The Coffee House Debate
4:41pmWelcome to a debate between Tim Montgomerie, editor of Conservative Home, and Matthew d’Ancona on how the Tories should respond to the Brown challenge.
Tim Montgomerie starts things off:
Dear Matt,To read the rest click here
I’m glad to be doing this exchange of thoughts with you again and many congratulations on the Coffee House blog. It's quickly become essential reading.
Brown has had a good few days and it's beyond doubt that he should not be underestimated. I think David Cameron should expect some tricky opinion poll ratings in the next couple of weeks. If the party can hold its nerve over the coming period, however, I am hopeful that Project Cameron can still succeed.
Matt responds:
Dear TimThanks for doing this. It’s been quite a couple of days.
I agree with you completely about personnel: Osborne, Hague and Davis should be left in post, with some of the best and brightest (definitely Michael Gove and Ed Vaizey) brought into the front line. Cameron has no need to be rushed into an unnecessary game of musical chairs: indeed, one of the crucial tests is that the public do not get the scent in their nostrils of Tory panic.
At the same time, complacency is as bad as panic. The fact is that most Tories (conservativehome being an honourable exception) underestimated Brown badly, and have been caught off guard by the vigour and daring of his first actions. It was predictable that he would try to close down the negative impression that he was a dour Stalinist by smiling a lot and promising to “listen and learn”. That he would pose so aggressively as the candidate of change was less foreseeable and presents a formidable challenge to Cameron, however preposterous the claim may seem.
Authenticity is, as you say, the key. Joe Trippi, Howard Dean’s pollster now working for John Edwards, was, as you know, in town recently, and he identified authenticity as the principal determinant of trust in the modern world of politics. For Cameron, this means not shifting an inch from his excellent “brand decontamination” project: he has been right to emphasise the environment, social justice and international development, and he should resist all calls (and there will be plenty) for him to revert to a core vote strategy. We have seen that movie three times now, and we know how it ends.
But authenticity means not only meaning what you say but having something to say that justifies your claim to office. What is lacking, still, in the Cameron campaign is a sense of hunger, mission and purpose: an impatience to get into Number Ten to transform the country for the common good. The grammar schools row mattered not only because it illustrated a leader who was sometimes plain rude to his own supporters – your courtesy point – but because it suggested that he was out of touch with the aspirations and anxieties of ordinary people. To say that grammar schools are bad in one area but fine in another sounded daft. To imply that selection is acceptable in the private sector but not in state schools was much worse: the voice of a lofty anthropologist looking down on the funny little voters. Your “AND theory” shows that the choice between modernisation and bread and butter Tory ideas is a false dichotomy: he can do both.
For me, Cameron can only be “the change” if he understands how we, the voters, want the country to change. Saying that he trusts us is not enough. He needs to mark out positions (not the same as spelling out detailed policies) that make it clear that he is on our side. Brown understands this, and is positioning himself as the Scottish Sarkozy. We need more from Cameron on people’s ordinary insecurities and hopes: making ends meet, staying safe on the streets, getting value for money from the public services they fund, fairness in welfare, green policies that are practical.
In short, I would like to hear passion as well as warmth in his voice. It is all to play for. But he has to raise his game.
Best, Matt
Previous
Comments
James T Kirk
June 28th, 2007 4:57pmCameron's memorable speech at the Party Conference won him the leadership and showed that he is a brilliant speaker. I should have thought that Brown is now near enough committed to policy to allow Cameron to stake out his own without the perennial fear that Labour will nick it and pass it off as their own. But he has to be find a communication medium - TV ,and particularly the BBC, are all Labour at the moment. This year's Party Conference may be very important for Cameron.
hogarth zombie
June 28th, 2007 5:10pmwhat about Europe? Why are mods so scared of mentioning our best issue?
David Belchamber
June 28th, 2007 5:27pmWell said; PMQs yesterday was a revelation because everyone (well, almost) was being courteous and Cameron particularly was so much more impressive for being courteous. Blair even answered a question or two. I don't suggest this will continue, because of the cut and thrust of politics. I have to say that, after a lifetime in education,I was so incensed by David Cameron's remarks about grammar schools that I ceased my membership. I will vote tory again though if they do the sort of things you suggest.
Bruce Sweeney
June 29th, 2007 3:57amRebellious Scots to crush "Scottish Sarkozy"? Matt, was this just a piece of snappy alliteration or is it another example of the fear and fascination of the Scots? As an avid reader of the commentary surrounding Mr. Brown's succession, I have become increasingly aware of the juxtaposition of Mr. Brown’s Scottishness and the usual “dour” adjectives used to describe him. I comment not as one of those stereotypical, raving Scottish Nationalists, but as someone who wonders what impact Gordon Brown’s Scottishness will have on British politics? A recent Spectator article, by Fraser Nelson (himself a Scotsman), referred to Mr. Brown as a "leftist Scotsman" and a "Scottish interloper". Do leftist politics and being Scottish come hand in hand? Do Mr. Brown’s Celtic credentials inhibit him from being anything other than an interloper in British politics? I think not. Boris Johnson goes even further in his recent article against Mr. Brown’s undemocratic succession. In the heat of Boris’ argument he refers to Mr. Brown as a “brooding Scottish power-maniac”. Isn’t a brooding power-maniac bad enough? This game of ominous word association doesn’t stop with the Spectator. The BBC felt it was important to illustrate how Scottish the new cabinet is without mentioning how English, Welsh or Northern Irish the rest of the cabinet are. This, to me, highlights more than just a disgruntlement around the West Lothian question. The Economist’s latest Bagehot, Steve O’Brien, raises a similar point in his “Jock v Posh” article and it begs the question, will Gordon Brown’s Scottishness be a help or a hindrance? Only time will tell.
Mark WIlliams
June 29th, 2007 10:42amI agree with your point about authenticity "as the principal determinant of trust". If Cameraon can fake that, he will have the next election in the bag.
Simon Denis
June 29th, 2007 1:16pmI have every confidence that Brown's very strength will play to his disadvantage. His determination looks ruthless, his adroit manoeuvring appears shifty and his wish to "include" resembles a desire to imprison. As for his attempts to smile, they strongly suggest a grimly endured bout of wind. Meanwhile, he has, in John Reid, lost Labour's only pin-up among the London cabbies. Lose them and you are losing the humbler ranks of the middle class. So keep laughing, Mr C. We were very cross indeed over the grammar schools and you did little to assuage or soothe us. Please don't be rude to us again. Faced with that dour, self-righteous Brown, however, we will probably support you anyway.
Henry Curteis
June 29th, 2007 5:33pmCameron's light touch, intelligence and gentility are his strength but also his weakness. He need a foil - not as in Osborne and Hague, as they too are the same type. Blair was airy and light touch but he was surrounded with strong henchmen - Mandelson, Brown, Cherie!, Campbell, Prescott. You cannot have Camerons surrounded by more and more of the same type. If Cameron is Blair, where are the Mandelsons, Campbells, Browns, Prescotts? The fighters and detail people. There are people in Conservative ranks who can put beef in the Cameron sandwich. But they have been marginalised by the modernisation programme. As this is a turing point, and Cameron sees the need for the 'and theory', he needs people who can deliver that strategy. That won't be done by the same nice friendly enthusiastic bunch. Cameron needs an eccentric or two alongside his excellent professionalism...not more and more the same which smells of weakness, and can become a boring diet. John Hayes is my recommendation for Party Chairman with these thoughts in mind. The quilt should be patchwork not monocultural. The problem was at one time the .nasty' party. Now it's the far too nice party.
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