Obama's Iran calculation
James Forsyth 7:33am
The New York Times reports this morning that President Bush rejected an Israeli request for bunker-busting bombs, refuelling capacity and over-flight rights that would have allowed it to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is unclear whether the Israelis were actually planning a strike or whether they merely wanted to emphasise to the Americans that they would act if Washington would not.
Tehran’s rate of progress towards nuclear status means that Iran will probably be a nuclear power, or at least nuclear-ready, by the end of Obama’s first term unless action—whether military, diplomatic, or economic—is taken to stop it. The New York Times says that US covert-ops against Iran’s nuclear programme have been stepped up. But it appears that there is considerable scepticism within the intelligence community about how effective they can be.
We know from the campaign that Obama is prepared to engage in direct diplomacy with Tehran. The earlier he does this, the more serious it will suggest that he is about addressing this challenge as all diplomatic options will have to be exhausted—and seen to be exhausted—before other methods become acceptable to public and international opinion. This report reminds us that if American will not deal with it, the Israelis might—understandably given the threats that Iran has made against Israel—take matters into their own hands.
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Comments
Forlornehope
January 11th, 2009 10:14amMany, perhaps most, people in Iran and Syria would like their countries to be much more like Turkey. Israel might then have some real security. How is bombing Iran, or Gaza for that matter, going to bring that day any closer?
JONNY
January 11th, 2009 11:20amBefore taking out the Iran primitive or non-existent nuclear capability, isn't it time the Israelis came clean about their own illegal and highly developed one?
tom
January 11th, 2009 2:47pm"This report reminds us that if American will not deal with it, the Israelis might—understandably given the threats that Iran has made against Israel". Is this guys really a journalist. Your brain must be the size of a pea. Israel is a nuclear power and obtained the weapons Illegally. India, Pakistan, China blah blah blah. The list is endless. Go to University, or better still get out to the palestine and actually have a look at whatīs happening before you spout off this nonesense. I have, and it isnīt very pretty.
porkbelly
January 11th, 2009 4:26pmExcept, "tom", that Iran has vowed to wipe Israel off the face of the map. Israel's nuclear capacity is strictly deterrent or it would have publicly disclosed its existence long ago. Iran's will surely be used as a means to advance its agenda of becoming an Islamist regional power, and since the basis for nuclear strategy is a balance of rationality and irrationality they will have the latter always in their favor.
What is more Obama will only have one thing to negotiate with them: a balance of power between Iran and Israel (otherwise known as throwing Israel under the bus). It won't be pretty.
Translation guy
January 11th, 2009 11:02pmExcept Ahmadinejad never said that Israel must be wiped off the face of the map. He was quoting Khomeini and what he said was literally: "The Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time". See, regime and not Israel. Big difference.