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Tuesday, 10th February 2009

Israeli elections: Kadima set to be the largest party but Netanyahu appears more likely to be able to form a government

James Forsyth 8:24pm

The exit polls all suggest that Kadima will, by a small margin, win the most seats in the Knesset. However, with Likud coming a close second and Labor appearing to have been forced into fourth by the unsavoury Yisrael Beitenu party of Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu appears to have a better chance of forming a government. But remember these are exit polls and so much could change. Also, the course of coalition negotiations are notoriously hard to predict.

Exit poll projections:

Channel 1:
Kadima 30
Likud 28
Yisrael Beitenu  14
Labor 13

Channel 2:
Kadima 29
Likud 27
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Labor 13

Channel 10:
Kadima 30
Likud 28
Yisrael Beitenu 15
Labor 13
 

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Chris

February 10th, 2009 8:37pm Report this comment

Surely 'Mero ni a menuti?' Or is there an Israeli party called Kadmia?

Gil

February 10th, 2009 9:13pm Report this comment

The three exit polls appear to be correlated. Therefore, it appears that these are indeed the results. The real drama though is what the new Israeli government will do about Iran. A national unity government is now on the cards similar to the one in 1967 when Begin joined the Labour party, justified by the national emergency. The countdown has begun.

Hawkeye

February 11th, 2009 9:03am Report this comment

And the result in Israel is .... yet another unstable coalition. It's almost Italian!

I'm not sure whether they are a good advert for Proportional Representation or a warning about the lack of stability PR can cause.

AngloWelshDragon

February 11th, 2009 12:15pm Report this comment

I heard someone from Yisrael Beitenu on Today this morning and was very impressed. From the media portrayal of the party I expected a slavering loon but their policies came across as very reasonable. He would have won my vote.

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