Oborne: Talks have begun about a Lib-Lab coalition
James Forsyth 12:02pm
Peter Oborne’s column today is explosive stuff. He writes that secret talks have already begun between Labour and Liberal Democrat figures about a possible coalition. He reports that as a sweetener to any possible deal the Labour Whips office is already drumming up support for Ming Campbell as the next Speaker.
Oborne points to an article by Vince Cable suggesting that a national government might not be a bad idea and says:
“Throughout all my years of reporting politics I have rarely encountered such a blatant hint by a senior politician from an opposition party that he wants a job in government - and all the signs are that Gordon Brown is warming to the idea of Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer in a government of national unity.
However, the position of Nick Clegg (Cable's boss) is much less clear. I understand that Vince Cable's public musings about a coalition government were emphatically not sanctioned in advance by his leader. Furthermore, insiders speak of a growing split inside the Liberal Democrats over the issue.”
It is apparently Cable and Ming Campbell, an old friend of Brown, who are pushing for this deal. If Clegg were to go along with it, I suspect he would split his party. It is hard to imagine David Laws, for example, going into coalition with Labour and Lib Dem MPs in Southern seats would, generally, not be keen on this idea.
For Brown the appeal of this idea is that it would isolate the Tories. Brown would also appeal bold and such a move would give the impression that he appreciated how drastic the challenges facing the country are. However, there are pitfalls here for Brown as well. How would Darling and the other Labour figures who would have to be eased out or demoted to make way for Lib Dems feel and would letting the Tories become the sole opposition party in England actually help them?
Clegg has the most to lose from this deal. If Cable is to become Chancellor, Clegg would not the most senior Lib Dem in government, undermining his authority. If this coalition were not to work and the Tories were to form the next government, Clegg’s tenure as Lib Dem leader would be over and it would be hard to see how he could reestablish himself politically. For these reasons, I suspect that these talks will come to nothing. Although what Cable does personally is less predictable.
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Comments
Polly and Alice's mum
January 3rd, 2009 12:42pmHavent we been here before? Politics these days is like that film Ground Hog Day. Whats next? crawling to the IMF for a bailout?
I seem to remember that's what happened last time.
PS Remember the slogan "a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Labout"?
Oh happy days!
Ray
January 3rd, 2009 12:45pmCan someone tell me exactly which rat is joining which sinking ship?
Lance Grundy
January 3rd, 2009 12:46pmVote Liberal. Get Labour. Plus ca change…plus c’est la meme chose.
Fergus Pickering
January 3rd, 2009 12:51pmI can think of so many reasons why this would be disastrous for the Lib Dems that even their known bleeding stupidity would not be enough for them to agree with it. It wpuld mean, would it not, the constructing of a new party, New Labour Liberal Democrats, BEFORE the next election. And then they would have to WIN. Suppose they lost. Curtains for the Lib Dems. Heh heh heh.
Faceless Bureaucrat
January 3rd, 2009 12:54pmSo the Tories' slogan for the next General Election could be 'Vote Liberal Democrat, Get Labour' - that should guarantee a collapse in the Lib Dem vote within constituencies south of Birmingham.
The Laughing Cavalier
January 3rd, 2009 12:58pmMcDarling is showing dangerous signs of independent thought, not that that's saying much, so he will have to go. Cable would be an ideal replacement Chancellor in a McBroon government. He hasn't a clue so would have to do as he's told.
Travis Bickle
January 3rd, 2009 1:14pmI'd never trust the opportunistic Lib Dems to run a raffle. Always remember how they kept the last bereft Labour government in power during the 1970's. Scum.
Wilhelm
January 3rd, 2009 1:38pmThe liberals have always been whores selling themselves.
Austin Barry
January 3rd, 2009 1:48pmIf Labour and the Lib Dems go into an election with the public expection of a possible coalition, the welcome result would be the electoral death of the waste-of-space Lib Dems. And would any of us be sorry to see the end of this sanctimonious, insipid bunch of get-in-the-way, hand-wringing, mealy-mouthed onanists? Possibly, but only as one would mourn the death of an elderly, maiden aunt who had spent her years muttering pieties at those who actually engaged with life.
John Fuller
January 3rd, 2009 2:23pmVote Yellow, get Brown. Again.
strapworld
January 3rd, 2009 2:41pmWell, that guarantee's the South West will return en-block to the tories!
It will mean all the credible advances they have made in the past twenty years will all have been in vain. They will join Labour as Dead Parrot Parties.
My own view is that Vince Cable is looking for excuses to walk across the chamber to re-join his Labour Party. But people in England will revolt at yet another Scot- and one who has been thrown out as useless by his party- is the Speaker.
The English are quite sick to death of these incompetent Scots ruining what was once a great UNITED country.
Brown talks of a a government of all the talents yet he includes himself- the most talentless politician we have ever had.
Gawd Help us all.
David Lindsay
January 3rd, 2009 2:58pmThis is completely unsaleable to the Labour Party in the North of England, and in local government generally. They would rather go into coalition with the Tories, and actually do so a lot more often than the London media might think. Usually, that is specifically to keep out the Lib Dems.
LiverpoolTory
January 3rd, 2009 3:11pmClegg has already indicated that in the event of a hung parliament he would support the Tories in a coalition. Clegg is much closer to the Tories in terms of policy now anyway. The Tories should bang on about how this makes the Liberals mendacious and untrustworthy and therefore increase the scale of the Lib Dems southern wipeout. One comforting thought can be taken from this - Brown's plans for a Government of all the Talents always come to nothing.
Andy Leeds
January 3rd, 2009 3:35pmSounds more like this is a clever Brown ploy to kill off the LibDems. They would be fools to throw in their lot with Brown and Labour. But as they say . . .
seb
January 3rd, 2009 4:03pm@ The Laughing Cavalier
Whether Cable has a clue or not, he'd obviously find that he was in The Moron's cabinet merely to do as The Moron wished, which is currently Wendy's unenviable situation.
And how does one create a National Government in the Churchill-Attlee mode whilst excluding the party that, for the last year or so, has been ahead in the polls? The Moron might consider using the LibDems to keep himself in power. Listening to the LibDems? Co-operating with them? Not in a trillion years.
Ian C
January 3rd, 2009 4:23pmWatch the Lib Dems in southern marginals becoming Tories once again if this goes ahead. Bring it on - it would be the death of two fatuous parties and the election would be about those two banging on about how wonderful and effective big government is at a time when that patently is not so.
A gift of immeasurable portions could be brewing in the pot of Gordonian stupidity.
David Lindsay
January 3rd, 2009 4:50pm"banging on about how wonderful and effective big government is at a time when that patently is not so"
When did you last read a newspaper, Ian C?
As for Lib Dems going back to the Tories in the South East (the Tories are now as foreign in the South West as in the North East - no more so, but no less), who cares? The South East voted heavily Tory last time, and for what? It is not where elections are won and lost.
And even its fabled wealth is now only kept going by bailouts from taxpaying sectors such as the weak-pound-loving manufacturers.
Liberpool Tory is right of course. So the Tories need to ask themselves what it is about them that the Lib Dems - Eurofanatical, anti-family, pro-crime, pro-drugs, and amateurish - find so attractive about them.
Mike, Brighton
January 3rd, 2009 4:52pmUtterly toxic to the LibDems so clearly a Brown ploy.
David Parkert
January 3rd, 2009 5:15pmAny Lib Dim appointees would certainly be Brown yes-men and would do absolutely anything to prolong their brief ersatz sensation of power, exactly as they did upon the last occasion they were invited to join a dying Labour Government.
Electorally, such a move might only serve to confuse the voters and do more harm than good to both Clegg and Brown, so I can understand Clegg being against the idea.
The only possible scenario (and an extremely unlikely one, I hope!) would be if Brown decided that his best way of preserving the maximum number of Labour MPs, and a semblance of power at the next GE, would be in a Lab-Lib coalition, elected by proportional representation, after having already comitted us to joining the eurozone.
Hopefully, it is now too late for them to achieve this (even if it were technically, constitutionally possible) by forcing the necessary measures through Parliament before the next election. But, such was the disdain for both honour, honesty and democracy over the promised Lisbon referendum, by both Brown and Clegg that I would put nothing beyond the antics of that pair of political scallywags.
anon
January 3rd, 2009 5:39pmI was at a conference before Christmas at which Cable was the guest speaker. He was asked if he would serve in a Labour government. His response was that he would not serve in a Labour or coalition government, but would serve in a government of national unity. He said this might be warranted if the financial situation worsened.
David Parker
January 3rd, 2009 6:11pmStrapworld,
I often agree with (and enjoy) your comments, but I think you may be misjudging Ming Campbell.
In the context of the ethics of today's politicians,is the comment that he is a 'failed' one not more of a commendation rather than a condemnation?
The fact that he led a genuinely successful life, in more than one field, outside Parliament, including his legal one (as opposed to the courtesy title of QC formerly awarded to many MPs who would never have achieved that title outwith their political activities), should surely enhance, rather than detract from his eligibility for the role of Speaker.
Since, with any luck, the Lib-Dims are likely to hold the fewest seats in the next Parliament, I think that Ming would make a good choice for Speaker.
Tanuki
January 3rd, 2009 6:27pmI'm getting a strange but distinctly warm feeling at watching this latest political trainwreck emerge.
I think they call it Schadenfreude.
Message to the LibDems: Go back to your constituencies - and prepare for oblivion.
molesworth 1
January 3rd, 2009 6:37pmThis is being discussed, at length, over at PB.com & LibDemVoice has a poll running on wether Cable should take the job - currently running at 3/1 against. It seems that not even the LD's are dumb enough to get into bed with GB.
F W
January 3rd, 2009 7:06pmOh pah-lease. This is so obviously just a Tory "fluff" story designed to cause trouble and distract from the fact that all the Tories have to say on the economy is from George Osbourne.
I mean, the story is from Peter Oborne for crying out loud. What next? - Peter Mandelson says the Tories are going into coalition with Sinn Fein and you all believe it?
Carol-Ann
January 3rd, 2009 7:11pmIf this scenario were to actually happen the Tories would have to go nuclear and start addressing the issue of England voting majority Tory but being run and having policies imposed by Labour and Lib Dems that are mainly elected in Scotland and Wales. Surely there would have to be an English parliment created because the majority of the population of England would not have voted for the policies that were being enacted andthat is not democracy. My fear is Cameron has not got the guts or the where with all to fight for England.
J H Holloway
January 4th, 2009 1:33amSurely the real story here is Brown's borderline-manic desire to stay in power?
Did nobody twig that when Broon finally gave the go-ahead recently for the Tories to talk to civil servants about taking over, the Liberals got the same treatment because 'a hung parliament was now expected' and the 1970s tomes 'were being dusted down' by Sir Humphrey?
The problem for Brown is that 12 months from now, everything he ever threw at the Tories - 3 million unemployed, slumping economy, businesses wiped out - will have happened on his watch.
It could lay Labour out for another 20 years and it will be on Brown's head. This scenario is beyond Brown's wildest fears.
Prepare for every trick in the book from the Great Helmsman, including trying to turn the Government from Labour to National as the slump intensifies.
This stuff from Orborne is part of the Brown run-up plan to try and form a coalition with the Liberals and run for it in June.
It's also worth remembering Brown changed the law so he could move the May 09 elections back a month, closer to the recess, to protect himself from a leadership bid if he gets hammered.
Jonny Oates
January 5th, 2009 8:12amI wouldn't take any of this seriously. Peter Oborne is about as unconnected to Liberal Democrat thinking as it is possible to be. The implication of the article is that he has some sort of inside track in fact he has no track inside or otherwise. This is just mischief making presumably inspired by Downing Street.