Labour has lost the next election already 

Verity

You don't have to be British to be prime minister, I think. Am I right? If so, I could send an email to Sarah Palin and let her know there's an opening for a conservative head of government coming up ...

Rex Burr

Whichever party paints a realistic picture of post recession Britain before the election is likely to loose. It will be too unpalatable to attract voters to the fold unless they are skilled enough to engender a Dunkirk Spirit.
They will have to lie to get in and I fear that Brown is better at that, if he is still PM at that time, because he really believes his own rhetoric.

jaydeeaitch

Sorry Verity, we need someone with brains to get us out of Brown's sh*t.

strapworld

Ken Clarke for Prime Minister!

(just to get Verity going!)

Thomas Cussans

Blimey, welcome to the real world Matthew. Perhaps you have been subject to (the victim of?) too many Downing Street wooings to twig what has been blindingly obvious to all the rest of us for a long, long time: that Brown is the deadest of dead meat.

But your claim that Brown made 'masterly use of the levers of office ... making of sheer kinetic energy a claim to authority and intellectual credibility' is about the stupidest thing I have ever had the misfortune to read.

To the extent that it is comprehensible at all, it appears to suggest the working of some mighty political intellect rather than, as has always been the case, the blunderings of a panicked lunatic appalled that he had at last been seen through.

Can I suggest that, in future, you stay a long, long way from 'special' Downing Street briefings?

Still, glad that, however dimly, you seem to have seen the light at last.

Polly Peachum

If only it were that simple! Blair's unpopularity paved the way for an opposition leader to replace him...Gordon Brown. All Labour need do is create a similar rift once more (cue a Miliband or two)and sell us their new leader as the antidote to all our problems.

Steve.W

Gordon Brown, Leader of the 'do nothing right party', is that exaggerated savagery?

mac

"I have also long thought that there has been a bipolar quality to [much writing about] Gordon Brown".

Some pundits might prefer to write the sentence without the words in parentheses, Mr d'Ancona.

TrevorsDen

Verity - if you must be fatuous, do it in private.

There has been nothing 'naively optimistic' about Browns claims. They have been crudely self serving.
It is supremely ironic that his 'British Jobs for British Workers' piece of self serving propaganda is quite possibly going to administer his coup de grace.

The sight in the news of trade unionists throwing Browns words back in his face is surely quite terminal for his prospects.

Super Blue

Verity,

You could try, but Britain may be too warm for her!

Bishop Hill

Why does David Cameron coming to power do nothing to instil any confidence in me?

Mark - not Peter M

The "Brown bounce" was always a nonsense. The recession was looming and he was going to get rumbled. As you say, the question now is not whether he loses, but when.
You might want to remind yourslef of some of the posts here from 5-6 weeks ago - Mr Forsyth was under Mandy's spell and all over the place.

TGF UKIP

Last summer when the Cameron Tories were 20+ points in the lead, I counseled against gloating and received the predictable brickbats from the Coffee House Cameron Crazies. Lo and behold, though, a few months later the lead was down to mid single figures and the "Brown bounce" was in full swing.

Similarly now, we have Dave's Numero Uno cheerleader, the Dear Editor, predictably predicting it's all over and Dave is the new PM.

Well, just like last Summer, I wouldn't be so sure and for exactly the same reason which is there seems to be precious little enthusiasm for Dave's Tories even though Joe Public seems to be mightily pissed off with Brown's Labour.

This is demonstrated by any close analysis of individual polling issues behind the headline numbers and what really does say everything about the Cameron Crazies' desperation is the alacrity with which Mr d'Ancona seizes upon a Dave/Boy George lead on the economy, albeit still only in single figures, despite the very deep economic doo doo we're in.

This sceptical view of the Cameron Tories position was borne out this morning on The Week in Westminster by a pollster from Populus and the BBC's polling research guy (OK! I know, I know!) who both had the view that what the polls were saying was that the Tory lead had more to do with disenchantment with Labour rather than any warmly positive embrace of the Cameron Tories.

However, the point neither of them made and which the Dear Editor also predictably chose to ignore was the geographical breakdown of the polling figures which shows the entire Tory headline lead to be a product of their massive lead in the South. Not exactly a healthy political position for someone aspiring to be PM of a United Kingdom.

But where does all this leave me and people like me? Well, we bow to nobody, especially the Tiberii, in our loathing for the evil Brown and his disgusting party, but neither can we muster the slightest enthusiasm for a greener, cleaner, lighter brand of the same generic product which is social democracy.

Finally, however, can I commend the Dear Editor for his courage in so revelling in their Labour Lordships' sleaze given not only the multiple mentions of Tories in the Truscott video but the venal, grasping bunch of political part-timers that Dave calls his Shadow Cabinet.

Against such an opposition with such a "leadership," if I were Gordon, I certainly wouldn't be giving up as yet.

Hysteria

Well Verity - it's certainly a thought - we could probably dream up the perfect team - Sarah, Glen Beck, Petraeus, Pickles. Hague if he can be bothered, Redwood etc

God knows we need some significant ideas and leaderhip PDQ !

Andy M

@Verity
Sarah Palin you say? Count me in.

Morus

Verity - you are correct. The PM is whomsoever the Monarch believes has the confidence of the House of Commons. Therefore the PM can be any member of the Commons or the House of Lords, and need not be British.

Nationality qualifications for both houses indicate one need be British, Irish, or a citizen of the Commonwealth. So Sarah Palin is out, but Jenny Shipley (former PM of New Zealand) could be given a peerage and chosen!

Austin Barry

What will come first, the end of the Brown government or massive civil disorder? No doubt the mandarins are poring over the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 while the stocks of tear gas and baton charges are being replenished. The usually sour air of Cabinet Office Briefing Room A must be electric with anxiety. And will the centre hold as this rough beast its hour come round at last slouches towards Whitehall to be born? Don't bet what remains of your pension on it.

Radka

Verity - Do you have one of those Action Man pull-strings at the back of your head?

Go back to Labourlist

NickR

Verity, have you not been listening?

British jobs for British people.

Do try to keep up :-)

Verity

jaydeeaitch - One manages to be elected Governor of the biggest and most natural resources-rich state in the United States, without having outstanding political intelligence? How does that work? I might like to try it myself.

I would have added, "and is invited to be the Vice Presidential candidate without brains?" - but then remembered Joe Biden, so refrained).

Is your all-consuming hatred hatred of the right, or hatred of women? Or toxic hatred of Americans?

Strapworld - Don't get your point. I was one of the people lobbying for Clarke's return to the front bench.

Nicholas

I saw his "better placed" nonsense on the news this evening. It caught me by surprise but I still felt a wave of revulsion at the display of arrogance and hubris. He is clearly insane.

Mandelson railing against protectionism but blithely ignoring the "British jobs for British workers" boast of his beast master. Gliding, slithery, shape-shifting, lying, duplicitous creatures of the night. What is it going to take to finally bring them down?

oldrightie

Cameron was not my choice but he will be a great PM.

colin

"Labour has lost the next election already"

You think...?

I reckon that unless the tories put some clear blue water between themselves and labour on the big issues, other than the economy; for example: Europe, big state, civil liberties, tax... the electorate may take a "better the devil you know" approach.

It's not over by a long shot.

Verity

Trevorsden writes to me: "There has been nothing 'naively optimistic' about Browns claims."

NSS. Who said "naive"?

Why is your over-written post addressed to me? Are you mad?

Austin Barry - a chilling post. And who would come to our aid ... the EUSSR? And why, having ceded our country and our civil liberties, should anyone bother?

Morus, thank you! What about the former PM of Oz, John Howard? Gosh, I'd love to hear that Strine in the HofC! A face-off between Glasgae Speaker ("free air miles for he whole family"! and free taxis for the wife!) and the cutting Strine of John Howard.

Radka - I think you have posted after way, way too much wine. Or, in your case, lager.

Verity

Nicholas writes with heavy truth, "Gliding, slithery, shape-shifting, lying, duplicitous creatures of the night. What is it going to take to finally bring them down?"

Superb.

Richard33

To be fair to Cameron, he shouldn't really have won his leadership bid, and now he has seen all potential dissolve in a sewer - well, I kinda feel sorry for the guy.

I don't think any of us really know what he's going to be like intellectualy, few snipets here, ripostes there, but there's a job to do - clean it up. He needs Kim & Aggie.

Verity

Trevorsden - although your posts are normally unexecptional, I hadn't put you down for a raving loony.

You write, addressed to me: "TrevorsDen
January 31st, 2009 9:31pm

"Verity - if you must be fatuous, do it in private.

"There has been nothing 'naively optimistic' about Browns claims. They have been crudely self serving."

You're getting me mixed up with someone else, fathead. The notion of my using the words "naively optimistic" in the same sentence as the word "Brown" makes me think about people who smoke dope and get identities all mixed up.

I don't believe there is one regular reader of this blog who would believe, through the most laid back haze, that would use the word "naive" in the context of Gordy.

Archie

Verity: I think some of the posters here need an irony transplant and/or a satire injection! I don't get that they don't get it. Obviously not regulars.

TGIF UKIP: spot-on again!

mitch

Perhaps he meant geographically and not financially?
By any standard we are as the experts say "SCREWED" and until the captain of the ship admits to the iceberg we wont change course.This fool just nationalised the damn thing.

Roy Simpson

TGF UKIP: "Well, just like last Summer, I wouldn't be so sure and for exactly the same reason which is there seems to be precious little enthusiasm for Dave's Tories even though Joe Public seems to be mightily pissed off with Brown's Labour".

And ..."what the polls were saying was that the Tory lead had more to do with disenchantment with Labour rather than any warmly positive embrace of the Cameron Tories".

Your assessment of the Conservative position may well be correct, but history has shown us that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them.

Johnny Norfolk

Verity I wondered where you had gone. I have missed you.

Roger Thornhill

Labour will almost certainly lose the next election, but with a Cameronite or Clarkean, Federast, centrist wibble Conservative Party, we, the electorate are likely to lose regardless.

And no, a hung parliament with those damnable Lib Dems worming their way in is even worse.

oldtimer

Back to Mr Brown and the linked Q and A session at Davos - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/davos/7862203.stm.

It sounded to me like a job application to be the man to clean up this global banking crisis, to reform the IMF and the World Bank so that they will be able to "intervene to prevent a crisis" and look at data "daily instead of monthly" - as if they could!

Other gems: "reward hardwork and enterprise" - think the UK benefits culture and taxes on jobs; "transparency and disclosure" - think concealed PFI data and fiddled inflation data.

Whether the international community is ready to entrust "reform" and "control" to the man responsible, first as Chancellor and then as PM, for the deepest problems of any major country in the world is a moot point. First they need to be reminded of his seven deadly sins - theft, incompetence, waste, irresponsibility, deception, hubris, unelected.

Rob C

I agree that Labour will loose, but I think their problem goes deeper in that it isn't just the leader who's discredited - the whole team are weak and incompetent. They blunder from one crisis to the next and many are of their own making. Gordon himself hit the nail on the head a couple of days ago - "confidence". What he fails to see however is that this failure is down to him and his party. The Markets and the people have no confidence in them and therefore whatever he does will achieve nothing. I also believe that the longer he delays any election, the longer they will remain in the political wilderness, post-defeat. It will be interesting to see the effect of a mood change in the U.S. post-Obama during the next quarter. I expect our decline to accelerate in contrast to the U.S. which will most likely begin to ease. David Cameron may not be seen by some a the best leader, but he has built unity and a good team and that inspires more people to give them a chance. Once elected, he will need to prove quickly that he can deliver on his promises and be fair-handed. Above all, they need to be accountable and honest - any mistakes need to be recognised immediately not pinned on someone else or kicked under the carpet as is the NuLabour norm. Personally, I'd like reform of the justice system as a good starting point - when the elderly can be jailed for non-payment of council tax but a yob who steals a car can get away with a fine and a ban (that they aren't likely to heed) then something is very wrong. Starkly unjust headlines are seen daily and errode confidence in the state and I predict that the judicial system will become public enemy number one in place of Banks. This would place us ever closer to anarchy and combined with a downturn, such events become more likely as people get increasingly despondent and disenchanted. Like Bankers and Lawyers, Politicians earn far more than Mr & Mrs Average - even before expenses are taken into account and we increasing want to see our representatives 'in-touch' with everyday life and doing more of what we want and less of what they think we should have imposed on us.

Parky

Rob C - spot on - From discussions with my friends (who are mostly, but not all, white, male, "working class", actually working in real jobs for the moment with aspirations for their families)there is a real potential for explosion in this country. The natural reserve of Brits creates a pressure cooker effect and we are near to burtsing point.
The implications of lots of New Labours policies have not hit home yet because most are too busy trying to keeps heads above water to protest. When they do watch out! Just a note for David Cameron too - if he gets into power before the pressure cooker goes it will still be simmering away - he needs to remove it from the heat!!

David Parker

Rob C,
I share your fears.Quite apart from anger against an out of touch justice system (whose jurisdiction if frequently undermined by both EU legislation and the European Court of Human Rights),people no longer have confidence in either the competence or impartiality of our police forces.
Whilst the Conservatives will probably win the next election this will not dispel the mistrust and general dissatisfaction with the political class in general, including those at local government level.

This may lead to a gradually increasing swing towards new or existing minority parties during the life of the next Parliament, thus further fragmenting the nation. This would mean an increasing demand for PR and the likelihood of coalition governments in the future, thus completing Tony Blair'd dismantling of the Britain which he despised.

Verity

Rob C writes: "David Cameron may not be seen by some a the best leader, but he has built unity and a good team ..." No, he hasn't. What good team? Excepting Michael Gove and William Hague and latterly, by popular demand, Kenneth Clarke, (some might add Liam Fox), they are all people who are in no danger of overshadowing Mr Cameron... "and that inspires more people to give them a chance." I don't agree. The rest of them are ciphers. They have not been allowed to establish an identity in the electorate's mind. Cameron does not like competition. He has reduced a once great and highly respected British party to a "brand" - which he claims to have "decontaminated", having accepted our enemy's definition of us.

I agree with you, though, that the justice system, once the template for large swathes of the globe, is public enemy No 1 - especially if you include the police force. Public enemy number 2 is the education system which intentionally smothers children's hunger to learn and have their minds challenged under the saccharine blanket of "fairness". Intentionally raising passive, ill-informed people with little ability to think logically is what this government is all about and they should be so easy to defeat. But Cameron is going to bodge it, and I hope he does, because then we'll get a new Leader.

All done in 12 years.

We need an individual with a very strong personality and an accurate compass to get us through this, and David Cameron is not that person.

Tiberius

It is likely to become more difficult as time goes on for Cameron's detractors to avoid sounding more like Brown himself, or even Comical Ali .

Hysteria

I think the comments by Verity and others on the importance of the education system are spot on.

However laying this at the NuLab door doesn't quit tell the full story does it?

The decline in standards, and the rise of the "all must win prizes" culture predates this lousy government.

Gramsci ? perhaps - but certainly this is a long term issue -

The solution needs to be articulated and implemented quickly - interestingly this is one area where the Tories have got a policy and the intellectual capital to spend

Verity

Tiberius - Rubbish. Substantiate your silly claim with examples. If all you can do in defence of the rubbish running this country is come up with nebulous, imaginary insults, you are bereft indeed.

Rhoda Klapp

I suppose it would be expecting too much to ask the tories for a list of labour legislation from the last twelve years which they would repeal or reverse? You can chuck in some EU stuff too, if you like.

Rob C

Verity - I accept much of your comment and argument, but I do believe that Cameron has a good team - irrespective of their current profiles or lack of outspokenness. The leadership has to be a fine balance between authority and teamwork and whilst I appreciate that there are some missing talents in his front bench, he had to address old perceptions too. New faces and policy were necessary to win over much of the centre-ground electorate who were alienated. In order to to get that first term, Cameron can't afford discontent either and thus a 'tame' shadow cabinet. Once elected, I feel that provided they can live up to expectation, his support will grow and he can afford to risk more outspoken and clearly talented members of the party. Like you, I think the strongest members of his team are his 'inner circle', but then I guess that is why they're there? Personally, I was disappointed not to see IDS & perhaps DD in the shadow cabinet as I think they have strengths in areas the new government will need, but a shadow cabinet of ex-leaders/ex-leadership candidates gives ammo and satisfaction to opposition benches.

On the justice front, I have some sympathy with the police as they get the flack when often the courts and laws are to blame. Having a partner who worked both for them and local authority (CCTV), I gained a much better understanding of the failings of the system. The police, under pressure to remove drug dealers from the streets would run a carefully planned operation with CCTV and round them up. Within hours, they'd be back - released on bail! This pattern then repeats again and again with an occasional respite of a few weeks whilst they are in jail to make new contacts.

Finally, whatever you think of the conservative brand's former toxicity or otherwise, it is how much of the media and electorate perceived/painted it and come polling day that's what matters. All of the recent leaders have done their bit to remove that stigma and so thankfully, have New Labour by adopting sleaze, deceit and incompetence as their very own brand! Time has also proved much previous policy direction to have been correct, but the issue of Europe should be one for the electorate. Although I'm not for frequent referendums, the impact this has on every walk of life justifies a specific mandate - particularly given the way it was mis-sold originally...

Max Kaye

The truth is that Cameron - as an individual - is irrelevant. Voters are so sick of Brown that they would gladly vote for a pig's head on a stick if it assured his ejection from office.

Cameron and the Tories offer that assurance.

Verity

Rob, I appreciate your post and your points would make sense - in an ideal world. With respect, they don't work in today's climate, which is why what support Cameron enjoys is tepid, to put it at its kindest.

I have never read one comment, anywhere, praising him as a strong, insightful, fair-minded leader. The warmest comments about Cameron are excuses, like, "Well, he has to keep his powder dry." (I contend he doesn't have any powder.) Or, "Well, if he tells us what his plans are, the socialists will steal them." I contend that he doesn't have any plans. Other than to get his feet under the desk in Downing St, that is.

He doesn't talk out on the most important issue of the day - our continued submerging in the EUSSR or negotiating a more semi-detached arrangement, such as Norway enjoys. He appears to have no plans for the police. Indeed, he seems not to have noticed that law and order is out the window, due to the intransigence of a thought fascist (aka politically correct) police force and judiciary. He has nothing to say about the open Labour goal of education. He doesn't promote the Shadow Cabinet into being spokespeople for their briefs.

He does, however, want to promote women and some nebulous thing called "fairness". He's not making a mark among the electorate, and, and a lot of other voters, would not style him a Conservative.

I would also contend that he doesn't really relate to anyone outside his circle. He can advocate hugging hoodies, but I'll bet he doesn't know anyone who's been attacked by a gang of them. Or he makes a few laboured, patrician jokes with the proles when he's amongst them. Indeed, he's the most distant "leader" we've ever had. He seems to be uneasy with anyone outside his circle, unlike other OEs, who will chat away and make themselves at home with anyone. Which is OK. You could put it down to shyness. But he is wanting in the important things.

Tiberius

Verity: you are an example of a latter day Comical Ali. That is not an insult unless you are oversensitive to a bit of humour.

By your own admission, you won't listen to or watch Cameron, so how can you claim to know that all he does is no good? You give the impression that you judge him by the way he looks and sounds, which is decidedly unhelpful in an argument such as this.

I have jousted with you many times on this issue, and the fact you ask me to explain again means you didn't absorb the argument on all previous occasions. So there is no point me spending time doing so again.

Torres

Can anyone on here spell 'lose'?!

JONNY

Bring in Sarah Palin has to be the stupidest suggestion of 2009.
And we're only on Feb 2.

Verity

Tiberius writes: "... and the fact that you have asked me to explain again ..."

It's a terrible thing to have to point out to someone, but have you ever heard of irony?

And don't lecture me on what is "decidedly unhelpful", there's a good chap. What was "decidedly unhelpful" was appointing David Cameron Leader. Had they appointed David Davis, the Tories would have be streaking ahead in the polls for the last six months.

In addition, I have never read a passionate defence of David Cameron on this site. The closest he gets to a vote of confidence among the commentariat here is a shrug and a "well, we have to make the best of what we've got".

Can the lectures.

JONNY

Evidently,
after a bombardment of posts, followed by today's topical snowstorm
we must reluctantly conclude:

'Hell hath no fury like a woman's scorn.'

Hugh

Verity I am sure that you have been here many times, but just in case you hav'nt there is lots of good stuff to fill you in o the background to what the Conservatives are planning on this page.

http://www.conservatives.com/Policy.aspx