so has to use a long spoon.
I will vote UKIP for the rest of my life if after he wins power he reneges on Lisbon and the EPP but I urge you all to give him his go. And then if he lets us all down we can tell him to get stuffed with a clear conscience.

Fergus Pickering

January 2nd, 2009 5:08pm Report this comment

Sorry. I amm ignorant. Who is David Boycott? A son the wrong side of the blanket of the great Sir Geoffrey. A leading light of UKIP? I can't be the ONLY one who doesn't know.

Rhoda Klapp

January 2nd, 2009 5:39pm Report this comment

Ian C, no party can do anything in the euro parliament. It's a useless talking shop. It doesn't matter. It's a chance to protest vote with no real downside. And what's more, I don't cast my vote for a party in a real election, I cast it for a candidate. In the stupid euro elections this is not the case, And I don't like it. You don't even get to influence who actually goes to join the gravy train. Not only should you not take this election seriously, you cannot do so.

I would consider holding my nose and voting for another party if one came along with a realistic euro policy, but it seems it is not possible for the tories to be that party because they dare not articulate such a policy for fear of the dreaded split.

jennywren

January 2nd, 2009 6:18pm Report this comment

I voted for UKIP in the last Euro elections and have regretted it ever since. Don't do it. It may feel like a protest vote, but actually is not a vote for anything much.

Max Kaye

January 2nd, 2009 6:30pm Report this comment

The EU MEP elections are for, as Rhoda Klapp above says, a useless talking shop.

It is, however, an opportunity to protest on a single issue.

Unless Cameron acts decisively beforehand, I too will vote UKIP.

Andy Leeds

January 2nd, 2009 8:40pm Report this comment

I disagree with most of you. Voting for UKIP has done a huge amount of damage to the Tories and has been to the advantage of Labour and the European cause. I detest the EU and all its works, but voting for UKIP is no way to defeat it. Voting Tory is. Pestering Tory MPs to get the party to give a cast iron assurance that come what may they will hold a referendum on the EU Constitution (masquerading as the Lisbon Treaty) and voting for the Tories is all that matters.

Polly and Alice's mum

January 2nd, 2009 8:47pm Report this comment

Jennywren: ANY vote in euro elections is "not a vote for anything much".
WHOEVER we vote for is not going to make a jot of difference. If the whole of Europe voted for anti-EU parties, the colleuges would ignore our vote (remember France, the Netherlands, and Ireland). The Eu is totally un-democratic and however we vote, will not take the slightest notice. Welcome to Animal Farm.

teledu

January 2nd, 2009 9:09pm Report this comment

I'm voting UKIP at the Euro elections and hope that a large enough number do just the same. Then, perhaps, both Labour & Conservative might really understand just how much contempt the average person has for the EUssr in this country. Maybe, just maybe, they might then begin to stand up to the EUssr in the knowledge that they'd have the electorates support in doing so. I won't hold my breath though; for the political elite of the three main parties, the Euro project comes first and stuff popular opinion.
There is now a gulf between our political "masters" and the electorate that attitudes to the EU magnify. They - the professional politicians - believe they know better and must ignore the opinions of the misguided fools who dare disagree for their own good. Their haughty attitude seems to be one of "look, this is too complex and serious a matter for you plebs to know what the f@@k you're talking about. So we'll do what we want and won't entertain any protest."
Who now speaks for the average anti-EUssr Brit? It's not any of the big three parties, so vote UKIP. At least let the bastards know you despise our craven submission to a corrupt organisation that no bugger in this country ever voted to be a part of. If you won't man the barricades at least use the ballot box - before an EU law is introduced banning anti-EUssr parties. Don't think it can't happen.

Ben Elford

January 2nd, 2009 11:06pm Report this comment

As a long-time Conservative, I too will be voting for a UKIP candidate.

The Conservative's craven approach to the problem if the EU is out of line with the views of the people of this country, who cannot look to any of the major parties to take them seriously on this matter.

Rhoda Klapp

January 3rd, 2009 8:41am Report this comment

Andy Leeds, maybe we want to do harm to a tory party which will not give us the policies we want on the EU. The tories it was who enacted most of the harmful EU treaties and legislation. They have serious form on the issue. They have had ample chance to declare the policies which would appeal to us, and fail to do so, and we don't know whether that is from expediency (not wanting to split) or indeed from inclination (they don't hate the EU as much as we do, they rather like it). A conservative party which could articualte the position I like on the EU would get my vote. Obviously UKIP is a bunch of clowns run by a control freak, and not to be trusted if this were a serious election. But as it doesn't matter who gets the seats, we MUST run this as a free protest vote. I'd hope that in the post-game analysis commentators would see it as that, but no, they tend to see the result in terms of domestic politics, and go on about how the parties would be if we voted that way at a general election. Did last time, anyway.

Put it this way, 70% of the UK population don't like the EU, and there is NO mainstream party which has a matching policy for whom we can vote. So, UKIP when it doesn't matter in the hope that we can vote tory when it does. The forlorn hope, I should say.

Paul B

January 3rd, 2009 9:28am Report this comment

I commend Andy Leeds comments above. I voted for UKIP in the last Euro elections. I made a mistake, I will not repeat that again, although Nigel Farago does have a certain charm and appeal, how about offering him a job in the shadow cabinet DC?

Josh Barker

January 3rd, 2009 10:25am Report this comment

I voted Conservative in the last Euro Election , but since Cameron lied to us about taking the us out the EEP I will be voting UKIP in June Altough I am still a conservative member. I will also be campaging with my local UKIP branch for others to do the same .If any one attended the Bruges meeting at the Conservative conference will know UKIP isnt a wasted vote!

James Plant

January 3rd, 2009 9:46pm Report this comment

UNTILL the people of Britain have a say on the EU , UKIP wont go away and will do well in the EUROS .

wonkotsane

January 3rd, 2009 11:12pm Report this comment

David Camoron is a devoted eurofederalist and has surrounded himself with fellow eurofederalists in the party leadership. He is as committed to keeping the UK in the EU as the Lib Dems and Liebour are regardless of the fact that most of us want out. Camoron can't be trusted, the Tories can't be trusted. Every eurosceptic promise Camoron has made he has broken, a vote for the Tories is a wasted vote.

Steve fowler

January 4th, 2009 12:11am Report this comment

UKIP imploding i don't think so.

We been telling you people who don't dare vote for us that the EU is a problem to our country and guess what we've been right all along.

If you believe that the liblabcon will save you from the EU then carry on voting for them cause they won't save you, but UKIP is trying to save you.

Your choice folks?.

stewing from west yorks

February 23rd, 2009 11:27am Report this comment

It,s a problem! to vote or not. We,ve been told for years that not to vote is a slur on the many people who struggled to make it possible for us. The eu serves no one if not its MPs Indeed , that seems to be the main purpose to it,s existence!! I do think Farago is one of the few honest politicians in any parliament now.So , I am going to give him a try!!

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