Another Brown job
Fraser Nelson 12:56pm
Will anyone take Gordon Brown’s claim to create up to 100,000 jobs seriously? As a statistician will tell you, “up to” includes the number zero. And as any economist will tell you, government can’t create jobs. The best it can do is move jobs, from the private to the public sector via tax – or from the future to the present, via debt. And in this case, I suspect it’s all a hoax anyway. Sure, Brown can hire some builders to renovate schools. But first of all, how many of his 100,000 were going to be hired by the state anyway? And of those who weren’t, can he be so sure they were all otherwise heading for the dole queue? It’s all a nonsense designed purely to enable him to trot out the line “we are creating 100,000 new jobs while the Tories would do nothing”. For Brown’s plan to work, no one must challenge his figures. And I suspect no one will.
It’s fairly easy to tell that he’s fibbing. Each month, the Treasury asks a large number of independent forecasters of solid repute for their unemployment forecasts, and publishes the results. Their December forecast was for claimant unemployment to surge from 1.05m to 1.6m by the final quarter of this year. How many of them will downgrade, as a result of Brown’s claim? I suspect as many as upgraded their economic growth forecasts to account for his fiscal stimulus: that is to say, none. Brown’s utterings are regarded as economically irrelevant, taken seriously only in the fantasy world of Westminster. How lucky he is that politicians’ figures are never audited or checked, and that they are held to a far lower standard of accuracy than the City firms he is so fond of chastising.
PS Brown also tells the Observer he wants to help “everybody who is genuinely trying to pay their mortgage back”. So I assume as a matter of urgency he will tomorrow instruct the state-owned Northern Rock to stop charging penalty rates of interest to the 200,000 of its mortgage holders too poor to get another deal?



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Del Preston
January 4th, 2009 1:21pm Report this comment"For Brown's plan to work, no one must challenge his figures. And I suspect no one will."
Certainly not the BBC, who have done their dutiful bit by carrying our Supreme Leader's directive at length complete with admiring mugshot.
Our Government and our tax-funded broadcaster rely on each other for their continued existence.
It's a dangerous combination.
Polly and Alice's mum
January 4th, 2009 1:22pm Report this comment"It is fairly easy to see that he is fibbing...."
Well, doh! Whenever he opens his mouth he is fibbing.
Liz Brown
January 4th, 2009 1:26pm Report this commentSmacks of British jobs for British people - of those that were created, most went to immigrants - and the last thing the British people need is more public employees, which is without doubt what these will be
Lance Grundy
January 4th, 2009 1:38pm Report this commentOn Labour's past form about 80,000 of those 100,000 jobs [if 'created' at all] will be filled by immigrants.
TGF UKIP
January 4th, 2009 1:52pm Report this commentHe was also at it again with his "We are in a better position because we have lower debt than any other major economy." Then when Marr mentioned 58%in a couple of years, he countered with US at 80%, France already at 58% and Japan and Italy at over 100%.
Going to be interesting to see if Cameron challenges not only Brown's Enron accounting but, more particularly, Marr for letting him get away with it.
Will Dave actually pluck up the courage to mix it and say something like "and andrew you really shouldn't keep letting him get away with porkies like that."
And on the other hand pigs might fly.
Verity
January 4th, 2009 2:26pm Report this comment"up to includes the number zero". Ha ha ha ha ha ha! V good!
Enron Gordon. Thank you TGI UKIP. I hope it gets picked up.
JimBob
January 4th, 2009 2:32pm Report this commentBrown misspoke. He meant to say:
“we are creating 100,000 non jobs while the Tories would do nothing”
Another cunning way to increase the public sector guaranteed vote for him and his chums while offering zero value for the taxpayer.
Verity
January 4th, 2009 3:03pm Report this commentInstead of the Iron Chancellor, for 11 years, Britain had the Enron Chancellor.
Now we've got the South Sea Bubble Prime Minister! His plans to create, out of thin air, 100,000 new jobs are the South Sea Bubble writ large.
Verity
January 4th, 2009 3:03pm Report this commentInstead of the Iron Chancellor, for 11 years, Britain had the Enron Chancellor.
Now we've got the South Sea Bubble Prime Minister! His plans to create, out of thin air, 100,000 new jobs are the South Sea Bubble writ large.
Chuck Unsworth
January 4th, 2009 4:43pm Report this comment'Create'? Possibly.
But how long will they last, and how many others (the 'old' jobs) will be lost in the meantime?
The only thing Brown has created in a decade is a major economic disaster.
TGF UKIP
January 4th, 2009 4:47pm Report this commentFraser, have just been over to the NOW site to read your column and you're not there. Sunday off or have you parted company? I hope not, you're much more down to my level over there.
J
January 4th, 2009 4:50pm Report this commentI think he will achieve this partly because his DWP behemoth is already fiddling job entries through its Local Employment Partnership which essentially lays claims to job entries without doing anything other than getting respective employers to sign up to it.
In our area there is one medium-sized seasonal work employer that regularly takes on up to 200 people a year. This has always been done with the help of the local jobcentre. Last year and this year will be no different but for the Local Employment Partnership which will now suddenly catagorise these jobs as created by the LEP.
This is going on up and down the country with thousands of employers who would have taken people on anyway.
At some point a minister will stand up and acknowledge the huge success of LEP when in fact it achieved nothing, but cost a fortune in administration and bureaucracy.
Tp
January 4th, 2009 7:02pm Report this commentPS Brown also tells the Observer he wants to help “everybody who is genuinely trying to pay their mortgage back”
. . .so I also assume ,as a matter of urgency, that he will also instruct the high court to suspend the appeal by the likes of the greedy Nationwide, and repay the millions of people they currently owe illegally taken bank charges from?!!
Bill Quango MP
January 4th, 2009 7:58pm Report this commentHmmm..
I understood that the school refurb contracts went out in November to be completed during the coming half term.
The money has not yet been agreed and I understand is to come from existing school maintenance budgets.
If Mr Bean announces an increase to budgets then the work will definitely go through, instead of 'highly likely' as it is now.
But it will "create" zero jobs. At best tide over small contractors for a few weeks.
Andy Nicholas
January 4th, 2009 8:34pm Report this commentJocky McBroon lying? Really? what next Jaqui Spliffs a fascist?
Fraser Nelson
January 4th, 2009 8:36pm Report this commentTGF, thanks for yr concern but i was off for a week! Just got back to London today. And you should buy the NOTW - saves you reading all the follow-ups on Monday.
Verity - that "zero" line isn't mine. I borrowed it from the great Martin Waller, who does the Business diary at The Times. A first class wordsmith. I used to sit next to him when I was a teaboy, and he has this newspaper cutting on his computer saying 'Waller writes as well as he can, and believes every testosterone-sodden word of it".
NotaSheep
January 4th, 2009 9:29pm Report this commentThe actual quotation that I have seen is that Gordon Brown promised "to create probably 100,000 additional jobs over the next period of time". What period of time? So it's probably 100,00 jobs over an unspecified period of time. Wow! Maybe the media could analyse their glorious leader's words rather than just report the spin in future.
Ian Olive
January 4th, 2009 10:07pm Report this commentBrown trots out statistics, numbers and percentages which he probably believes, but have little foundation in reality. He is clearly in denial and the only reason his own party haven't dumped him is because nobody really wants the job.
So the best thing to do is to let him get on with it and in the meantime get as much into the pension fund as possible whilst extracting as much as is humanly possible out of the MP's expenses account.
Well wouldn't you if you were a labour MP in the full knowledge that the game is up and it's just a matter of time to the next election. I bet there will be huge sighs of nulab relief as they graciously hand over their seats folowing the returning officer's short statements...
Darth David
January 4th, 2009 11:10pm Report this commentFirst off I have no problem with most jobs going to 'immigrants'. When we went to America, Canada, Australia, we didn't seem to have the same views of locals first then. Likewise if you want to expel all our Polish workers fine but take back all the elderly English people in Spain. Globalisation happens. But in the case of the Polish, its not forever. Suck it up. Maybe actually enjoy the fact that our kids can go to multicultural schools now.
As for GB creating jobs why can't he? Can't he just spend it on infrastructure? Bringing forward money from future is still creating jobs, either now or later.
Altho again would be great if we had all that gold he sold about now.
Susan Hill
January 4th, 2009 11:36pm Report this commentIt`s like the Sales. 80% off. With 'up to' in fairy writing.
Verity
January 4th, 2009 11:41pm Report this commentFraser, whoever wrote it, it is a great line and I am going to pinch it.
On Brown, I think they know they've got a madman at the wheel and no one wants to wrestle it away from him, because at least the wreck will be blamed on the driver, and not them.
The Enron Chancellor morphs into the South Sea Bubble Prime Minister.
Watervole
January 4th, 2009 11:49pm Report this comment100,000 won't do it - hasn't he heard, we're heading for 3m unemployed, so the great mentalist needs to add a few more noughts to his fantasy to make it more credible.....
Matt
January 5th, 2009 12:35am Report this comment100,000 jobs.
Where? What sectors? What industries?
Insulating houses was mentioned (during his last 'we will create jobs' statement.
Will this create 100,000 jobs? I doubt it very much.
30,000 Woolworth staff, all of the MFI staff. There's two sets of people needing real jobs, ASAP. Not pie-in-the sky Brownian non-jobs.
And placements on training schemes do not count as jobs, Mr Brown.
Just so as you know for the future.
Common Sense
January 5th, 2009 7:26am Report this commentFraser, the first time I realised the significance of "up to" was when I saw an advert for a pheromone spray: "Buy this spray and sleep with up to three women each day".
Didn't take a lot of working out, really.
See you in the pub.
seb
January 5th, 2009 8:47am Report this commentWho, it is alleged, said these words to John Edmonds of the GMB in 1993?
"I don't believe in promising full employment. It gives the impression of a government creating worthless jobs at great cost."
First prize for whoever guesses the right answer is a week's stay at the Kirkcaldy Hilton. Second prize - two weeks!
MrDavies
January 5th, 2009 9:25am Report this commenthe wants to help “everybody who is genuinely trying to pay their mortgage back”
Does anyone know where I have to apply to get my certificate showing that I am Genuinely Attempt To Repay My Mortagage (GATRMM)?
Perhaps the GATRMM will be included in the incredibly useful HIPs package.
RW
January 5th, 2009 10:14am Report this commentThe quote begins "I want to show how we will be able to create..." Classic Brownian linguistic sleight of hand. Notice that he isn't actually promising to create anything, he's only saying he'll show us how he is able to do so. Probably.
Provided we don't pin him down to anything specific, and let him do it over his favourite auto-extruding temporal unit, the Next Period of Time, which can be as long as he wants it to be.
Characteristic grandiose verbal confidence trickery. Man's a charlatan.
hadrian
January 5th, 2009 12:48pm Report this commentRW- 'the man's a charlatan'- perfectly correct: he's a socialist, statist which amounts to the same thing. Cloud cuckoo land, utopia, nowhere, fanatasy world. He can afford to live in it ( for now) while the rest who truly suffer from what's happened on his watch will be swept neatly under his fraying carpet, out of sight, out of mind.
Of course his schemes need challenging, which, as I've said before, is why we are supposed to have an Opposition. They're there to lead, so, if they cannot manage it they scarcely deserve to oust him. However, what Broon cannot defy forever will be the reality of the recession as it bites more and more deeply. Bungling Broon will eventually be shown to be Canute Broon too. Let's hope by then most people wil have lost patience with the buffoon and stopped listening to his nonsense.
Ahmed Resistance
January 6th, 2009 7:38am Report this commentIsnt it obviouse ? He is going to deny benefits to thousands of people who cannot find work ( because there isnt any.)
Then he is going to deny benefits to the disabled and sick who cannot work (he is already doing this.)
Voila ! unemployment figures reduced = jobs created.
Of course , everyone will support him on this - because the media told us that everyone on benefits is really a scrounger.
Stupid government for stupid people.
OlafTheViking
January 6th, 2009 9:25am Report this commentLet us remember that King Canute (or Knut) was in fact a wise man who pulled that stunt to show his opposition to flattery.
p.s.
Brown is of course the very antithesis of a wise man and his words seek but to deceive.
Let all who know this correct those that don't!
hadrian
January 6th, 2009 12:40pm Report this commentOlaf- thanks for that piece of fascinating history on Canute/Knut. I must confess I hadn't ever realised he'd done it as an illustration of the limitations of kings and governments. In that case Brown is definitely not wise as he'll sit in state holding back the tidal wave of reality and unlike most common sense folk around him actually believe his own rhetoric.When the wave crashes into him he cannot complain he wasn't warned- except to the lackeys in his own circle.
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