Targeting Iran
Peter Hoskin 11:33am
I missed Robert Kaplan's latest dispatch yesterday, but this passage is still worth flagging up:
"How do you fight unconventional, sub-state armies empowered by ideas? You undermine them subtly over time, or you crush them utterly, brutally. Israel, unable to tolerate continued rocket attacks on its people, has decided on the latter course. Our own diplomacy with Iran now rests on whether or not Israel succeeds. We need to create leverage before we can negotiate with the clerical regime, and that leverage can only come from an Israeli moral victory—one that leaves Hamas sufficiently reeling to scare even the pro-Iranian Syrians from coming to its aid. In defense of its own territorial integrity, Israel has, in effect, launched the war on the Iranian empire that President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, in particular, can only have contemplated."When I visited Israel earlier last year, the question that most seemed to occupy the political classes was how to deal with Iran; particularly in light of fears that the theocratic regime will go nuclear during 2009. There's an inevitable sense, then, that the Israeli operation in Gaza is intended to send a message to Tehran, and that it can even be regarded as a first, preemptive strike against the "Iranian empire".
This makes it even more crucial that Israel comes out on top. Some sort of Israeli victory against Hamas - be it moral or military, partial or total - will surely improve the West's hand in any diplomatic wranglings with Iran, and could thereby limit further destabilisation in the wider Middle East. So far as the long-term's concerned, defeat could well encourage the opposite. As Kaplan so neatly puts it: "If he is smart, President-elect Barack Obama will now be quietly rooting for Israel".
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BrianSJ
January 6th, 2009 11:59am Report this commentOne of the Coffeehouse writers said that Obama would have a honeymoon, an idea I refuted. This is his honeymoon starting early. There will be a lot more such activity to follow.
Austin Barry
January 6th, 2009 12:47pm Report this commentThis could be an opportune moment for Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilties at Bushehr. The IDF and IAF are fully operational, Bush is still President and Al-Beeb and the Livingstone/Lennox/Galloway axis of idiocy already upset.
Simon
January 6th, 2009 2:21pm Report this commentHow unsurprisingly vile. How many children do have to you murder in order to prevent "terrorism"? What a grubby little colony Israel is.
Martin D
January 6th, 2009 4:02pm Report this commentIndeed. Burned civilians in Gaza will show Iran the rules of the game Israel wants to play. Be very afraid.
Chris
January 6th, 2009 4:28pm Report this commentNone, Simon. The child-murdering is done in Israel by Hamas, and in Gaza by Hamas deliberately putting its civilians in harm's way. What a grubby and stupid little mind you have.
Norman
January 6th, 2009 7:44pm Report this commentThe notion that a “defeat” of Hamas will give US more leverage with Iran is exactly upside down. Israel’s unrestrained massacre of innocent civilians will strengthen hardliners in Iran, and Iran’s condemnation of Israel and support for Hamas create greater support for Iran across the Middle East. Military escalation will accomplish nothing but misery for all. Isn’t it time we tried realistic negotiation in both Palestine and Iran, rather than trying to force people to their knees?
dilys
January 6th, 2009 8:21pm Report this commentI am sure that the capture by Hamas of a single Israeli soldier, dead or alive, will be blown up to be a huge victory by you media types.
Lou Dacht
January 6th, 2009 8:29pm Report this commentYes Simon, how unsurprisingly naiive to omit the months of Hamas missiles into Israel.
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