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Thursday, 19th February 2009

The Tories are having a great and terrible day

Peter Hoskin 4:31pm

So far as the Tories are concerned, today's brought news of both the extremely encouraging and extremely ominous variety.  The good news is all for the short-to-medium term.  For instance, there's been the constant drip, drip, drip of Labour leadership speculation, which undermines Brown's position within his own party.  And then, this afternoon, there's been a damning indictment of Brown's economic approach from the CBI's Richard Lambert.  Here's what he said:

"The government appears to have been fighting a series of forest fires rather than building a platform for economic recovery. There’s little sense of a coherent strategy about what’s happened to date ... It’s hard to remember – let alone distinguish between – the welter of initiatives that it has launched in the past couple of months. The big ones that could really make a difference ... have got lost in a thicket of much less ambitious announcements."

Ok, the CBI aren't especially friends with the government, but the sheer acidity of this attack is still pretty striking.  What will cheer the Tories is how closely it cleaves to their own "headless chicken" jibe against Brown; suggesting that their economic narrative is becoming more widespread, if not mainstream.  These tidal shifts make it that more likely that Cameron & Co. will be swept into power come the next election.

But then for the ominous news, which points to the long-term challenges the Tories face.  Brown's handling of the economy may inspire attacks like the CBI's, but it's also leaving the public finances in an almighty mess for future governments.  The extent of the mess is clarified by the ONS's statistical release today, which suggests that Brown's rescue schemes for the banks could add a further £1 trillion - £1.5 trillion to public sector debt.  It's a frightening legacy, not only for future taxpayers, but for the goverment which succeeds Gordon.  Realistically, there's no way of dealing with it that doesn't involve politically-difficult spending cuts and tax rises.

Thing is, the Tories can expect almost every day between now and the election to mirror today's cocktail of good 'n' bad.

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oldrightie

February 19th, 2009 4:48pm Report this comment

There is a chance that a direct, tell it how it is, approach will be readily accepted to get us out of the cess pit of debt brought to us by Labour and Brown.

TrevorsDen

February 19th, 2009 4:54pm Report this comment

The ONS report is not bad news for the Tories - its bad news for the electorate for the country.

It re-emphasises that what is important for the Conservatives is that assuming they win the election they find out the true situation and make it clear to the country.

We need the return of a Conservative Govt but we need a return to transparency and sound economic management.

Its now clear that Brown's 'prudence for a purpose' was just a load of flannel to keep his left wing happy whilst he fulfilled his election pledge of matching Conservative economic policy.

Thereafter it has been an endless series of smoke and mirrors conjuring tricks with the national finances and public spending.

I think the real problem for the conservatives is to get across just what a truly appalling government this has been.
Its forays into all walks of British life have been disastrous.
All of this has been hidden up to now because of the borrowing bubble which has just burst - but the aftermath, rising crime, climbing benefits, falling education standards, crumbling society, creaking defences are still with us.
Sky-rocketing unemployment is just the one symptom which is obvious to the electorate.

Rhoda Klapp

February 19th, 2009 5:18pm Report this comment

What is the tory list of things Labour have done which they plan to reverse?

What are the five good reasons?

TPR

February 19th, 2009 5:27pm Report this comment

The title of this post is somewhat misleading, since the news is not bad for the Tories per se but rather a disaster to come for the nation as a whole, as has been pointed out by a previous poster. Scorched earth!

The Watcher

February 19th, 2009 5:30pm Report this comment

Yes the PSBR figures are worrying for Cameron but in effect the state of the economy is going to give him a get out of jail free card for at least a parliament and a half. The voters realize that things are bad and will take a long time to sort out. Also first term governments, unless they make a pig's ear of it like Heath did, tend to get the benefit of the doubt. All PM Cameron has to do is be straight with people about the mess we're in and appear reasonably competent and in control of events and then the Tories 2014 manifesto writes itself!

Ivy Eileen

February 19th, 2009 5:36pm Report this comment

When I read your headline, my heart sank. (e.g.) had some cretin associated with DC put his foot in his mouth ? No, not at all.

As said above, if the Tories win the Election (as I hope) then surely the first task is to do a thorough audit of the books (a la David James and Patience Wheatcroft) and spell everything out in words of one syllable so that we (incl. the BBC) know exactly how big the problem is. Only then - no fiddles, spin or false messages - can the country reacquire its confidence and work towards restoring solvency.

strapworld

February 19th, 2009 5:36pm Report this comment

Trevorsden is right when he writes that the Tories MUST promise to reveal the truth of the whole mess Labour has created in this country!

They must do a Boris! and have a rapid but total audit and publish the results.

Then, as I have written before here and elsewhere, they MUST attack the control Labour have in almost every public institution and quango throughout the land. AND the inequalities of women over men in these positions -Look at the NHS/Equal opportunities/Charity Commission and the Appointments Commission (ask the question has a male ever been the Appointments Commissioner).Even the Royal Society of Arts and Sciences is now a Labour think tank!!

The Tories could save public money by killing off most of these bodies OR ensuring they cancel all the contracts of all appointees and appoint their own!

It is only by doing this that they will crush any opposition that would come if they ignore this suggestion.

The Conservatives MUST in their first days ensure the people know exactly what a mess we are in and then blame Labour for every difficult move they have to make.

BROWN should not be allowed a place in the House of lords - and that can be assured by bringing in a wholly elected second chamber!

Be it The Equal opportunities/

Faceless Bureaucrat

February 19th, 2009 5:37pm Report this comment

@ oldrightie

I believe you are on-the-money there.

Just taking an axe to the Benefits system would play well with (what's left of) the working population.

However you try to wrap it up politically, people now know the whole 'House of Cards' is about to fall and there simply will not be any money to pay out billions of pounds on Benefits, ID Cards and non-working NHS IT systems...

Verity

February 19th, 2009 5:58pm Report this comment

Rhoda K is correct to persist with the question: What are the five reasons to vote Tory. She has been staying with this question for almost a month now.

David Cameron is not the man. He'd probably be a competent enough minister, but he is not a leader and does not have a leader's vision or sureness of foot.

lloyd

February 19th, 2009 6:03pm Report this comment

Without an axe to grind, I am a bit surprised at posts like this. Perhaps it is youthfulness and a limited knowledge of history.

For most of the last century, the Tory party has been voted into power when the country has become appalled at the incompetence of Labour economic policy. The Tories squirrel away, reduce public spending as a proportion of GDP, increase tax take by reducing rates (filthy bankers!) and, by getting the ship of state on an even keel, leave themselves open to a Socialist accusation of cutting 'help for the disadvantaged'.

Cameron is not a greybeard bringing a career to play in running the country. One just hopes that, unlike Blair, he understands the different demnds of PR and executive responsibility.

The big problem for the Tories is not Election 2010 but Election 2019.

Rodders

February 19th, 2009 6:37pm Report this comment

I think the financial mess inherited by the Tories will be a good thing inasmuch as it will force a reassessment of priorities and ensure that sound economic policies will be of paramount importance. It will also act to restrain the greed, corruption and wastefulness of the governing elite, and will provide a real incentive to tackle the forest of business-unfriendly legislation and regulation that has done so much to stifle the entrepreneurial vitality of our economy.

Here's looking forward to a vast curtailment of all the tinkerings and meddlings with which the wretched socialists have flattered, indulged and busied themselves for the last twelve years.

Who knows, maybe we'll even see something of a return to manufacturing in this country!

JONNY

February 19th, 2009 6:45pm Report this comment

'the Prime Minister emerged from the Vatican praising the pontiff’s warmth and suggesting that he would come to Britain in the Autumn or early next year.'
(with many thanks to The Times).
So now it's official. The Pope better make it pre-June 2010, but no later. Assuming he wants to meet Brown again.

teledu

February 19th, 2009 7:07pm Report this comment

Brown and the Pope, what a combination. Both believe in fairy tales.

JONNY

February 19th, 2009 7:11pm Report this comment

I think Verity's once again overdoing the downbeat on Cameron.
Ok he may not be Thatcher or Churchill.
But I prefer him to Eden, Macmillan, Heath, Major, Hague, IDS and Howard.
I have a shrewd suspicion he may confound the many Cassandras in his ranks.
I'm sure we all hope he will.

The Chocolate Orange Inspector

February 19th, 2009 7:21pm Report this comment

Jonny - Michael Howard won he election for the Conservatives in England. John Major was a steady hand on the tiller, but the Tories were running out of steam and that point and Margaret Thatcher was one hell of an act to follow. Hague is brilliant and I would be perfectly happy with him as PM, but I realise that this doesn't interest him any more.

Cameron will not confound anyone. He isn't leadership material. This isn't to say might not be competent in some areas, but the man is a washout as a leader. He's weak and self-serving.

Travis Bickle

February 19th, 2009 7:25pm Report this comment

Ah Verity, how nice to be reminded of the classic Monty Python sketch;

"sorry guv I scratched the record"
"sorry guv I scratched the record"
"sorry guv I scratched the record"

Stephen

February 19th, 2009 7:28pm Report this comment

No-one is going to persuade me that there is not at least £50 billion that could be cut off Govt recurrent expenditure in short order. Make a bonfire of the quangos for a start, and chop all the consultancy and grand projects such as NHS software and ID cards. So what's to lose? I think people are fed up when they consider how much of their money the Govt is wasting. Come on Cameron - do it!

Trumpeter Lanfried

February 19th, 2009 7:40pm Report this comment

The Tories will have to grasp the nettle on Day one. Immediate ten per cent cut in public expenditure across the board, followed by a ruthless cull of quangos.

As Machiavelli explained, when it is necessary to inflict harm do it all at once.

Victor, NW Kent

February 19th, 2009 7:48pm Report this comment

oldrightie and Rodders have expressed my views almost perfectly and completely.
Heroic surgery is needed and the patient - that's us - needs to be informed of what is needed to keep him alive and the consequences. [Mind you, tree surgeons also practice the concept and the tree just puts up with it.]
The death we need is the death of deception if the economy is to survive.

Ice Floe Nils The Huskie (Star Gig with D Cameron)

February 19th, 2009 9:40pm Report this comment

Stephen - I agree about the quangoes. They serve no purpose for the taxpayer. They serve only as apparachiks who work against the citizenry.

Shut them all down tomorrow and their absence will not be noticed.

quadratus

February 19th, 2009 11:10pm Report this comment

Iain Martin said it all n this mornings DT.
"A 13year old boy has fathered a cild by a 15 yer old girl. It then emerged thatthe various members of the family account for £30,OOOp.a.of benefits a year and noone involved works.
Six average taxpayers get up every morning and go to work so that such families don't have to"
What a stupid system;no wonder the country is bankrupt

Truly exasperated

February 19th, 2009 11:46pm Report this comment

Surely one problem about getting rid of waste (pointless jobs), means that these people will then become unemployed and require doll money? I am certainly not advocating keeping them, the pointless gits. Look what that centralist, control-freak, power-hungry beast of a Labour party has done to us. I hate them. We are truly screwed. Emigration is the only answer. Actually, emigration after revolution. I need some catharsis - I need to see Brown in pain, getting really hurt. I can't go on with my life until I feel as though he has paid, and just getting voted out is simply not enough. Nor is death. Torture is required.

Labour Matters

February 20th, 2009 12:44am Report this comment

//For instance, there's been the constant drip, drip, drip of Labour leadership speculation, which undermines Brown's position within his own party.//

The only truth in that sentence is that there's been a lot of speculation. Undermined? Not one jot.

Verity

February 20th, 2009 3:43am Report this comment

Quadratus - Easy. Don't give them dole. Animals don't need dole. They pull their weight or get put out of the pack. The heart warms ...

JONNY

February 20th, 2009 10:28am Report this comment

'Michael Howard won the election for the Conservatives in England. John Major was a steady hand on the tiller etc etc etc (not to forget Master 5 More Days to save The Pound)

CHOCOLATE ORANGE INSPECTOR -
if you go on like this you're going to force me to be rather rude about some highly undistinguished (to put it mildly) Tory Also-Rans.
By all means attack Cameron if you must but do make an effort to tell a hawk from a handsel.

Wily Trout

February 20th, 2009 11:50am Report this comment

The Tories can abolish the state education bureaucracy - apart from one secretary per school to process admissions. The school improvement advisors et al have no useful purpose other than to prop up the Labour party and act out its social engineering aims. And at £60.50 pw jobseeker's allowance there will be a huge saving from the current hundreds of salaries above £60k.

David Cameron's New Parka - Worn Only Once

February 20th, 2009 1:55pm Report this comment

Jonny - You are as free to be as rude as the moderators allow. I won't be altering my posts or my thinking in order to avoid incurring your wrath. And I am familiar with hawks, but have no idea what a handsel is, so your studied insult loses a little of its sting.

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