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Friday, 6th February 2009

The next election is lost so Brown might as well take some risks

James Forsyth 10:45am

On the current political trajectory, Labour will go down to a heavy defeat at the next election. For this reason, it would be foolish in the extreme for Brown to carry on with his current approach: the polls show that it clearly isn’t working.

Brown should be prepared to try something completely different; it can hardly lead to a worse result. Matthew Taylor, the former Blair aide, has suggested that Brown should declare a ‘unilateral political ceasefire’ and concentrate solely on the economy. The theory being that the country would be impressed by the statesman-like action and give Brown until May 2010 to turn things around. But any effort to win back public trust on the economy is, as Bagehot argues, going to have to start with some recognition from Brown that he has made mistakes. As Bagehot writes:

“Mr Brown’s current, resolutely unapologetic approach isn’t working. The endless enumeration of recession-busting policies—the “Kirkcaldy telephone directory” method, as one wry observer describes it—just isn’t washing, as some in his own party seem to accept. Inflexibly maintaining that no mistakes have been made is undermining public faith in the government’s ability to correct them”

If Brown were to frankly admit that he made mistakes and explain why he did so he might just have a chance to persuade the public that he now understands what needs to be put right. But, in a way, this whole debate is academic. Brown seems temperamentally unable to admit that he has made mistakes.
 

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seb

February 6th, 2009 11:15am Report this comment

What!!!?? More hilarity. I know you're joking, but, honestly, the Kirkcaldy Autist declare a 'political ceasefire'? The noblest thing Brown will ever do is to annoint a modern-day Doenitz as the orchestra strikes up a tune from Götterdämmerung. Political ceasefire? I'll be laughing about this into the middle of next week.

Nicholas

February 6th, 2009 11:28am Report this comment

Unfortunately Brown's tenacity in holding onto an office he no longer deserves is being bolstered by the rank cowardice of his party, the opposition and the media in not demanding his immediate sacking. It shouldn't require Brown to admit his own mistakes in order for them to be acknowledged. The elephants in the room - and they are all big and stink - are his total incompetence, his wretched conniving in puerile spin, his vindictive egotism and the appalling state of the country. All the other misfits in his cabinet are the direct result of his plotting and patronage so he must take the blame for them too.

What does it take, in this nation of New Labour created children, to point the finger at the problem and say, openly and honestly, in a collective voice "Go!"?

Brown, to use one of New Labour's own favourite euphemisms, is "unacceptable" as a Prime Minister. It is bleedin' obvious. Why are our politicians and media so craven that the good of this country is put in second place to the preening ego of this one, ghastly individual and the empty speculation it drives?

Is it because however bad Daddy is the children cannot contemplate the fear of being orphaned?

Bryan Grainger

February 6th, 2009 11:29am Report this comment

Unfortunately Cameron, who gave us hope that he was a man of principle and integrity who would change things for the better, has decided to turn away from his much vaunted belief in "Change' and instead sell his favours to Party donors. Cameron is perfectly capable of throwing away his advantage and delivering the next election to Brown.

Thomas Cussans

February 6th, 2009 11:30am Report this comment

The notion of Brown, deeply tribal, in important senses defined by his utter hatred of the Conservatives, declaring a 'unliateral political ceasefire' is risible, no more likely than the great genius admitting he made mistakes.

He will plough on regardless, obstinately leading his party to electoral extermination.

On the subject of which, assuming he is not already in a lunatic asylum, I guarantee that he will explain away defeat by claiming to have been the real brains behind Labour's three general election successes.

Rhoda Klapp

February 6th, 2009 11:46am Report this comment

With a blank sheet, he wouldn't have a clue what to do. As it is, he'd have to reverse a lot of things he said were right a matter of weeks ago. He and his treasury crew seem to have no idea of how the economy works. Or how and when to bring in a stimulus. If there were a national government (and why no election?) he could not possibly remain PM, because he is impossible to work with.

One hears occasionally hints about his mental state. As an outsider I'm unable to judge whether these are based on fact, but I do remember the hints about Charlie Kennedy, and we eventually found that reality was that a man proposing himself (however unlikely the prospect) as fit to control our nuclear deterrent was in fact drunk most of the time, AND THAT FACT was covered up by the entire political establishment. If GB is really in a bit of a state, shouldn't we be told.

Gordon Musgo

February 6th, 2009 11:48am Report this comment

My wife noticed that every time he drops his jaw in that peculiar way, he's lying. (If you haven't noticed before, watch for it. Once seen, you can't unsee it.)

Searcher

February 6th, 2009 11:49am Report this comment

"If Brown were to frankly admit that he made mistakes and explain why he did so..." Never mind about whether he is psychologically capable of admitting that he made mistakes (he isn't), does he even understand what those mistakes were, still less what he should have done differently. I think not.

Walsingham's Ghost

February 6th, 2009 11:50am Report this comment

Sorry James, but Brown is physically incapable of even contemplating that he might bear some responsibility for the current mess. It will always be the fault of others in his mind.

Diswiss

February 6th, 2009 11:57am Report this comment

Let Brown take the full can for
the incompetent mess he has created.He took his eye off the ball (I won't mention which one)
took the glory during the boom
and must now be punished for the bust. Why should he join with the others to share the blame.

His odious arrogance is catching up with him and he will be thrashed at the next G.E.

Mike, Brighton

February 6th, 2009 11:58am Report this comment

You are now reaching deep into Brown's psyche. He has spent his whole career refusing to admit any error or shortcoming and as importantly refusing to cede any point or issue to the Tories.

He is quite simply psychologically incapable of admitting any error and embarking on the path you describe. It is much, much more that his temperament you refer to.

How can he have made any mistakes? It's all the fault of the Americans....

chris

February 6th, 2009 12:08pm Report this comment

I dislike Brown with a passion. but I always thought if on gaining his "beloved" leadership he had have stated "I might only be PM for 30 months but I will make the right decisions for the country and let history be the judge" he would have gained some respect. Instead this so called "conviction politician" has made policy solely to put the Tories in a bad light and wrongfoot opponents: 10P tax, Heathrow...... He cannot change his instincts, schooled in sectarian Scottish Labour politics. Let there be no doubt Brown will be seen as a trgic flawed figure in UK political history. He squanderd his last chance! History will not be kind.

EC

February 6th, 2009 12:18pm Report this comment

Haven't you heard? Isn't it obvious? Blair's second coming was guarranteed by the recapitation of Peter the Baptist. It's the third way!

Chas n Dave are more electable than George n Dave.

Oh what a nightmare.

Marin

February 6th, 2009 12:21pm Report this comment

How does one get along with someone who is incapable of admitting one's mistakes? Undoubtably, it must be endless fun.

Hawkeye

February 6th, 2009 12:30pm Report this comment

Why have a "Unity Government"? If we are going to change the government we may as well have an election. The only justification for a "Government of National Unity" would be if there were 4.5 years to the next election and it was "all hands to the pumps".

Personally I would love Brown to suggest it - it would finish Labour for once and for all as it would reveal a Mugabae-like desire to cling to power at any cost. It would broadcast to the nation that Labour's only true purpose is to be in power, to exercise that power and to do anything, no matter how despicable, to maintain that power.

Roger Thornhill

February 6th, 2009 12:59pm Report this comment

What is this "autist" nonsense. Autism does not make you incapable of accepting faults. Brown is a Autistic Sociopath in my book. THe delusion comes from the Sociopathic streak in him. His repetitive behaviour and social awkwardness might come from autism.

TrevorsDen

February 6th, 2009 12:59pm Report this comment

Huh?

Declare a unilateral political ceasefire? Akin to a spoilt brat taking his ball home and not playing because he is losing?

Oh I get it .... see why thats a good idea for labour. Explain why iots as good idea for anyone else - is anyone seriously suggesting that brown should not be criticises? 'Don't bother me I am concentrating on the economy' Yes thanks. Great idea.

But pardon me - Brown concentrating on the economy is what got us INTO this mess. I am more happy when Brown is not concentrating on anything.

When will Spectator hack stop suggesting things for Brown to do. When will they stop assuming that Brown is remotely interested in anything other than SAVING HIS OWN SKIN !

Get back into the real world, you have all been gossiping for too long in corridors of the pubs of power.

Slim Jim

February 6th, 2009 1:15pm Report this comment

Faced with a choice of either forming a consensus national government and admitting mistakes, or continuing with a scorched earth policy with deliberate traps for the Tories to set off, which one would he choose? New Labour's problem is that hubris and arrogance along with the Goebbels style media management are bearing bitter fruits.

Austin Barry

February 6th, 2009 1:15pm Report this comment

Although brutal and unkind, Clarkson's incisive comments on Brown seem to have precisely and joyously captured the public mood. Now every time Brown appears on our screens the cyclopic Caledonian cretin alert will sound. He's done for. Finished. Kaput.

BrianSJ

February 6th, 2009 1:16pm Report this comment

Rhoda Klapp
Spot on.

Kevyn Bodman

February 6th, 2009 1:40pm Report this comment

It is impossible to call a unilateral political ceasefire and concentrate solely on the economy because deciding what steps to take in an attempt to minimise the recession or depression are political decisions.

I would not have bailed out the banks, that's a political decision.
I would:
Hve no more bailouts.

Have a referendum on Lisbon and on continued membership of the EU and in the event of leaving I would remove work permits from many foreigners, round up as many illegal immigrants as possible and deport them.

Simultaneously cut welfare payments substantially in an attempt to get benefit recipients into productive work.

Brown, and Cameron, won't do any of these things but they are political decisions.

oldtimer

February 6th, 2009 1:52pm Report this comment

Mr Taylor advanced the idea of a "unilateral ceasefire" on the Daily Politics a week or so ago. He did so without great conviction. Nevertheless it is, I believe, very revealing.

The thesis advanced is interesting:
"Labour strategists cling to the little noticed fact that tax, benefit and interest rate changes mean people who don't rely on savings or expect to lose their jobs (which is most of us) will enjoy a faster rise in disposable income this year than in almost a decade. But if Labour is to benefit politically from green shoots in 2010 it has to persuade the voters not to make their minds up before then."

This reveals the thinking behind the PBR (last Autumn) with its otherwise mindless VAT reduction. It was another example of Brown`s attempt at political triangulation - manipulate the cost of living numbers down in the short term, wrongfoot Cameron as the "do nothing" politician, go for a Spring election.

Cameron`s post Xmas counter offensive and his poll recovery seem to have spiked that Brown plan. The VAT reduction is now widely ridiculed; Cameron and co are obviously not "do nothing" but "do something different" namely attack the root of the problem which is the credit crunch, especially as it affects business.

Meanwhile we are reminded that savers outnumber borrowers by c5:1. Near zero interest rates will not encourage those savers (the ones with the money!) to spend. More likely they will remain true to their instincts and reign in their spending against the inflationary deluge that will drench us all in due course.

Truly we are run by a bunch of thickies.

Ian C

February 6th, 2009 4:08pm Report this comment

"it can hardly lead to a worse result"

What have you been smoking James?

Cassandra King

February 6th, 2009 4:53pm Report this comment

Brown knows the next election is lost to him and his party so the option open to him is to sabotage the economy so completely that the incoming Tories have to apply such harsh medicine that they will become deeply unpopular within a first term.
Brown will urge the unions to provoke industrial unrest and use his contacts with the 'mob raisers' to urge them to take to the streets in numbers large enough to cause civil unrest.
Brown has such a personality defect and is so filled with rage and hatred that the Hitlerian 'scorched earth' is an attractive option for him, he cares NOTHING for anyone but himself, he makes the same error as all mentally unstable power seekers, he actually believes that HE is the state, that HE is the only true representation of the truth, anyone else with any other view or opinion is a mortal enemy out to destroy him and his works!
The sooner people realise just how deranged he is the better for the UK.

TGF UKIP

February 6th, 2009 7:35pm Report this comment

"The next election is lost...." This the party line now, James?

If so, you lot are deluding yourselves. Just go to the YouGov marginals poll linked to on here on Wednesday and you will see in detail, excruciating for all you Cameron Crazies, that Gordon really does have everything to play for.

Ken

February 6th, 2009 10:30pm Report this comment

AB: "cyclopic Caledonian cretin alert" Superb!

Trumpeter Lanfried

February 6th, 2009 10:36pm Report this comment

If Brown were to frankly admit that he made mistakes ... he might just have a chance to persuade the public.

And if my grandmother had balls she would be my grandfather.

Tankus

February 7th, 2009 10:40am Report this comment

Deep down he knows that he will loose the next election , thats why he is destroying the UK economy,just to make the Tories first decade in office as difficult as possible.

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