Mandelson's June election advice for Brown

Jupiter

A massive boost to public spending - Broon really is mental. He should be cutting it drastically.

DM

I wish he would call one.
He probably won't, until his hand is forced.
He is kidding himself if he think he could ever be in with a chance. The anger in the country is extraordinary, and people don't warm to him.

wight tory

Well given the tradional war chest is an open cheque book, it would make sense, but will bottler Brown risk it...

TrevorsDen

So yet again the management of the economy takes second place to the prospects of an election.

The farcical predications of the Nov PBR were predicated on a possible Jan Feb election.

But roll on a June election, no doubt the main selling point for labour will be some green shoots of recovery.

But maybe a June election is Mandys only way of getting rid of Brown - although no one has perhaps though of the fact that Brown would not 'go'.

GeoffH

I thought most people had now worked out - correctly - that we need to CUT public expenditure not expand it.

But note that if this is Brown's plan it is not being considered on its economic, ideological or philosophical merits but merely as "ploy [that] will isolate the Conservatives".

Again, playing the silly game of trying to wrong foot the opposition rather than doing things on their merits or out of conviction.

TomTom

Politics really is unhinged in London. Why a US President should have any influence over voters who have 12 years experience of Brown & Bankers is beyond satire.

Most people want Brown hanged drawn and quartered so if he can manage that on 3rd June 2009 he might have a chance.

Craig Strachan

A June election would indeed be a Mandelsonian move: Brown would be stuffed as Labour would certainly lose, but it would mean the Tories would be in government during the worst of the multi-year recession ahead, which could give Labour a fighting chance of returning to government in 2013/4.

Clinging on until the last possible date in 2010 merely increases the likelihood of a massive defeat for Labour and several terms in the wilderness thereafter.

Colin

I think it's a possibility.

Economically, things are getting worse, not better. Don't forget, the financial pain the UK is currently feeling is related to events that happened eight to 12 months ago. Things are just getting started.

The longer brown waits, the more people will be affected. Never forget, politics is a function of proximity, i.e. nobody really cares until shit happens to them.

If he has a choice between going soon and getting beaten or waiting and getting totally annihilated; to the point that the labour party is destroyed, early may look tempting...

Draughtsman

I still don't think that Brown will call an election until the very last moment in 2010 whatever political advice he is given. If he bottled it last year when he was ahead in the polls he certainly won't chance it now. He does look increasingly haggard and exhausted however, and the only thing that could just persuade him to step down for the sake of his young family would be if his health starts to suffer. As much as I wish he would go I certainly wouldn't want to see his health undermined. The comparison in April between a tired and floundering Brown and a relatively youthful President Obama at the height of his powers may not help his image much either.

I also believe that a new spending splurge based on borrowed money will not play well with a public who know that it will all have to paid back with interest through much higher taxation in the future.

Denis Cooper

Well, there's talk that the Irish government might bring the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty forward from October to June:

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cabinet-at-odds-over-june-date-for-lisbon-poll-rerun-1638363.html

while Giscard would prefer it to be in May, or even late April:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0214/1233867937295.html

which would clear the way for an early UK general election.

Brown knows that the Irish people must have the opportunity to reverse their previous "no", with the possibility of the treaty coming into force shortly afterwards, BEFORE Cameron can be given a chance of becoming Prime Minister.

Otherwise, if the treaty had not already come into force, Cameron would hold a UK referendum, and that would almost certainly be RIP Lisbon Treaty.

However I doubt that the Irish referendum will be held before the autumn, not least because the German constitutional court is unlikely to rule on the treaty before early summer:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0212/1233867933057.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,606693,00.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,606952,00.html

and it would seem pointless, to say the least, to put the Irish to the trouble of a second referendum before the judges had delivered their judgement.

If they decided that the treaty contravenes the German constitution, which now seems a distinct possibility, then that would be RIP Lisbon Treaty anyway.

So I'll stick with my previous prediction, which is that our general election will be in the spring of 2010, with the caveat that if the treaty is actually killed off by the German court then it could be in the autumn of this year.

oldrightie

There will probably be an election this year but not on Labour's terms. This economic tsunami has yet to reach inland from the coast.

HFC

Draughtsman says; 'As much as I wish he would go I certainly wouldn't want to see his (Brown's) health undermined.

Just look at the recent photos and newsclips. His health is evidently rapidly deteriorating.

Perhaps we can hope his wife will care enough about him to talk him into a face-saving resignation.

But perhaps she cares for him as little as the rest of us...

Max Kaye

Brown is a coward. All his considerations, actions and dithering flow from that basic (and very base) character trait.

James J

I find myself in general agreement with Dennis Cooper, TomTom and oldrightie; all have picked out factors that will determine Brown’s decision.
Labour will lose regardless. The longer they wait the worse the result will be for them.
The biggest change in Britain’s political Landscape will be the British National Party making such progress in the European elections that their views will start to enter the main stream. I suspect Labour’s private polls are showing them they are losing the support of the white working class, without which they cannot win power.

teledu

Denis Cooper calls it right. The EU project comes first, second and third with our political "elite" - and that includes Mandelson. He'll not jeopardise the EU project by getting Brown to call an election BEFORE the Irish have had their referendum.
The EU project comes first. Not democracy, not liberty, not freedom of speech, not morals, honesty or integrity. The EU project comes first.
The EU project comes first, maybe not to the majority of Brits, probably not to the majority of Europeans, but to the political "elite" it does. The EU project comes first. Got that?

EC

Election
Hung Parliament
Brown finally cracks up
Blair Returns (Gawd Bless 'im)
Election
RIP Britannia

I know that everyone thinks that the Tories will walk it but ...

1) In England there is one hell off a gerrmandered bias toward Labour to overcome.

2) There is the FUD factor over the depression to overcome.

3) Dave ain't exactly shining.

Trumpeter Lanfried

Brown will not call an election before June 2010 unless he loses a vote of confidence. One reason (among many) is that he cannot bear to be contradicted and he knows that in an election campaign that's what you have to put up with.

carol42

If I was Obama I would stay well away from 'Jonah' he poisons everything he touches.

Rob C

I'd add my voice for a 2009 election too - for many of the reasons mentioned above, but also for Labour's long-term survival. From their party's perspective, the longer they wait, the more of the recession/depression pain will be attributed to them and the worse their long-term prognosis becomes. If the downturn is going to be long (and personally I don't think 5+ years is unrealistic) then the more of this that is percieved to be under a Tory government, the better for their chance of a more rapid re-group. Brown is obviously the loose cannon here however as he delusionally believes he can turn things around and will try and hold on regardless of the impact on his party. Matter's may be taken out of his hands however, as centre-ground MP's (and perhaps ministers) will start to defect to either Conservative or LD benches in order to preserve thier hides. At this point the govenment will implode. My money (if I had any) would be on Autumn - the green shoots won't have materialised, the dole queues will be longer, debt sky-rocketing and Labour will have been wiped out in the European/local elections.

My own opinion is mixed - my conservative loyalties tell me that the longer we wait the more complete the Labour demise/wipeout will be - incredibly, there are still 25%+ that actually still believe in them! On the flip side, I have a family and young son who is going to inherit this mess. The sooner Labour are kicked from office, the quicker we as a country will recover and the less he will pay in future taxes. "It's about confidence stupid..." and there's zero confidence in this government and therefore the economy/UK plc. A change of government is the ONLY factor that will stem the confidence drain and the Conservatives must be ready and lead the debate in all areas. We must fight for every vote however and not take it as won already - the bigger the majority, the further NuLabour go into the wilderness they so deserve...