Labour down in the dumps, as Lib Dems climb
Peter Hoskin 7:35pmJohn Rentoul promised us a wave-making ComRes / IoS poll, and he wasn't lying. The figures he revealed earlier show a 6 point climb in Lib Dem support, putting them within three points of Labour, who record their worst showing since last September. The Tories have fallen back slightly, too, but their lead over Labour is a hefty 16 points, the biggest since October last year. Here are the headline figures in full:
Conservatives --- 41 percent (down 2 percentage points)
Labour --- 25 percent (down 3)
Lib Dems --- 22 percent (up 6)
Before writing off the surge in Lib Dem support as outlier, remember that last week's ICM poll also showed a 6 point rise for Clegg & Co. Will be worth keeping an eye on the next batch of polls to see if it sticks.
As for the below-headline figures, the most eyecatching ones are in response to the statement: "The Conservatives have the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession". 45 percent of respondents disagreed, with only 35 percent agreeing. Despite the impressive poll leads they're achieving, there's still a sense that the Tories need to do more to win the economic debate and solidify their position.
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Hawkeye
February 14th, 2009 8:23pm Report this commentCrikey! I did predict a couple of days ago that Labour would go under 25% but I was expecting weeks - months perhaps - not days.
I know they are *at* 25%, not under it, but this decline is even faster than in my wildest dreams.
The likelihood of a coup d'etat within Labour has just increased.
Trumpeter Lanfried
February 14th, 2009 8:24pm Report this commentLib Dem boost is all down to Vince Cable.
David
February 14th, 2009 8:40pm Report this commentIt's worth noting though that polls in the 90's had the Conservatives with a constant lead on the economy. it's not a bar to winning.....
Travis Bickle
February 14th, 2009 9:08pm Report this commentDavid
maybe because, despite the spin put on it, labour inherited a very strong economy. The fact it took the dolt Brown nearly 11 years to screw it up proves that only too well.
Wilhelm
February 14th, 2009 9:10pm Report this commentIts depressing that 25% still want to vote liebour.
James J
February 14th, 2009 9:51pm Report this commentTrumpeter Lanfried
Maybe not. It might be anyone but Labour or our old class enemies: the Tories. Call it the Tower Hamlet scenario.
Tower Hamlets is the East End of London. In the 1980s a strange thing happened, what was a 100% Labour council started to get Liberals elected. A strange type of Liberal it has to be admitted but that was the party label. They eventually controlled the council.
Tower Hamlets now has the largest Bangladeshi community in the country and I believe three schools where a 100% of the children speak English as a second language.Labour has regained control.
Labour is losing its core white working class support and they will vote anything but Labour or Conservative because neither is seen to work for their interests.
Silent Hunter
February 14th, 2009 9:55pm Report this commentI think I might make a prediction here.
When the LibDems overtake Labour in the polls, forcing them into 3rd place, I predict that Labour will keep stay there..........we could call them ........New Third Party LOL
I think people are finally waking up to what Labour in power is all about - CORRUPTION.
Nicholas
February 14th, 2009 10:20pm Report this commentMy fantasy of a Conservative vs Lib Dem parliament with the national socialists relegated to third place appears to be coming true. It would be so good for democracy.
stereodog
February 15th, 2009 10:10am Report this commentTo quote Iolanthe 'When Britain Really Ruled the Waves' the two main governing parties were Conservatives and Liberals. The very minute a Labour government was elected Britain began to lose it's position in the world so lets see Labour for the historical mistake it is and get back to the status quo.
JimBob
February 15th, 2009 11:50am Report this commentWilhelm,
Depressing, but not entirely suprising. About 25% of the population are contractually obliged to vote labour, either as chavs claiming benefits or as public sector workers.
David Parker
February 15th, 2009 1:51pm Report this commentSince Lib-Dem policies (despite recent vacillations) are predominantly to the left of Labour one might assume that their increase in the polls comes largely from formar old labour supporters, with Tory gains coming more from the former Blairite /Nu Lab supporters. This may explain why Cameron is so keen to be seen as centre/left(ish) rather than centre/right. He seems to believe that, however, much he alienates the right wing of his party, he is unlikely to lose their votes, since there is no alternative right wing party, with the possible exception of UKIP.
Whilst the BNP is often ignorantly and incorrectly described as being extreme right wing, many of its policies are, in fact, the exact opposite, hence little of its support is likely to come from former Tory voters, except by way of extreme protest.
If, as may well be possible, the Lib-Dems do overtake Labour, we may therefore find ourselves with a left of centre Conservative Government being opposed by a left of Labour opposition. In that case, despite an internecine war in the defeated Labour party, it may be the Tory party itself which may be the first to split.
Alf Tupper
February 15th, 2009 4:12pm Report this commentAre there figures available for the level of BNP support amidst all this?
Aidan
February 16th, 2009 5:07pm Report this commentIf Labour and the Lib Dems both had exactly the same percentage vote, Labour would have far more seats, simply because the Lib Dem vote is spread more evenly around the country than the Labour vote. It is quite plausible that the Lib Dems could come second in the popular vote but still be a long way behind in terms of Parliamentary seats.
Andrew Baker
February 16th, 2009 11:21pm Report this commentIf the Lib Dems were to overtake Labour in the popular vote, a fantastic possiblity, but were to fall far behind them in the number of seats it would put a huge amount of presure on Cameron's government to introduce a new and proportional electoral system.
Michael Yates
March 28th, 2009 10:53pm Report this commentHopefully the Liberals will take back their rightful position as one of the two main political parties, even if they managed to get just 10 more seats than labour (making them the biggest opposition party, just) they would see their credibility rise, Conservative victory is almost inevitable in the next general election, but opposition is far less predictable.
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