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Wednesday, 21st January 2009

Obama will be more hawkish than Europe expects

James Forsyth 8:13pm

Barack Obama is the first Democrat to be Commander in Chief in the post 9/11 era. The election of a Democrat was a necessary requirement for the emergence of a new, settled American foreign policy for this time. You can’t have a bi-partisan foreign policy consensus when only one party knows the foreign policy challenges from the inside.

Certainly the Bush administration made mistakes on foreign policy. It over-reacted in certain areas and implemented good ideas badly in others. But I suspect that there will be a more continuity between the two administrations than most people expect. The threats facing America have not changed with the departure of George W. Bush and the arrival of President Obama.

Obama has called Middle Eastern leaders today and will meet with General Petraeus, Gates and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs later today. Rather than getting bogged down in the quest for a solution to the Israeli Palestinian problem, something that won’t happen while Hamas is in control in Gaza, it is to be hoped that Obama spends his time and capital on Afghanistan and Iran. In a testament to the progress made in Iraq thanks to the surge, that country is now a second-tier issue for the president.

The new president would be well advised take advantage of his European honeymoon to demand troops without caveats for Afghanistan and a commitment to take a far tougher line with Iran if direct diplomacy with Tehran fails, as it probably will even though it has to be tried.

Even in his famous anti-war speech in 2002, Obama was at pains to stress he was not a deluded dove. David Miliband will not be the last foreign minister in Europe to find himself surprised and shown up by Obama’s tough stances.

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skooch

January 21st, 2009 8:55pm Report this comment

Have I, en passant, just heard Ken suggesting that Cameron shouldn't play the right-wing nationalist card against Obama?

Top story on Sky at 8.45?

Oh Lordy. Hope I've got that wrong.

TGF UKIP

January 21st, 2009 9:34pm Report this comment

Very, very optimistic, James. He may talk tough from time to time for political reasons and do the easy things like sending more forces to Afghanistan but as the enemies of the US will quickly suss out, it will be no more than that.

More than ever now the Democrats are now a no war at any price party and you have only to look at who he selected as VP - Biden who opposed even the first Gulf War. As for your previous contentions of Hillary the Hawk, I'm afraid I don't buy that either. Clinton political ambition is by no means expired and Hillary certainly ain't going to upset the Democrat pacifist constituency.

What's going to be most interesting, though, is how quickly he throws away the huge victory Bush and Petraeus scored in Iraq.

porkbelly

January 21st, 2009 9:40pm Report this comment

More wishful thinking. Did you notice he has already halted all Guantanamo prosecutions? Any odds on when he sets them all free? His will be a classic liberal foreign policy based on the assumption that all divides can be breached if only everyone would get together and jaw about their differences until they realize that we are all brothers, amen, and much tears and hugging to follow. Looking forward to seeing how this goes over with Putin, Hamas, Iran, et al. Not to mention Europe, which loves him to death but will never ever send troops to Afghanistan no matter how many photo ops he promises Sarko, Merkel, etc. Eventually, like Clinton, he will tire of the frustrations foreign policy and turn his attention inward. And what followed Clinton's benign neglect of national security? Oh yes - 9/11.

Anna

January 21st, 2009 10:16pm Report this comment

Whatever else Obama is or is not, he's an American. And Americans don't lie down under a foreign yoke. Unlike Britain, which not only lies down under the foreign yoke of the EU, but rolls over to have its tummy tickled by the appalling legislation emanating therefrom.

Mark Solomon

January 21st, 2009 10:55pm Report this comment

Get over the paranoia Anna. We joined the EU voluntarily and that decision was confirmed in a referendum. The issue was settled 30 years ago-time to move on. If we don't like the laws from Brussels we can simply not implement them like all the other member states do, as Brussels has no enforcement mechanism. The thing is, the UK government LIKES the laws Brussels passes, often gold plates them, but just loves the idea of being able to blame the EU for its own transgressions. Wise up!

TrevorsDen

January 21st, 2009 11:13pm Report this comment

You are talking garbage. - Go on I'll be charitable; you are looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

What you really should be saying is that the Democrats knew what Bush was doing was right (at least in principle) but made political capital out of it at the expense of their nations interest.

Now in power they will continue with virtually the same policy.

Lets see how these nuances go down in the caves of the North West Frontier.

Believe me planning for the new terrorist attacks are well under way.

Verity

January 22nd, 2009 2:25am Report this comment

Anna writes: "Whatever else Obama is or is not, he's an American."

You sure?

Verity

January 22nd, 2009 2:33am Report this comment

Mark Solomon: "We joined the EU voluntarily and that decision was confirmed in a referendum."

WHAT?

Baz

January 22nd, 2009 5:36am Report this comment

David Miliband Hasn't the brains
to surprised, how this moron got to be foreign secretary only the Lord knows because nobody else
does. I forgot one maybe Eunuch Brown.

Austin Barry

January 22nd, 2009 8:51am Report this comment

I see that Banana Boy Milibean has upset the Indian Government with his sixth-form 'arrogance' and 'aggression'. This little twerp really should be fired and returned to his ink-monitor duties.

Ian C

January 22nd, 2009 9:56am Report this comment

Agree with your sentiments James - apart from talking to Iran; it's been tried and tried so he is wasting precious time and therefore leverage - but TGF's scepticism is warranted. We are now having to play celebrity presidential politics until he is allowed to (re?)join the human race.

Craig

January 22nd, 2009 10:41am Report this comment

Yes, of course Verity. Obama is not an American, he's an Arab terrorist. That nonsense worked so well for Sarah halfwit, didn't it?

Fergus Pickering

January 22nd, 2009 10:43am Report this comment

He can't be too hawkish for me.

g lee

January 22nd, 2009 11:10am Report this comment

Pity someone can't spell Reykjavik....

Ronnie

January 22nd, 2009 11:21am Report this comment

'...huge victory Bush and Petraeus scored in Iraq.'

TGF UKIP, I think you should have a word with that Hamas bloke in Damascus who thinks his boys just defeated Israel.

He's mad too.

Tiberius

January 22nd, 2009 2:11pm Report this comment

It's really all about oil (sorry Iran), and if Obama wants to short circuit all the side-shows, that's where he'll concentrate his fire.

Verity

January 22nd, 2009 2:49pm Report this comment

Tiberius - The towering naiveté of your post is alarming. Oil is a powerful weapon in the fight, but the fight is not about oil. Any more than WWII was about Spitfires.

Meditate on it.

David Preiser

January 22nd, 2009 3:55pm Report this comment

TGF UKIP has it right. President Obamessiah and his handlers are well aware of the world-wide political capital they will gain by freeing every single Guantanamo inmate, and withdrawing all troops from Iraq. Suddenly, everyone will start to suck up to...er... play ball with the US. Sec. of State Hillary is only interested in the spotlight of the world stage. The actual consequences of her actions mean very little, so you can all forget about any real hawkishness.

If anything goes wrong, everyone will just continue their mantra of the last eight years: It's all Bush's fault! Same goes for the economy. The new President can do no wrong, because the Narrative has been set in stone.

The very fact that both Mr. Brown and Mr. Cameron are scrambling to ride the Obamessiah coat-tails should make all of you think twice about who your leaders are. All of you were wailing about Blair being "Bush's Poodle" for years, and now the leaders of both the major parties are about to get on their knees to play Obama's Maltese, but nobody is objecting. Nice going.

strapworld

January 22nd, 2009 4:00pm Report this comment

The referendum was NOT for the EU it was for something called the COMMON MARKET! We have not, since that one referendum, been asked, at any time, for our authority to negotiate away our sovereignty on anything since.

Heath threw our Fishing Industry away and thousands of British Jobs. Once we had control of the seas around our island. Now we have no control and fishing is determined by the EU.

That is just one of many industries lost to the EU.

Look at Farming. Once this Country was self sufficient. Now farmers cannot use their farms for the crops which grew well on them. They are not allowed by the EU. We need to import most of our foodstocks now!

So much tripe is written by people with absolutely no knowledge and for this 'Mark Solomon' to pontificate when he obviously knows absolutely nothing - but is prepared to believe what he is told by his Liberal Democrat leaders- is just quite amazing.

What hope has our Country got when people like him have views like that!

But, never forget, that the European Union has been determined by people with a far bigger agenda. The CIA are considered to be part architects of the EU and we will not be Obama's pal if we want out!!

Ronnie

January 22nd, 2009 4:29pm Report this comment

But Verity, if the Saudis didn't have oil and the subsequent investments that they have made on the basis of oil reveneue, do you think that we would have kow-towed to them so much over the years and ended up where we are now?

They fund terrorism. We know this and yet we do nothing about it other than try to profit from their huge wealth.

They corrupt our largest companies and yet we halt serious fraud investigations into these activities at their behest.

We are terrified that they will turn off the tap and now they are underwriting our bank bail outs, using the money that oil has brought them to do so.

We dare not offend them... because of oil.

Ah, the Spitfire...

Ronnie

January 22nd, 2009 4:33pm Report this comment

Strapworld, if as you say, the CIA were part architects of the Common Market/EU, why do you imagine they wanted it to succeed?

What real purpose did the Marshall Plan serve? What would logically come after it for the same reason?

Verity

January 22nd, 2009 5:24pm Report this comment

I don't think the CIA were part architects of the Sovietesque horrors of the EU, but people close to them were. The Bretton Woods group, for example. The EU is part of the New World agenda ... in other words, a bunch of destructive drawing room socialists set on changing the world according to their myopic vision of man.

It's part of The New World Order and has to be stopped, stat.

TGF UKIP

January 22nd, 2009 6:11pm Report this comment

Strapworld, the US certainly did have a big hand in setting up the original Coal & Steel Community with Dean Acheson and John J McCloy being its principal drivers along with Jean Monnet. It's also true that a politically integrated Europe has long been a wish of the US foreign policy establishment.

However, my belief is that this became certainly not the view of the Bush Administration as they discovered by bitter experience the true nature of modern day "Old Europe."

Now, I believe the original foreign policy establishment ambition will rule again with the real aim of this Democrat Administration to turn America into a European style social democracy.

But at least that should ensure that Dave will feel right at home with them.

Tiberius

January 22nd, 2009 8:28pm Report this comment

Verity; please can we have dinner sometime. There's so much I want to explain to you...

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